Update: Trump’s Quest for Critical Minerals

Update: Critical Minerals

It’s not big headline news… but quietly, behind the scenes, the Trump administration is following through on a program that Paradigm’s Jim Rickards labels the “American birthright.”

As a brief refresher, the Trump White House is keen to tap into the mineral wealth on federal lands — mostly west of the Mississippi — valued at up to $150 trillion.

One small example of this follow-through in recent days: The U.S. Geological Survey will issue $5 million in grants to states that find critical minerals in mine waste.

“Minerals, such as germanium, are essential for high-performance computer chips used in applications that weren’t even dreamed of when old mines closed,” explains Jamey Jones, science coordinator for the USGS Earth Mapping Resources Initiative.

“Germanium often occurs with zinc in ore, and it might have been left behind in mine waste when zinc ore was processed.”

Note well: China banned U.S.-bound exports of germanium late last year.

A lot of mine waste tends to lie close to the surface of old mine sites. That makes it both cheaper and quicker to bring into production versus an entirely new mine.

A more significant example — and a sign of things to come — turns up this week in a Bloomberg story.

“The Trump administration granted the final federal permit for a mine in Idaho that will produce gold and antimony, a critical mineral used in munitions and other applications.

“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers issued the Clean Water Act permit needed for Perpetua Resources Corp.’s Stibnite project in Idaho. The move was facilitated by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the chair of the National Energy Dominance Council, according to a statement from his department.”

There’s still a long road for Perpetua to travel here — it needs to line up financing and state permits. But the company estimates this one project can meet over one-third of U.S. antimony demand during its first six years of production.

Note well: China also banned U.S.-bound exports of antimony late last year.

In addition to military uses, antimony is used for flame retardants and lead-acid batteries.

Perpetua trades under the ticker PPTA. Like many pre-production miners, it’s more of a wing and a prayer than it is money in the bank.

The Paradigm analysts have steered clear of it thus far — not least because there are better opportunities elsewhere, especially in gold. Readers of Jim Rickards’ The Situation Report know exactly what we’re talking about.

“When President Trump reopened our mineral-rich federal lands, he completely altered the gold investing landscape,” Jim says — “and supercharged its profit potential.”

As Jim sees it, the president’s initiatives have opened a new “Supergold Window” unlike anything we’ve seen before.

That includes the gold-mining booms of the late 1970s and the early 2010s.

“If you’re not invested in gold yet, or you’re looking to supercharge your gold gains,” says Jim, “this is your shot to target 50x gains by 2026.”

That’s why Jim recently convened an event called the Supergold Summit — which you can watch right away at this link.

The Day After

It’s the day after the latest bond-market freakout — one that was a major drag on stocks.

Yesterday the U.S. Treasury auctioned off a slug of 20-year bonds. Long story short, the reaction was unenthusiastic. (Colleague Sean Ring ably breaks down the mechanics of what happened in today’s Rude Awakening.)

The “meh” uptake of those 20-year T-bonds spooked bond traders. They sold off 30-year T-bonds hard, sending yields shooting higher. As we write this morning, the 30-year yield sits at 5.1%, the highest in over 18 months.

Perhaps the auction went over poorly because traders were hearing the rumblings from Washington, D.C. The president’s budget-busting “big beautiful bill” was on the verge of passing the House.

Which it did early this morning.

It was a shameful but all-too-typical episode by 21st-century Washington standards. Much arm-twisting and horse-trading — and no time in which congress members could actually read a 1,116-page bill in its entirety.

We haven’t read it either — but it appears the big highlights of the bill are mostly unchanged from a couple days ago.

• The Trump tax cuts enacted in 2017 remain in place
• Taxes on tips and overtime are eliminated (but only through 2028!)
• The SALT deduction for state and local taxes rises from the current $10,000 to $40,000 — which was the only way blue-state Republicans were going to vote “yes.”
• The debt ceiling will be raised by $4 trillion.

All of this in exchange for promises that future Congresses will get spending under control.

Those promises weren’t good enough for three Republicans who broke ranks. Maryland’s Andy Harris voted “present” while Kentucky’s Thomas Massie and Ohio’s Warren Davidson voted “no.”

All the other alleged spending hawks toed the party line, content to load an additional $3.3 trillion in debt on future generations over the next decade.

Now it’s onto the Senate — where changes are likely but the broad outlines will stay the same: tax cuts with no meaningful spending cuts to offset them.

By Rep. Massie’s calculations, the typical family of four will gain $1,600 from the tax cuts — while putting them on the hook for $16,000 of future interest payments on the national debt.

The Markets Today (and a Forecast Fulfilled)

The stock market is still recovering from yesterday’s shock.

The S&P 500 ended yesterday down 1.6% at 5,845. Checking our screens this morning, it’s little changed.

Defying the gloom, however, are shares of Fannie Mae (FNMA) — up nearly 20% after the president said he’s giving “very serious consideration” to taking the mortgage giant private.

Kudos to the Paradigm analysts who correctly anticipated this development (even if it hasn’t come to fruition yet)...

