The Best of Times, the Worst of Times
Artemis and SpaceX
This really is a “best of times, worst of times” sort of moment here in early April 2026. Let’s start by accentuating the positive…
So far, so good for the Artemis II crew’s goal to circumavigate the moon – NASA’s first moon mission since 1972.
As noted here yesterday, Elon Musk figured the hours before launch was as good a time as any to file for SpaceX’s IPO.
For the moment, SpaceX’s financials are still a black box. We won’t know more until we get closer to the actual IPO day – and that day is not yet set in the calendar.
“One date I’ve heard floated,” says Paradigm tech-investing specialist Ray Blanco, “is Musk’s birthday – June 28, when he turns 55. Another is earlier in the month, a rare planetary alignment June 8 and 9.”
June 9 has the added advantage of indulging Musk’s penchant for juvenile humor. 6/9. Get it?
The excitement about SpaceX is palpable – but how does it stack up as a viable play for retail investors?
The IPO values the company at $1.75 trillion, while SpaceX generates about $15 billion in annual revenue.
“Now compare that,” says Davis Wilson of our sister e-letter The Million Mission, “to some of the other largest companies in the world:
- Amazon — $2.3T valuation with $717B in revenue
- Meta Platforms — $1.5T valuation with $201B in revenue
- Broadcom — $1.5T valuation with $68B in revenue
- Tesla — $1.4T valuation with $95B in revenue
“There’s no denying it,” says Davis. “SpaceX is pricey.”
The market data firm PitchBook says the $1.75 trillion valuation is “not so crazy – under certain conditions.” PitchBook forecasts SpaceX will generate $150 billion in annual revenue by 2040.
“That means SpaceX IPO investors are paying ~12x revenue on numbers 15 years away.”
Again, we still don’t have SpaceX’s financials. “But if SpaceX isn't forecasting to hit $150B in revenue until 2040,” says Davis...
“…I'm running (not walking) away from this IPO.”
[Editor’s note: As this e-letter hits your inbox, James Altucher and Ray Blanco have convened an urgent briefing for Altucher’s Investment Network subscribers. “Something is happening with the SpaceX IPO that I don't think most people fully appreciate yet,” says James — “and I'm not willing to let it pass without saying something.”
If you’re a current subscriber and you’re missing the live event, watch your inbox later today for a link to the replay and transcript.]
More to come about SpaceX in the weeks ahead. In the meantime, we pivot to the worst of times…
War’s Almost Over (Not)
Well… your editor’s skepticism yesterday about the “War’s Almost Over” narrative has been vindicated.
As you’re probably aware, the president drove a stake into the heart of that narrative during his televised speech last night – begging many questions along the way.
The reaction in the oil price was instantaneous. Here’s a 24-hour chart of West Texas Intermediate starting at noon EDT yesterday.
Stock futures, meanwhile, took an immediate nosedive – and the S&P 500 tumbled 1.5% on the open at 9:30 a.m. EDT this morning.
Then around an hour later came a headline…
It’s Oman that sits on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. In response to the news, the S&P leaped higher – erasing all of those early losses – while the oil price pulled back a bit.
Too bad nobody bothered to actually read the statement from Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency more carefully: “An Iranian deputy foreign minister said Tehran and Oman are working toward establishing a joint protocol to ensure safe maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz in the post-war period… He noted that Iran is currently in a state of war and that it is unrealistic to expect peacetime rules to apply under such conditions.” [Emphasis ours]
At last check, the S&P is down about a quarter-percent on the day. The losses in the Dow and the Nasdaq are a little steeper while the small-cap Russell 2000 is in the green.
As you can see above, the reaction to the Iran-Oman talks was more muted in the oil market: As we get closer to hitting “send” on today’s edition, a barrel of West Texas Intermdiate still fetches just under $111.
Precious metals sold off hard on the president’s speech – gold off $105 on the day at $4,652 and silver down three bucks to $71.85. In the bigger picture, gold is still in conoslidation mode after that hyperbolic move in January.
Bitcoin is back below $67,000 but Ethereum is still comfortably over $2,000.
With the markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday, there’s an additional day in which Washington can escalate the conflict and hope that the market reaction come Sunday night and Monday will be more muted than it would be otherwise.
But let’s look beyond the next three days and into the next three weeks…
The Next Three Weeks
“Wow! That was awful. Was Trump sedated? His monotone, delusional delivery reminded me of the character Dustin Hoffman played in Rainman,” writes the former CIA officer Larry Johnson on his blog.
Only Trump’s most fervent devotees like Mark Levin and the New York Post editorial board thought it was a good speech. Even partisans like Alex Jones are turning into panicans…
“Trump plowed no new territory,” Johnson continues. “Instead, he provided a Reader’s Digest summary of his recent Truth Social posts… i.e., Iran is defeated, the Iranian Navy and Air Force are destroyed, victory is ours, but we’re going to bomb the hell out of them over the next three weeks.”
In that same time frame, “Iran will continue to degrade and demolish the US bases and equipment that is in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.”
The president also repeated his previous threat to immiserate everyday Iranians by taking out the country’s power grid.
Johnson again: “If he does that, along with Israel, Iran will turn off the lights in Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait.
“Iran’s ability to do this is a direct consequence of the depletion of the US air defense systems — i.e., the Patriot missile batteries and the THAAD. Iran also will retain its choke hold on the Strait of Hormuz — even if the US decides to put troops on Kharg Island or some other piece of Iranian territory.”
This outcome is not yet priced into markets.
Leave aside the news: Just from a chart standpoint, if West Texas Intermediate breaks above $120… it’s blue sky all the way to $160.
➢ By the way, just putting this on the record: The headlines this week about Trump wanting to exit NATO? That’s because after Iran, the war hawks have their sights set on Turkey next. (Turkey has belonged to NATO since 1952). Like Iran, Turkey never did anything to threaten Americans in America – but it does stand in the way of Israel’s aim for hegemony in the Middle East.
Great Moments In Advertising
The government of Scotland has beclowned itself with a new ad campaign promoting bus tours in the Highlands…
The scenery is breathtaking… wondrous… and not Scotland.
“Eagle-eyed social media users noticed that the road had bright green crash barriers and a green bus - sights which are not familiar in the north of Scotland,” reports the BBC.
“They suggested it appeared to be the Changbai Mountain area near the border of China and North Korea.
“Transport Scotland confirmed that an incorrect image was provided by an external marketing agency and has now been removed from communication packs.”
The head of Scotland’s leading tourism nonprofit is appalled at how the government threw its ad agency under the (tour) bus. "Blaming a marketing agency is shameless,” says Willie Cameron, director of Highland Tourism.
"Why did nobody in the marketing team at Transport Scotland ask where the picture was taken?"
Why indeed. Betcha nobody pays for this with their job…
Mailbag: Wisdom From a Veteran Reader
After a few days of complaints from newer readers, some of our longer-term customers are chiming in and rising to our defense. To wit…
“I don’t see how anyone who is only paying, say, $250, for a financial newsletter can expect specific recommendations that are going to make them a bunch of cash in short order. At that price all I can reasonably expect is general commentary on market trends and some guidance on how generally to invest. Any specific recommendations are icing on the cake.
“On the other hand, I expect to pay $1,500 or more for counsel and recommendations that are going to make me real money as a trader.
“All that said, I do find your marketing approach (shared by many other newsletter publishers) quite obnoxious. Just tell me up front that you’ve got another product to sell that is pricey and not for everybody but could make me a lot of money with a certain strategy or whatever, and I’ll decide whether to subject myself to the endless sales pitch. Don’t make me sit through endlessly repetitive hype before finally telling me what it is you’re selling. I find that manipulative and insulting.
“I do appreciate those companies that, after a couple minutes of the video, allow the option for reading a pdf, which I can scan in much less time and see what you’re selling much quicker. (I can’t recall that you do that.)
“But I also understand that your marketing works, as I suppose my many expensive newsletter subscriptions prove! So I know you’re not going to change your tactics just because some of us whine about them.
“In any case, I do value your work and believe every penny I’ve spent with Paradigm is worth it!”
Dave responds: Thank you for the kind words.
Even our $50-a-year entry-level newsletters offer at least one investment recommendation a month. But as I said earlier this week, the plays have a months-long or even years-long timeframe – and they’re not intended as moonshots. Moonshot plays are limited to the higher-priced advisories.
About our marketing approach: As you concede, it brought you in the door. I can relate – I was once a customer like you before deciding to make the newsletter industry my second career. (As it happens, today marks the start of my 20th year in the biz.)
As far as I know, we offer transcript options on many, though not all, of our sales presentations. As for their length, it comes back to one of the truisms of direct marketing: “The more you tell, the more you sell.”
A/B testing has proven it out over time. It held true in the days of printed sales letters sent via the Postal Service – and, shocking as it might seem, it still holds true in the short-attention-span TikTok era.
“Right on point about Jamie Dimon,” a reader writes after yesterday’s edition.
“Do not need a lecture from a financial federal money bailout boy.”
Another reader appreciated your editor dunking on Fed chair Jerome Powell the day before. “Thanks for calling out Powell as he embarks on his revisionism tour.
“I posit that he gets away with it because memory is a vestigial organ in America. Thanks for ‘exercising yours and your readers. (P.S. great comparison to Pontius Pilate in this, the holiest of weeks.)”
Dave: Thank you. I had qualms about the subject line “Pontius Pilate Powell” given the proximity to Easter. I don’t mind offending people when it comes to politics now and then – but religion is another matter!
But I ran it past our VP of Research Aaron Gentlzer, and he was fine with it. And after the issue went out, the subject line won raves from Rude Awakening editor Sean Ring, a cradle Catholic. Can’t ask for more validation than that!