• Dan Amoss recommended FNMA in Jim Rickards’ Situation Report last summer; readers have racked up a 710% gain to date

• Chris Cimorelli talked up FNMA last October during our “America’s Next Move” gathering in Baltimore

• Davis Wilson told readers of The Million Mission in February that FNMA is an “extremely rare 5x return opportunity.”

Which suggests the profit potential is only now starting to be realized…

Bitcoin is creeping still higher into record territory, now $111,384.

The flagship crypto eclipsed its previous $106,000 record yesterday. Some of that action was investors looking for a safe haven after the rotten Treasury auction. But it was also a Senate vote clearing the way for passage of the crypto-friendly GENIUS Act. A final vote might come before the end of the week.

Not much joy in the commodity complex today. Gold is back below $3,300 and silver back below $33. Crude is down nearly a buck to $60.74 after news that the OPEC+ countries are mulling over still another production increase.

Great Moments in Marketing

Someone in Microsoft’s marketing department didn’t do their research.

Microsoft recently posted a video on social media claiming that its top models of Copilot+ PCs are faster than an Apple MacBook Air.

OK, never mind the cringeworthy production values. (As one wag said in the YouTube comments, “Was this comically low budget ad made with Windows Movie Maker 2 and a 5 MP camera from 2003?”)

What puts this video in the “epic fail” bucket is the fact that the MacBook Air that’s the subject of the comparison is no longer being made.

That’s right, Microsoft’s latest and greatest is 58% faster than an M3 MacBook Air — which was replaced earlier this year with a new model featuring an M4 chip.

How does it compare with the new version you wonder? Macworld ran tests on eight Windows models from five manufacturers. The speed improvements versus an M4 MacBook Air were as little as 2.7% and at most were 19.4%.

Writes the magazine’s Roman Loyola: “Imagine that video, but instead it says, ‘Top Copilot+ PCs are up to 19.4% faster than a MacBook Air with M4’.”

Shades of Apple’s old “Hello, I’m a Mac” campaign, huh?

Of course, that was from a time when Steve Jobs was still around and Apple products were still reliable and user-friendly. But that’s a rant for another day…

Mailbag: Biden, Reagan

“Speaking about being cynical (or just realistic), in the wake of the revelation that former president Biden has cancer I'm not at all surprised that it was kept hidden from the American people,” writes one of our regulars. “Even though it seems like Biden and those around him knew for quite some time.

“What really bothers me about the whole thing is that with his dementia he was almost certainly not capable of making his own decisions, which then implies that in spite of his advanced medical conditions someone else made the decision to try to run for re-election for him. Asking a friend to help jog my memory, there were some in the DNC establishment that opposed him running for a second term, but I recall his wife and family backed him the whole way, and even some time ago attempted an interview to give the appearance that everything was fine.

“To think that a close family member or loved one would try to use someone in that manner toward the end of their life leaves a sick feeling in my stomach. I'm also reminded of some similar goings on with our other politicians, Feinstein being wheeled into the Capitol Building asking, ‘Where are we going?’ McConnell appearing to have a small stroke while talking on camera and so on.

“While these characters are hardly deserving of sympathy, I still feel bad seeing them wheeled around like corpses with sunglasses on when they should be retired. For the ones who still have their faculties I can hardly fathom why they keep going back instead of retiring. At this point they've got enough money to pass on to their heirs and they certainly can't take any of their money with them when they go.

“Could it be an obsession with power, control or ideology? Or could they also be forced into it somehow? I don't know. I'd figure I'm more like you than some of the others on the internet though: I take no joy in their suffering. I'd much rather help the people who are in need.

“As you had mentioned last week that the 5 being a financial newsletter wasn't quite the right place to discuss philosophical thoughts and inclinations, I've got to ask, where could I go to read what you've got to say on that? I'm interested in what you have to say.”

Dave responds: There’s nothing I can say today that I didn’t say already just after the debate meltdown last summer.

Except this: Even now, the chatter among Democratic pundits is limited to the proposition that Biden shouldn’t have run for re-election — ignoring the question of whether he was qualified to actually occupy the office.

“Ronald Reagan was a pathetic hypocrite,” a reader writes,

“When they were saying, 'Just say no,’ they were importing enormous amounts of cocaine. They knew exactly what was going on.

“Reagan is responsible for the insanity of warrantless search and seizure based on a nonexistent ‘war on drugs.’ The DEA used seized cash to expand their influence and power. They are now completely out of control.

“Reagan is undeserving of his so-called revolution. It’s quite sad that people just won’t wake up.”

Dave: I’m not… really sure… what brought on your complaint?

In the last two months I’ve had occasion to bring up Reagan literally once. And my mention last week of his “Morning in America” campaign theme of 1984 was more of a fond reflection on the era than an endorsement of any Reagan policies.

“Morning in America” really was a cultural touchstone: In their book The Fourth Turning, William Strauss and Neil Howe marked that campaign as the pivot point between a Second Turning “Awakening” and a Third Turning “Unraveling.”

But vibes are one thing and results are another. I mentioned the Contra cocaine episode in a reflection on Reagan last year, as well as how he tripled the national debt in two terms — a feat no one has pulled off since.

And on the occasions Reagan’s instincts were good, the deep state ran roughshod over him. More’s the pity…

Best regards,

Dave Gonigam
Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets