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Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

China imports almost everything it needs to keep its modern economy running, from crude oil to iron ore — with one crucial exception.

Chinese Squeeze Play

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Gold: It&rsquo;s Not All About Trump
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The spot price of gold has followed gold futures over $4,000 for the first time. To hear the mainstream tell it, it&rsquo;s all about Trumpy-Trump-Trump and how he ruined everything.
It&rsquo;s loud and proud in today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal &mdash; front page, above the fold&hellip;
<blockquote>&hellip; gold has rocketed higher due in part to anxiety that President Trump could upend the postwar economic order underpinned by the U.S. dollar&hellip;</blockquote>
<blockquote>Trump&rsquo;s attempt to reorder global trade has buoyed prices and upended growth forecasts. White House pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is threatening the independence of one of the financial system&rsquo;s bulwarks.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The international media get a little closer to the truth.
&ldquo;Trump&rsquo;s tariffs and battles against the Federal Reserve are not the only factors driving gold&rsquo;s continued upward trajectory,&rdquo; says an article at Al Jazeera&rsquo;s website.
For starters, Japan&rsquo;s ruling party has a new leader: Sanae Takaichi is on track to become the country&rsquo;s first woman prime minister. She&rsquo;s campaigning on a platform of big deficits, tax cuts and &ldquo;stimulus&rdquo; payments to households.
&ldquo;Her victory,&rdquo; Al Jazeera&rsquo;s Erin Hale writes, &ldquo;upset markets as the yen &mdash; another &lsquo;safe haven asset&rsquo; for some investors &mdash; dropped to a 13-month low on Tuesday, according to the Reuters news agency. Gold, it appears, became a go-to alternative.&rdquo;
And then there&rsquo;s the turmoil in France &mdash; where a never-ending budget crisis has taken down yet another prime minister, this one after only 26 days. France will likely face nonstop turmoil until President Emmanuel Macron&rsquo;s second term is up &mdash; and that&rsquo;s still 18 months away.
France and Germany form the twin pillars of the euro currency &mdash; and Germany&rsquo;s economy has been in the tank for nearly three years. So the euro is no viable alternative to the dollar: Gold wins again.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But this isn&rsquo;t just a 2025 story: Gold&rsquo;s run-up has been years in the making.
Looking back, the logical starting point is February 2022 &mdash; when Russia invaded Ukraine and the Biden administration responded with unprecedented sanctions, freezing the dollar-based assets of Russia&rsquo;s central bank.
At that moment, every government on less-than-friendly terms with Washington came to the same realization: If it can happen to the Russians, it can happen to us too.
It is no coincidence that central bank accumulation of gold leaped to record levels in 2022. The furious pace of buying has continued ever since.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/57G6GhLFwBlKlfMOguqmG1/180019b15f70f77a8bbc258f1f0b31a9/2.6_5Bullets_Chart.png" alt="Central Banks Back Up the Truck" width="540px" />
That&rsquo;s because gold has a unique advantage over other assets, as our Jim Rickards has reminded readers for years: &ldquo;Gold is a physical nondigital asset that cannot be stolen, frozen or seized provided it is in safe storage.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And the gold story is about more than just Washington&rsquo;s adversaries looking out for their own interests since 2022.
Going into the election last year&hellip; your editor ruffled a lot of partisan feathers by saying that no matter who won, the trajectory would be similar: More war, more dollar debasement.
Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris uttered the term &ldquo;federal spending&rdquo; once during their debate last year.
The burst of spending during the last year of the Trump 45 administration and the first year of the Biden administration was not a one-time response to COVID, after which we went back to &ldquo;normal.&rdquo;
Instead, federal spending was put onto a permanently higher trajectory&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1hahbVFl8Sccb7v2vMMRvg/87c0453ed1fdd25cc06ddefaad7eab7c/5_Bullets_Chart_091124.png" alt="No going back to normal" width="540px" />
The explosion of spending and debt since 2020 resulted in vicious consumer price inflation &mdash; the kind unseen since the 1970s.
The mild inflation we experienced during the 2010s is now a distant memory. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/declare-your-independence-from-inflation">And as we can&rsquo;t remind you often enough</a>, once inflation sails past 5% &mdash; as it did in 2022 &mdash; it typically takes a decade to get back to &ldquo;normal&rdquo; 2% inflation.
Gold experienced a stupendous rally during the inflationary 1970s &mdash; starting at $35 an ounce in 1971, climaxing in a blow-off top over $800 in January 1980.
As the saying goes, history never repeats exactly &mdash; but it does tend to rhyme. That&rsquo;s why projections of a $15,000 gold price and even <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-usd27-533-gold-solution">Jim Rickards&rsquo; math-driven scenario of $27,533</a> are not only plausible but probable.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> All that said&hellip; in the short term, &ldquo;silver and gold have blown through any and all reasonable levels,&rdquo; our Greg Guenthner advises his Trading Desk readers. &ldquo;To say the metals are &lsquo;overextended&rsquo; is a massive understatement.
&ldquo;So we have a situation where silver and gold are desperately in need of a pullback. On the other hand, the inflation and debasement narratives are only growing.
&ldquo;In my mind, both can be true.
&ldquo;I think we'll see gold and silver higher in the longer term. I don't think it&rsquo;s the blow-off top yet! But from a trading perspective, I need to wait for a better entry. Some form of pullback needs to materialize to allow me to get involved.&rdquo;
But today is not the day. Checking our screens, the spot price of gold has shot up $58 to another record of $4,041. And silver is up an eye-popping $1.47 to $49.22. The 2011 high of $50 is within reach.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Stocks: A November (and December) to Remember
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As for the stock market, &ldquo;There is an extremely high probability that we finish 2025 strong,&rdquo; says our hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta.
Yes, stocks are stretched right now and he expects some near-term turbulence&hellip; but history points to strength during the fourth quarter. Check out these charts from Bespoke Investment Group, going back 80 years&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7p8wFGVwLRC9sS9Ihpm2Td/1573c2193a4b6358630dd3676f765b35/PostWW2.png" alt="post wwii" width="540px" />
&ldquo;You can see that since World War II, the S&amp;P 500 has been up almost double the average for all quarters and positive almost 80% of the time,&rdquo; says Enrique. &ldquo;Those are both strong returns and a high probability of a positive outcome.&rdquo;
Another fact to chew on: Whenever the stock market notches a new all-time high in October &mdash; as it&rsquo;s done a handful of times this month &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 ends the fourth quarter in the green 90% of the time.
And the average jump for the quarter is almost 5%. That&rsquo;s according to figures from Carson Investment Research going back to 1950.
What&rsquo;s behind the pattern? Consider this: &ldquo;Most professional money managers are compensated based on their performance at the end of the calendar year,&rdquo; Enrique says.
&ldquo;So they will do everything they can to see the market go higher by year-end.
&ldquo;If a money manager is flat (or down) going into year-end, then they probably won&rsquo;t be aggressive. A money manager who&rsquo;s up double digits, on the other hand, will buy every dip.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Which seems to be what&rsquo;s going on today.
After a down day yesterday the S&amp;P 500 is up over half a percent as we write &mdash; in record territory once more at 6,753. The Dow&rsquo;s gain is weaker, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s stronger.
Among the big movers is AST SpaceMobile &mdash; up 10.2% on news that it will partner with Verizon to provide wireless service via satellite. ASTS is a workhorse holding in James Altucher&rsquo;s entry-level newsletter Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network &mdash; now up 426% from its original recommendation in January 2021.
<blockquote>➢ Economic number of note: Curiously, the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; is not affecting the weekly oil inventory figures from the Energy Department. This week&rsquo;s numbers show a drawdown in gasoline and distillates (diesel, fuel oil). With that, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up over a buck to $62.85.</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Follow-Up: Swimming Naked With First Brands
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> If there&rsquo;s a potential catalyst for short-term turbulence in the stock market, it&rsquo;s the continuing fallout from the bankruptcy of the auto parts maker First Brands.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-check-engine-light">Since we waved the caution flag a week ago today</a>, large players in the finance sector have started disclosing their exposure to First Brands.
The Swiss banking giant UBS was up first. Funds operated by UBS are swimming naked to the tune of $500 million. If The Wall Street Journal is to be believed, much of that exposure is to customers that owe money to First Brands.
Then today Jefferies Financial Group disclosed that funds run by its Point Bonita Capital unit are owed an even bigger sum &mdash; $715 million &mdash; from companies that bought First Brands parts. (The news has sent JEF shares down 1.3% as we write.)
Both companies promise they&rsquo;ll act to enforce investors&rsquo; rights. But considering that First Brands evidently pledged the same invoices more than once as collateral on the company&rsquo;s borrowed money&hellip; that could prove to be an uphill climb.
Look for more confessions in the days to come. One of them might be enough to make the stock market stumble a bit.
Wide-scale systemic risk, you ask? Probably not in the near term &mdash; but Jim Rickards&rsquo; top analyst Dan Amoss is on the lookout for any tremors that might herald a major earthquake.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A reader passes along today&rsquo;s edition of government-shutdown memeage &mdash; which serves as a valuable reality check.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3Z1pYw4oLclwIXzntkuBfH/57d1ede5cedc9e654c72f7764859ba4f/GovernmentShutdown.png" alt="Government Shutdown" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" /> Mailbag: Kimmel, Again
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I had to give you a dislike on your email,&rdquo; says a late-arriving note from a reader after your editor took on the Disney-Jimmy Kimmel story.
&ldquo;The point of the FCC getting after Jimmy Kimmel is for his lying accusation regarding Charlie Kirk's assassination.
&ldquo;It's one thing to disparage MAGA, but to directly accuse MAGA of shooting Charlie Kirk should not be supported on FCC taxpayer-funded airwaves. Assassination is a serious criminal offense and to accuse a people of that would equate to Hitler blaming the Jews for Germany's problems; therefore it's OK to final solution them.
&ldquo;I think [FCC chair Brendan] Carr was addressing the blasphemous LIE and false accusation. How do you think Mr Trump is winning in court? He's winning because they LIED and defamed him.&nbsp;
&ldquo;It used to be that a news organisation had to tell the truth. Now lies and false accusations are considered free speech AND normal. Those men that you cited should know better.&rdquo;
Dave responds: The issue is not whether Jimmy Kimmel lied. The issue is whether government has a role as the arbiter of truth. The Founders would be appalled at the suggestion it does.
But don&rsquo;t take it from me. Take it from conservative talk-radio host Clay Travis. He partners every weekday on the airwaves with Buck Sexton, editor of the Paradigm newsletter Money &amp; Power.
Mr. Travis says it was wrong a few years ago when Disney cancelled Roseanne Barr&rsquo;s ABC sitcom and when Disney dumped Gina Carano from the streaming series The Mandalorian &mdash; and he says it was wrong for Disney to suspend Kimmel.
&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t like the concept &mdash; as someone who talks for a living &mdash; of any person in any creative industry losing their job for any one thing they say &mdash; Roseanne, Gina or Jimmy,&rdquo; Travis tweeted last month. &ldquo;I think we all lose in creative spaces that sometimes require pushing the speech envelope and taking risks when that standard is applied, right, left or independent politically.
&ldquo;But you can&rsquo;t only notice the issue when it happens to people on the same side of your own politics. Especially since the left created the cancel culture universe &mdash; which I&rsquo;ve consistently opposed my entire career &mdash; and now is upset because they are being held to the standards they created&hellip;
&ldquo;This will probably make me the only person on social media to defend Roseanne, Gina and Jimmy. As someone who people have tried to cancel more than almost anyone in media for having &lsquo;unpopular&rsquo; opinions, I&rsquo;m proud of that.
&ldquo;If your principle shifts based on who has power, you actually have no principles.&rdquo;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S. Mr. Travis and Mr. Sexton are scheduled to appear together tomorrow afternoon during the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit in Nashville. And Buck Sexton is set to join our rollicking Whiskey Bar roundtable.
Look for highlights from tomorrow&rsquo;s sessions during Friday&rsquo;s 5 Bullets.

Trump-10-8

The spot price of gold has followed gold futures over $4,000 for the first time. To hear the mainstream tell it, it’s all about Trump… 

Gold: It’s Not All About Trump

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Alaska Doctrine
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Another day, another acquisition for Uncle Sam&rsquo;s growing portfolio of natural resources companies.
&ldquo;The U.S. said it will take a 10% stake in Canadian minerals explorer Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a $35.6 million investment to secure critical energy and mining projects in Alaska,&rdquo; Bloomberg reported late yesterday.
In making the announcement, Donald Trump reversed the Biden administration&rsquo;s decision to nix a highway project called Ambler Road. Construction of Ambler Road will now give Trilogy access to vast deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium and germanium.
If the last of those two sound vaguely familiar, it&rsquo;s because China banned U.S.-bound exports of those metals last year. They&rsquo;re essential for high-end computer chips.
As we write this morning, shares of Trilogy (TMQ) are up 212% from yesterday&rsquo;s close. And a select group of Paradigm readers is very happy.
Our resident geologist Byron King talked up Trilogy last April during a livestream event from Jekyll Island, Georgia. He was certain the Trump administration would approve Ambler Road.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The Trilogy announcement comes only two business days after the rare-earth firm USA Rare Earth (USAR) said it was talking with the Trump administration &mdash; presumably about a similar arrangement.
As mentioned yesterday, members of the Paradigm Mastermind Group are benefiting from that one &mdash; with USAR shares up 89% in two months.
The deals are coming fast and furious since the first one three months ago &mdash; when the Pentagon announced it was taking a 15% stake in the rare-earth company MP Materials. Our readers reaped gains from that one, too.
Credit goes first and foremost to our macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards &mdash; who said in January the Trump administration intends to open up huge swaths of federally owned land to energy and mineral development. Potential value of the resources under that land &mdash; $150 trillion. The &ldquo;American Birthright,&rdquo; Jim called it.
In April, we directed your attention here in these 5 Bullets to a new wrinkle in the Birthright story: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the U.S. government was looking to invest in mining companies &mdash; as he put it, &ldquo;equity investment in each of these companies that&rsquo;s taking on China in critical minerals.&rdquo;
If you&rsquo;ve missed out on any of these opportunities, don&rsquo;t beat yourself up. There&rsquo;s more where these came from.

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That&rsquo;s because as 2025 starts drawing to a close, Jim Rickards says the &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; agenda is moving into Phase II.
During Phase II, the companies whose share prices will benefit most are the ones you couldn&rsquo;t possibly guess at.
That&rsquo;s because they don&rsquo;t extract oil and gas from the ground. Nor do they mine metals.
But under federal law, they could be only days away from becoming the most important stocks in the mining industry &mdash; signing contracts that could net up to $10 million a day.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2484433">And as Jim shows you when you follow this link</a>, there&rsquo;s historical precedent at work &mdash; unleashing the potential to make 200X your money in the next three years. If you missed out on Phase I (or even if you didn&rsquo;t), <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2484433">now&rsquo;s the time to get the scoop on Phase II</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Gold $4K
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A day after Bitcoin set a record price, gold futures broke over $4,000 for the first time this morning &mdash; in what looks like a rush into non-dollar assets.
&ldquo;People are looking to short the dollar, but they are not quite sure what currency to purchase,&rdquo; says Nicky Shiels of the trading firm and precious metals refinery MKS Pamp. &ldquo;That uncertainty leads you straight to gold,&rdquo; she tells the Financial Times.
Even with the gold price up 50% this year, it&rsquo;s only now that institutional investors are tiptoeing toward gold as a long-term hold &mdash; &ldquo;for the first time in a long time&rdquo; as the head of metals research at Bank of America describes it.
At the same time, the big investment bank Morgan Stanley says it&rsquo;s time to rethink the traditional portfolio allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds &mdash; suggesting that bonds be cut to 20% with the other 20% devoted to the Midas metal.
&ldquo;Gold looks a bit more attractive as a diversifier to long equity position than bonds do,&rdquo; is how Maya Bhandari from Neuberger Berman puts it to the FT.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> All that said, big winners &ldquo;get overbought and are subject to pullbacks,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
On the &ldquo;daily feed&rdquo; section of the Paradigm mobile app, Enrique says the gold price is now 25% above its 200-day moving average. &ldquo;Historically a premium above 20% is short-lived.&rdquo;
There&rsquo;ve been six times when gold has traded 20% or more above the 200 DMA. &ldquo;The average drawdown is 15% over 42 days.&rdquo;
That would send gold down to about $3,370 &mdash; which, we&rsquo;ll point out, was an all-time high only six months ago!
&ldquo;Maybe this time is different?&rdquo; Enrique muses. &ldquo;Earlier this year when gold was over 20% above the 200 DMA, it fell 7.2% in 17 days.&rdquo; A similar move from current levels would bring gold back to $3,675 &mdash; which was a record only last month!
While gold futures crossed $4,000 this morning, the spot price has yet to do the same. At last check, it&rsquo;s at $3,980. Meanwhile, silver has slipped back below $48 for the moment.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As for the stock market, it&rsquo;s taking a rest after a string of all-time closing highs.
The S&amp;P 500 is down about a third of a percent as we write &mdash; 6,715. The Dow is holding up better while the Nasdaq is down over a half percent.
Among the big movers today is the parent firm of the New York Stock Exchange, Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange. ICE shares leaped 4.6% in early trade after news the company
plans to invest $2 billion in the predictions site Polymarket.
As the mainstream sees it, ICE&rsquo;s investment could help Polymarket return to the United States. It exited the U.S. market in 2022 under pressure from the Biden administration.
But from our perch, here&rsquo;s what makes this move look singularly savvy: If stock trading is moving in the direction of the blockchain and tokenization, who&rsquo;s going to need exchanges and brokerages? Diversifying into the predictions market assures ICE&rsquo;s long-term survival.
<blockquote>➢ Congratulations are in order once again for Altucher's True Alpha Yesterday they collected 569% gains playing call options on a quantum computing firm. Sorry, this premium advisory is currently closed to new readers, but we&rsquo;ll let you know as soon as it reopens.</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Uptober: Mainstream Finance Embraces Crypto
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Uptober is upon us,&rdquo; says Paradigm crypto analyst Chris Campbell.
Bitcoin&rsquo;s price has risen in October for 10 of the last 11 years &mdash; logging an average gain just shy of 20%. Even as the price is pulling back from yesterday&rsquo;s record &mdash; $121,824 as we check our screens &mdash; it&rsquo;s up 6.7% so far this October.
&ldquo;Crypto ETF flows are on fire,&rdquo; Chris says. &ldquo;Last week&rsquo;s numbers: $3.24 billion into Bitcoin, $1.3 billion into Ethereum, $707 million into Solana.&rdquo;
Just as with gold, institutional acceptance is growing. Chris draws a sharp contrast between the evolving views of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon&hellip; and JPM analysts elbow-deep in research.
<blockquote>2020 (analyst): &ldquo;Bitcoin passed its &lsquo;first real stress test.' Higher.&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>2021 (Dimon): "Bitcoin is worthless..."</blockquote>
<blockquote>2021 (analyst): &ldquo;$146K is possible in coming years&hellip;&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>2023 (Dimon): "The only use case for it is crime..."</blockquote>
<blockquote>2023 (analyst): &ldquo;Store of value thesis will see BTC price double post-halving.&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>2025 May (Dimon): "It's not digital gold, but I guess we&rsquo;ll let you buy it. Go at it.&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>Last week (analyst): &ldquo;Bitcoin could reach $165K based on gold&rsquo;s record run.&rdquo;</blockquote>
As Chris sums up, &ldquo;JPMorgan&rsquo;s Bitcoin stance is basically: Dad hates it, but Mom started a secret stash in the attic years ago.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />More institutional acceptance: Standard &amp; Poor&rsquo;s just announced it&rsquo;s launching a new crypto index.
The S&amp;P Digital Markets 50 will comprise 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 stocks tied to crypto.
&ldquo;Historically,&rdquo; Chris observes, &ldquo;once assets become benchmarked, institutional inflows multiply. (ETFs give capital access. Indexes give capital permission.)&rdquo;
No, S&amp;P has not yet said which cryptos and stocks will go into the index. But Chris will engage in some informed speculation &mdash; and suss out some of the biggest potential winners &mdash; in today&rsquo;s issue of our sister e-letter Altucher Confidential. Watch your inbox.
[Editor&rsquo;s note: As with Enrique&rsquo;s gold observations, Chris&rsquo; crypto insights today come courtesy of the &ldquo;daily feed&rdquo; section of the Paradigm Press mobile app. The app is ready for download right now from both Apple&rsquo;s App Store and Google&rsquo;s Play Store. Enjoy!]
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief, Shutdown Edition
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Here&rsquo;s a double dose of shutdown memory today&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3jBrGAEpbZSVZvFksBkPZj/74807ce964ee0dac010be5cf6c3c55d8/working.png" alt="we are going to stop working" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3SVf9Me66XdBAyhDNWxe52/47615df24bd1cda6d2a6574c81f8fea3/shutdown.png" alt="shutdown" width="540px" />
Well yes, but TSA employees are working without pay until the shutdown is over, at which time they&rsquo;ll get back pay.
So far there are few reports of TSA employees calling in &ldquo;sick&rdquo;&hellip; but it&rsquo;s a different story for air traffic controllers.
&ldquo;Twelve Federal Aviation Administration facilities saw staffing shortages Monday night,&rdquo; says CNN. &ldquo;The control towers in Burbank, Phoenix and Denver had so-called &lsquo;staffing triggers&rsquo; reported in the public FAA operations plan. Other facilities that handle air traffic around airports in Newark, New Jersey; Jacksonville, Florida; Chicago; Washington, D.C.; and Indianapolis also were short staffed.&rdquo;
This is no small consideration for the hundreds of our readers making their way to Nashville for the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit starting Thursday.
To say nothing of the Paradigm editors who expect to appear on stage! Fingers crossed&hellip;
(If you&rsquo;re not joining our team in Nashville, look for conference highlights here in 5 Bullets starting Friday.)
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Maxwell Apartment, Dollar Coins
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;OMG, do large companies no longer do any research in their marketing?&rdquo; a reader writes in response to our item about Maxwell House downsizing to &ldquo;Maxwell Apartment.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Or do these marketing departments just charge forward with major rebrandings, come hell or high water? Has wokeness overtaken sane thinking?
&ldquo;Remember Cracker Barrel, you dummies&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On the subject of dollar coins, broached <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/americas-jv-with-xi">in yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>, a member of our Omega Wealth Circle writes&hellip;
&ldquo;I live in Ecuador, which dollarized its economy in 2000, after they blew up their local currency.
&ldquo;Here it is largely a cash economy, and dollar coins are in wide circulation, to the point that rarely do you see a $1 bill, and whenever anyone gets one, they try to spend it ASAP.
&ldquo;I have (just checked) four dollar coins in my pocket right now, and several rolls more on the shelf as these are spent. Even down here, where a dollar goes further than in the U.S., it just feels right that it is pocket change and I only reach for my wallet for bills if $5 and up.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Depending on who you want to believe, the reason dollar coins haven&rsquo;t caught on stateside is that $1 bills remain in circulation.
Which I suppose makes sense. When I lived in Buffalo during the late 1990s I&rsquo;d visit Ontario every so often to go hiking. Canada did away with $1 bills a few years earlier. I rather enjoyed the $1 coin (the &ldquo;loonie&rdquo;) and the $2 coin (the &ldquo;toonie&rdquo;).
Of course, that was a time when electronic payments were less common&hellip; and fiat currency went further than it does now!
(Oh, and you didn&rsquo;t need a passport to cross between Canada and the United States, either&hellip;)
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Alaska

Another day, another acquisition for Uncle Sam’s growing portfolio of natural resources companies.

The Alaska Doctrine

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Path to $10K Gold
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The frenzy stage for gold has not yet begun,&rdquo; Jim Rickards declared yesterday before a crowd of 700-plus at the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit in Nashville.
Precious metals were the object of much buzz among the crowd. Many in the audience found their attention divided &mdash; watching the speakers and taking notes, but at the same time checking their phones to monitor the wild action in gold and silver.
Gold exceeded $4,050 as attendees took their seats&hellip; only to watch it sink more than $100 by midafternoon. (This morning it&rsquo;s back to $3,997.)
Silver pushed past its 1980 and 2011 records, exceeding $51 briefly &mdash; only to plunge below $49. (Now it&rsquo;s approaching $50 again. Life comes at you fast.)
Jim&rsquo;s talk covered much territory &mdash; tariffs and the rumored Mar-a-Lago Accord among other topics &mdash; but the crowd was rapt as he laid out eight factors that will drive gold prices much higher from present levels.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> One of those factors we&rsquo;ll spotlight here: It&rsquo;s part mathematics, part psychology. Jim&rsquo;s laid it out to his readership before, but it&rsquo;s worth a revisit today.
&ldquo;Investors naturally focus on dollar gains in the price of gold,&rdquo; he explains. &ldquo;When gold goes from $1,000 per ounce to $2,000 per ounce, investors cheer the $1,000 gain. The same is true when gold goes from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce. Again, investors pat themselves on the back for another $1,000 per ounce gain.
&ldquo;What investors don&rsquo;t realize (at least initially) is that each $1,000 per ounce gain is easier than the one before.&rdquo;
It comes down to a psychological phenomenon called anchoring. &ldquo;The investor anchors on the amount $1,000 as a fixed gain and treats each such gain the same,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;In pure dollars, they are the same. You make $1,000 per ounce as each benchmark is passed.&rdquo;
But the percentage gain is progressively smaller. Gold moving from $1,000 to $2,000 is a 100% gain &mdash; but gold moving from $3,000 to $4,000 is only a 33% gain.
&ldquo;Because each $1,000 per ounce gain begins from a higher level, the percentage gain associated with each dollar gain is less. The increase from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. The increase from $9,000 to $10,000 per ounce is not much more than a good month&rdquo; &mdash; that is, an 11% jump.
Between the math and the psychology, &ldquo;this combination could propel gold prices to the $10,000 per ounce level in far less time than most analysts believe.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Spooky Synchronicity
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />There was a spooky synchronicity to our energy-and-mining specialist Byron King&rsquo;s talk yesterday.
For weeks he&rsquo;d been planning to discuss the shortages of minerals that are essential in the eyes of Pentagon planners.
Then came the news we mentioned off the top of yesterday&rsquo;s 5 Bullets: The Chinese government imposed steep new export controls on rare-earth elements &mdash; used in everything from smartphones to fighter jets.
Rare earths are the one natural resource China doesn&rsquo;t have to import &mdash; and as Byron showed in this presentation slide, China&rsquo;s dominance of the rare-earth space is &ldquo;uncontested.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3As1HiiOtifPsVbygrTpye/8749cd2d29923887a2939d2622d922ce/REE.png" alt="REE" width="540px" />
As yesterday wore on, the scope of China&rsquo;s new export restrictions came into sharp focus: Any company around the world that wants to sell a product with Chinese rare earths &mdash; even if those rare earths make up as little as 0.1% of the product&rsquo;s value &mdash; must get permission from Beijing.
That&rsquo;s going to be mighty tough sledding for the makers of semiconductors &mdash; which is probably what Beijing had in mind, given Washington&rsquo;s export controls on chips.
Turnabout may or may not be fair play, but turnabout it is.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On this day after Byron&rsquo;s talk, China&rsquo;s rare-earth restrictions have gotten Donald Trump&rsquo;s back up &mdash; and Mr. Market is freaking out.
On social media, Trump threatened a &ldquo;massive increase&rdquo; in tariffs on Chinese goods &mdash; with the current tariff truce between Washington and Beijing set to expire one month from today.
China is &ldquo;becoming very hostile,&rdquo; he posted. &ldquo;I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.&rdquo;
With that, a stock market that began the day mildly in the green has sunk deep into the red. At last check the S&amp;P 500 is down 1.25% to 6,650. The Dow&rsquo;s losses are narrower, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s steeper. (In contrast, the rare-earth names are ripping higher once again &mdash; USA Rare Earth, for instance, up 18%.)
The market&rsquo;s chill has spread into crude oil as well: A barrel of West Texas Intermediate is down over two bucks to $59.27 &mdash; a five-month low.
Crypto is catching cold, too &mdash; Bitcoin sinking toward $119,000 and Ethereum approaching $4,100.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The big economic number of the day isn&rsquo;t helping matters.
The University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index is still in the dumps at 55.0, far below its over-70 levels at the start of the year.
Often this number is simply a reflection of how well the stock market is doing &mdash; and it&rsquo;s been doing very well until today &mdash; but that&rsquo;s not the case with this month&rsquo;s report. &ldquo;Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers&rsquo; minds,&rdquo; says the Michigan survey team.
<blockquote>➢ Just in: The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release the September inflation numbers on Oct. 24, &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; notwithstanding. Maybe someone read our mention yesterday that without those numbers, the Social Security Administration can&rsquo;t set next year&rsquo;s cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients.</blockquote>
Today&rsquo;s sell-off was bound to happen sooner or later. The market had gone up too far, too fast. Our hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta would tell you that Trump&rsquo;s pique with China isn&rsquo;t the reason for today&rsquo;s drop, it&rsquo;s the excuse.
And with that in mind, we move on to Enrique&rsquo;s presentation in Nashville&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Party Like It&rsquo;s 1999
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Be aggressive,&rdquo; our trading pro Enrique Abeyta told the crowd yesterday about the AI bubble. &ldquo;This could last weeks, months, even years.&rdquo;
Late last year, Enrique earned some notoriety for forecasting that Nvidia would lose $1 trillion in market cap &mdash; and in short order, too.
Sure enough, that&rsquo;s exactly what happened between early January and early March &mdash; with more than half of that plunge coming on one day, Jan. 27 amid the freakout over the Chinese AI engine DeepSeek. (Remember that?)
As 2025 wore on, he began warning about an overbuild in AI infrastructure &mdash; an explosion of hardware capacity that will come into use one day, but not right away. He likened it to the overbuild of fiber-optic cable for the internet during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But while the story is destined to end in tears, the end is not nigh. Enrique says it&rsquo;s time to party like it&rsquo;s 1999.
Here in October 2025, NVDA has rebounded to a record share price and a stupendous $4.75 trillion market cap. As the old Wall Street saying goes, &ldquo;Don&rsquo;t fight the tape.&rdquo;
True to his trader&rsquo;s mentality, Enrique urged the crowd to ride the wave instead. Go for growth and not value: The market is chockablock with companies that can 10X their earnings.
And stay disciplined: Avoid big losses because they&rsquo;ll make you gun-shy, depriving yourself of the chance at big gains. Here&rsquo;s an eye-opening table from his slide deck&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3JKcV2EHO9Ahiglk7MYLbM/00c30ec72b122bb74f59662f6653e777/Loss.png" alt="loss" width="540px" />
He shared several names for the audience&rsquo;s consideration. We&rsquo;ll share one of them here: Coinbase. COIN is sure to prosper as digital assets rally alongside all things tech.
And his overarching guidance: &ldquo;It&rsquo;s not how much you make, it&rsquo;s how much you keep. Plan your trade and trade your plan.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />&ldquo;But Wait, There&rsquo;s More&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Really, we&rsquo;ve only scratched the surface with yesterday&rsquo;s presentations at the Paradigm Shift Summit.
Of course our AI and crypto authority James Altucher was a huge draw &mdash; slamming the banks for their outrageous fees and invasions of privacy. For him, the advent of stablecoins can&rsquo;t come soon enough. (And it will.)
&ldquo;Mr. 10X,&rdquo; Chris Cimorelli, laid out three picks with the potential to make 10 times your money over the next 12 months.
The sui generis Mason Sexton described an eerie recurring 36-year pattern in both the markets and global events. As he sees it, 2026 could turn out to be much like 1882 &mdash; a &ldquo;new Gilded Age.&rdquo;
Today&rsquo;s presentations promise to be just as compelling &mdash; capped off with a reprise of our 2018 &ldquo;Bitcoin versus gold&rdquo; debate. Once more Jim Rickards will take up the cause of the Midas metal while James Altucher makes the case for Bitcoin.
Today&rsquo;s crowd is smaller &mdash; because Day 2 of the Summit is limited to an inner circle of our readership.
They&rsquo;re an unusual group, really. They took advantage of a customer service loophole that allows them to access some of our most premium research for free. This loophole allows them access to a host of perks &mdash; including attendance at today&rsquo;s Summit sessions.

Curious? <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2485726">Give this a look</a>.
[Editor&rsquo;s note: If you already subscribe to at least one of our high-end publications, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2485726">this offer will be of special interest to you</a>.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Gold Rally, Gold Reserves, IRS Enforcement
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Gold&rsquo;s run-up sure has been years in the making!&rdquo; a reader affirms after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/gold-its-not-all-about-trump">Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;The central banks&rsquo; furious pace of buying gold is one more milepost in a long trend.
&ldquo;We are 11-plus decades into this dollar debasement scheme known as the &lsquo;Federal Reserve Note.&rsquo; It&rsquo;s amazing that it has taken so long to start blinking red on every level, but here we are.
&ldquo;Escalating debt, prices and spending &mdash; as well as big gold/silver corrections &mdash; are baked into fiat currency regimes from the beginning. The inflection points are just a matter of time.
&ldquo;From a technical analysis viewpoint, the current dollar prices of precious metals may have blown through reasonable levels. But considering how badly they have been manipulated, are they really overextended?
&ldquo;Or are they deeply undervalued assets that are finally doing an accounting as they seek their level?
&ldquo;BTW I don&rsquo;t think you get enough credit for the job you have done in past issues of The 5 explaining price suppression of gold and silver. Kudos for that.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Thank you. It was Jim Rickards who opened my eyes to it. I haven&rsquo;t really had occasion to revisit the issue for a long time. <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2019/08/22/deathbed-confession-precious-metals/">The most recent definitive take in our archives</a> goes back six years now &mdash; but it does stand the test of time.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Dave, you and others have reported on more than a few occasions that countries around the globe have looked upon the U.S. government's freezing Russian assets with such dismay as to dump American paper in favor of gold and other securities,&rdquo; writes one of our regulars.
&ldquo;What evidence can you cite to support this? Are there any allies or central banks on record as having stated such?
&ldquo;(And please do not conflate our massive federal debt with your forthcoming explanation, for I believe that is the real reason.)
&ldquo;Still a 5 Fan.&rdquo;
Dave: No, there&rsquo;s no documented instance of, say, the finance minister of East Borkistan telling a press conference, &ldquo;These people in Washington are bats*** crazy with their economic warfare measures. We&rsquo;re dumping our Treasuries and getting more gold.&rdquo;
Then again, if that were to happen, East Borkistan would immediately become a target for regime change, or at least one of those &ldquo;color-coded revolutions,&rdquo; no? Better to keep it all on the QT.
This much is certain: The sudden leap in accumulation of central bank gold reserves occurred in the spring and summer of 2022 after Washington ramped up the sanctions on Russia to an unprecedented degree.
Admittedly, Jim Rickards and I (and many others outside the Paradigm stable) are operating from inference. But I daresay it&rsquo;s informed inference.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On the subject of relaxed IRS enforcement during the &ldquo;partial government shutdown,&rdquo; we heard from an expat reader&hellip;
&ldquo;Dave, you wrote: &lsquo;Then again&hellip; how much of an enforcement mechanism do they have at the moment?&rsquo;
&ldquo;The key words in this phrase are &lsquo;at the moment.&rsquo; Almost certainly, if you fail to file your quarterly payment, nothing will happen immediately, but as the agents return to the office and begin to catch up on all that happened while they were out, you will get a notice, and not only will they demand what they consider their due, but will demand penalties on top of that. Not worth it.&rdquo;
Dave: No doubt. Ditto for accidentally lowballing one&rsquo;s quarterly estimated taxes. Hopefully your wise counsel is not derived from personal experience!
Have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

10k-path

"The frenzy stage for gold has not yet begun,” Jim Rickards declared yesterday before a crowd of 700-plus at the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit in Nashville.

The Path to $10K Gold

handshake

Donald Trump’s trade policy is set to face its biggest test yet over the next five weeks.

America’s JV With Xi

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />&ldquo;Ethereum Is Where It&rsquo;s At&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />When Wall Street strategist Tom Lee talks crypto, investors pay attention. 
As co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and now chairman of BitMine, Lee has built a reputation for bold market predictions.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6EEQBf9PS6qZNA1chv3W7X/5514d73bc4b806ec035f1e1689f3ca37/DocumentingSaylor.png" alt="Documenting Saylor" width="540px" />
He doesn&rsquo;t get every call right, but when he does, it can be huge &mdash; like in 2021, when he forecast Bitcoin&rsquo;s surge to $60,000 while most doubters rolled their eyes.
Now Lee is planting a flag for Ethereum&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Speaking at Korea Blockchain Week 2025&rsquo;s Impact conference earlier this month, Lee calls Ethereum a &ldquo;truly neutral chain&rdquo; that both Wall Street &mdash; and the White House &mdash; will prefer. 
&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t think anyone ever feels that someone&rsquo;s got a fat finger tilting [Ethereum] in their favor,&rdquo; Lee says. &ldquo;If you think about how Wall Street operates, they will only want to [operate] on a neutral chain.&rdquo;
Plus, Lee argues that Ethereum&rsquo;s neutrality is exactly what big institutions want as they edge toward widespread blockchain adoption. In his view, this is the chain that can underpin a financial system where no single party calls the shots.
And with the Trump administration leaning more pro-crypto, he notes that both the White House and Congress are already favoring Ethereum.
&ldquo;When I look at that, combined with agentic AI and robots that are really going to create the need for a token economy for robots, a lot of that will happen on Ethereum,&rdquo; Lee adds.
He notes that Ethereum could even host identity systems like Trump&rsquo;s proposed &ldquo;proof of human&rdquo; tools &mdash; technologies meant to distinguish people from bots and AI.
Lee&rsquo;s also put his money where his mouth is&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> BitMine, the company Lee chairs, pivoted into an Ethereum treasury model earlier this year. With over 2 million ETH on its book &mdash; worth about $10 billion today &mdash; BitMine is now the largest Ethereum treasury in the world.
Meanwhile, Lee says, institutional investors are treating BitMine (BMNR) and Bitcoin-focused Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy, MSTR) like large-cap stocks. &ldquo;BitMine trades $3 billion a day, MicroStrategy trades $3.4 billion a day. I think the two of us represent 95% of all trading volume in the digital asset treasuries (DATs),&rdquo; Lee explains.
That&rsquo;s why he thinks Ethereum is entering a &ldquo;super cycle&rdquo; that could last 10&ndash;15 years.
In Lee&rsquo;s view, Ethereum ends the year around $10,000&ndash;12,000. Then comes what he calls &ldquo;real price discovery&rdquo; &mdash; traders testing new highs between $12,000&ndash;15,000 as the market figures out how much Ethereum is really worth.
&ldquo;But I don&rsquo;t think that would be the ceiling for Ethereum,&rdquo; he concludes.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I think Ethereum is where it&rsquo;s at,&rdquo; Paradigm&rsquo;s market analyst Greg Guenthner agrees.
&ldquo;Judging by the snapback that we&rsquo;ve seen since its lows in April, this thing has moved from $1,500 all the way up toward new all-time highs of $4,800,&rdquo; he says &ldquo;It&rsquo;s been bleeding lower, right now [near] its 100-day moving average below these low swings from Aug. 19.
&ldquo;So we&rsquo;ve had these big downdrafts&rdquo; &mdash; down almost 7% last week, for instance &mdash; &ldquo;but now it&rsquo;s starting to firm up just a little bit. Nothing to get too excited about yet.
&ldquo;Watch out for a dip, followed by a rip&hellip; And, I&rsquo;m going to throw this out there: I think Ethereum could run and potentially go crazy if it gets above $5,000 and really starts getting legs.
&ldquo;I think the closest we got to $5K was about $4,940. But if we see a move above $5,000? It would not surprise me if we get a clean double, from $4,000 to $8,000 by January, if things really get frothy,&rdquo; Greg says.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;m telling you, Ethereum has that capability of running hard. We&rsquo;ve seen a lot of early rotation happening this year, going into Ethereum. If that continues after a gut check move like this, I think Ethereum could be a super-big winner heading into the end of the year. And one of the big melt-up darlings.
&ldquo;If we do see a dip and rip,&rdquo; Greg repeats, and &ldquo;if you really want to make some big gains, keep your eye on Ethereum.&rdquo;

[Circle Oct. 17 on your calendar because&hellip; Greg Guenthner, CMT, says that&rsquo;s the day a mini market reset begins.
When you see CMT after a name &mdash; chartered market technician &mdash; it actually means something. It&rsquo;s a tough technical credential, and Greg&rsquo;s certainly put it to work. This year alone he&rsquo;s called 18 winners, including nine triple-digit &ldquo;God Candles.&rdquo;
If you follow crypto, you know the pattern: A God Candle is that giant green bar, a sudden surge that can unfold in weeks, days or even minutes. Since 2020, Greg has nailed 36 of these moves, each going up 100% or more.
How? By running a rules-based system he&rsquo;s honed for years to flag the setups before the headlines hit.
And now, he&rsquo;s eyeing Oct. 17. Greg believes that&rsquo;s when conditions line up for the kind of window that has historically unleashed a wave of God-Candle setups.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2483792">Watch Greg&rsquo;s short interview here</a> where he walks through the setup for a potential triple-digit win.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Silver, Mr. Slammy and &ldquo;Stimmy&rdquo; Checks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It looked like silver&rsquo;s rally might be in trouble yesterday, with the U.S. dollar index spiking to 98.13 and miners stumbling. 
But by the closing bell, the pullback had faded into what editor Sean Ring calls &ldquo;the perfect elixir to the raging, hyperbolic move we&rsquo;ve seen in the miners lately.&rdquo; His portfolio, chock-a-block with mining stocks, finished down just 1.6%.
That resilience comes down to the fading power of &ldquo;Mr. Slammy,&rdquo; Sean says.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5R6W9whY5XAn4qZTOKPpWP/feb1e0640f0785c8bc6f2267b51c992d/JustDario.png" alt="just dario" width="540px" />
In precious metals circles, Mr. Slammy is shorthand for the sudden, heavy futures sell orders &mdash; strongly suspected to come from big banks &mdash; that used to crush precious metals rallies.
But Sean notes: &ldquo;Mr. Slammy doesn&rsquo;t have nearly the power he used to. There are far too many Western and Asian buyers for him. The recoveries are coming thick and fast.&rdquo;
And now the big banks themselves are catching on. UBS has lifted its silver forecast to $44&ndash;47 by mid-2026, while Jefferies&rsquo; models suggest gold could push toward $6,600 &mdash; or even higher if money supply metrics are applied.
And these lofty projections may underestimate other forces at play&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As Sean points out, Washington shows no appetite for fiscal restraint. &ldquo;In an exclusive interview with OANN yesterday,&rdquo; he notes, &ldquo;President Trump said the following (bolds mine):
<blockquote>With the kind of growth we have now, the debt is very low, relatively speaking. You grow yourself out of that debt. The numbers we have now are bigger than they ever were. We also might make a distribution to the people.</blockquote>
<blockquote>We&rsquo;re thinking almost $1,000&ndash;2,000.</blockquote>
&ldquo;Needless to say,&rdquo; Sean adds, &ldquo;this plan is loco. Debt is ludicrously high, and getting worse, thanks to the deficits he&rsquo;s running.
&ldquo;If anything, The Donald needs to stop spending money so lavishly. Handing out stimulus checks willy-nilly was what caused the CPI, an already flawed metric that underestimates inflation, to rise to nearly 10% under [Biden&rsquo;s] presidency.&rdquo;
Sean&rsquo;s key takeaway: &ldquo;This alone is reason enough to hang on to your gold, silver and miners' positions for the foreseeable future. Now is not the time to be taking profits on your long-term positions.
&ldquo;The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of an extended rally in gold, silver, platinum, palladium and a wide range of other metals and miners,&rdquo; he concludes. &ldquo;In this once-in-a-lifetime situation, stay long or stay wrong.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And just like that, precious metals are catching bids today&hellip; 
Silver, in fact, is up 3.85% to $48.15 while gold&rsquo;s up 1.15% to $3,912.90 per ounce. Elsewhere in commodities, oil is up 1% to $61.10 for a barrel of WTI.
Stocks, likewise, are in the green. This afternoon, the Big Board&rsquo;s gaining the most traction: up 1.10% to 47,035. The S&amp;P 500 is up 0.50% to 6,750, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq&rsquo;s up 0.30% to 22,900.
At the same time, crypto&rsquo;s in rally mode. Bitcoin&rsquo;s up 2.10% to $123,425. Ethereum? Up almost 1% to $4,545.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />First Brands Rhymes with Enron?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />When <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-check-engine-light">First Brands Group</a> filed bankruptcy this week, most headlines focused on the mountain of debt &mdash; about $12 billion tallied so far. 
But to veteran short seller Jim Chanos, this isn&rsquo;t just another corporate failure. It&rsquo;s a signal flare for the entire financial system.
Chanos, who famously shorted Enron two decades ago, tells the Financial Times that First Brands&rsquo; downfall shows how risky the private-credit boom has become.
In reality, Chanos says: &ldquo;Institutions [are] putting money into this magical machine that gives you equity rates of return for senior debt exposure&hellip; that should be the first red flag.&rdquo;
First Brands is a perfect case study. The company didn&rsquo;t just take out regular loans. Instead, it set up special purpose entities (SPEs) &mdash; separate legal shells that borrowed money using the company&rsquo;s invoices and inventory as collateral.
On paper, these SPEs were supposed to keep things neat and separate. In practice, however, they added layers of complexity that made it nearly impossible for outsiders to see the full picture.
Here&rsquo;s where things get messy: First Brands CEO Patrick James also controlled many of the SPEs through a chain of limited liability companies. That kind of overlapping ownership, Chanos says, is another &ldquo;huge red flag,&rdquo; blurring lines and raising risks for lenders.
Chanos compares First Brands accounting practices to the dirty tricks Enron pulled: opaque structures, hidden liabilities and ownership overlaps that concealed the real financial health of the company.
&ldquo;The opaqueness is part of the process,&rdquo; he concludes. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s a feature not a bug.&rdquo;
Meanwhile, a U.S. bankruptcy judge approved First Brands&rsquo; access to $500 million in the first phase of a $1.1 billion debtor-in-possession (DIP) rescue loan, granting the company an emergency lifeline as it digs into this financial tire fire.
Stay tuned&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />America&rsquo;s Energy Shock
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Kevin Stanley never signed up to power the AI revolution. The 57-year-old &mdash; blind and living on disability payments in Baltimore &mdash; now pays nearly 80% more for electricity than he did three years ago. &ldquo;They&rsquo;re going up and up,&rdquo; he tells Bloomberg. &ldquo;You wonder, &lsquo;What is your breaking point?&rsquo;&rdquo;
He&rsquo;s not alone. Bloomberg&rsquo;s analysis of wholesale electricity data shows that in regions near heavy data-center activity, monthly power prices have surged as much as 267% over the past five years.
That pressure is now sparking political backlash. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro recently warned his state could pull out of the <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-ultimate-white-house-insider#4">PJM Interconnection</a> &mdash; the grid operator serving 13 states and Washington, D.C. &mdash; unless it finds a way to contain consumer costs. New Jersey and Maryland are weighing similar options, underscoring the depth of public frustration.
PJM has already approved nearly $6 billion in new transmission projects, much of it driven by data-center growth. Its official watchdog warns the grid&rsquo;s capacity market will remain &ldquo;at its maximum price for the foreseeable future.&rdquo; Unless data centers generate their own power, they argue, ordinary households and businesses will be left holding the bag.
And the impact is spreading. Even if you live far from &ldquo;Data Center Alley&rdquo; in northern Virginia, the explosion of AI-driven server farms is rippling through the national grid and straight into your monthly bill. Plus, U.S. demand from these facilities is expected to nearly double to 9% of total consumption by 2035 &mdash; the sharpest increase since air conditioning took off in the 1960s.
The bottom line: America&rsquo;s AI boom isn&rsquo;t just transforming technology. It&rsquo;s rewriting your power bill.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Stupid Branding Tricks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For the first time in 133 years, coffee brand Maxwell House is ditching its famous &ldquo;House.&rdquo; 
With about one-third of Americans now renting instead of buying homes, the company says it wants to reflect the reality of today&rsquo;s consumer.
The coffee blend itself isn&rsquo;t changing. The taste, aroma and ingredients will remain the same. But the name is downsizing&hellip;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5oGheFfBeIjTpTyT1MRlAU/f42cebcfd0e446c1d493abf5aa4fa12b/Maxwell.png" alt="maxwell" width="300px" />

Source: Kraft Heinz
Just yesterday, we talked about how <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-reckless-with-russia#4">coffee prices</a> have surged, making your daily cup(s) one of the clearest symbols of inflation&rsquo;s pinch.
Now, for $39.99, fans can purchase four 27.5-ounce canisters of Maxwell Apartment coffee on Amazon &mdash; supposedly enough coffee to last a full year &mdash; along with a mock 12-month &ldquo;lease&rdquo; to sign.
The rebrand? Temporary. But the cringe is permanent.
Take care, reader! Enjoy the weekend.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

“I think Ethereum is where it’s at,” says Paradigm’s market analyst Greg Guenthner. 

Ready-to-Rip ETH

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Washington Crosses a Red Line?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Until now, Washington&rsquo;s support for Ukraine could be cast as defensive &mdash; drones, limited arms, broad intelligence. But openly helping Kyiv select targets inside Russia is something else entirely.
According to an exclusive report at The Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration has approved U.S. intelligence support for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
In fact, Trump signed off on letting the Pentagon and intelligence agencies share data that could enable Ukraine to hit refineries, pipelines and power plants hundreds of miles beyond the battlefield.
Officials are also weighing whether to send Tomahawk cruise missiles &mdash; capable of reaching 1,500 miles. The goal: deprive the Kremlin of energy revenue and weaken its war machine.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/17wGNNwaFhYTPtkI0tC6ry/aa6e02f10141fd1b72e5386a1e352973/Antiwar.png" alt="Antiwar tweet" width="540px" />

Well, that escalated quickly&hellip;
Early this morning, I reached out to retired U.S. Navy officer and Paradigm editor Byron King, who didn&rsquo;t pull punches: &ldquo;It&rsquo;s an overt act of war against Russia, and truly a casus belli under even the minimal test of what&rsquo;s called &lsquo;belligerence&rsquo; under international law.&rdquo;
For Byron, this is not just another tactic. It&rsquo;s a dangerous escalation. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s one thing to tacitly support Ukraine,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s another to admit the U.S. is working to kill Russians.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Turn it around: If Russia admitted it was supplying intelligence and munitions to kill Americans, what would we do?&rdquo; Byron questions.
The Kremlin is pressing the same point. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov wonders aloud whether Americans themselves will be directing missile strikes. If so, Moscow could treat the U.S. as a direct combatant.
Meanwhile, Byron stresses that Ukraine is of &ldquo;negligible concern to the U.S. in terms of national interests.&rdquo; Yet Washington has committed more than $180 billion in emergency funding since the war began &mdash; and NATO allies, Byron reminds us, have likely poured in just as much.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve invested staggering sums,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;only to see burning tanks, wrecked artillery and Western weapons failing.
&ldquo;Overall, our stuff does not pass the test of combat in Ukraine,&rdquo; Byron concludes. Plus, he argues the U.S. military is built for rapid overseas interventions, not a grinding war of attrition against a continental power defending its own territory.
On the diplomacy front there&rsquo;s little relief. Trump came into office promising to negotiate a ceasefire &mdash; &ldquo;I could end this war in 24 hours&rdquo; with one telephone call, he claimed on the campaign trail. But dialogue with Moscow has flatlined.
&ldquo;Coming in the wake of the Alaska sit-down with Putin, it&rsquo;s beyond comprehension,&rdquo; Byron adds, &ldquo;that Washington would now double down on escalation.&rdquo;
The Trump administration&rsquo;s decision marks a provocation &mdash; one that draws the U.S. directly into strikes on Russian soil and invites Moscow to see America as a combatant. Once that perception hardens, the margin for error shrinks.
This is not a viable strategy. It&rsquo;s mission creep. And it risks dragging the U.S. into a war it never needed to fight.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Silver Banishes Ghosts (1980 and 2011)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Gold (+47%) has been hogging the spotlight in 2025. But silver (+48%) is quietly stealing the show, delivering gains and inching toward new highs. 
In fact, several Paradigm editors say this isn&rsquo;t just a replay of the old &ldquo;silver spikes then crashes&rdquo; story. This time, the setup looks different.
&ldquo;China is on track to have more solar power generation than the United States has total power generation,&rdquo; says the aforementioned Byron King, also our resident geologist.
The Daily Reckoning&rsquo;s Adam Sharp notes &ldquo;China added 94 gigawatts of solar energy in May alone,&rdquo; which required roughly 65 million ounces of silver.
With solar eating up so much supply, editor Sean Ring adds: &ldquo;Silver&rsquo;s industrial demand outstrips supply.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Skeptics, however, love to point to 1980 and 2011 &mdash; the two infamous $50 silver spikes. But as Sean explains, context is key:
<ul>
<li>1980: The Hunt brothers tried to corner the market, buying up a third of the world&rsquo;s deliverable supply. That wasn&rsquo;t a natural rally; it was a monopoly attempt crushed by regulators</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>2011: Europe&rsquo;s debt crisis and America&rsquo;s credit downgrade fueled a panic-driven &ldquo;fear trade.&rdquo; Industrial demand wasn&rsquo;t in play yet.</li>
</ul>
This time, silver&rsquo;s story is anchored in fundamentals, and once psychology joins in, it could turn into a stampede.
&ldquo;People are going to see $50 and say, &lsquo;I need to sell here because that&rsquo;s the all-time high,&rsquo;&rdquo; says Sean. But he believes any pullbacks will be short-lived. &ldquo;I think we&rsquo;re going to see triple digits in silver.&rdquo;
CBOE veteran trader Alan Knuckman reminds that silver&rsquo;s inflation-adjusted 1980 high would be $72 today. Plus, other commodities like coffee (more on that in a moment), cocoa and gold have already blasted past old records.
Market analyst Dan Amoss further highlights opportunities in mining stocks still flying under the radar: &ldquo;I still don&rsquo;t see any [miners] or exchange-traded funds anywhere in the top 30 U.S. retail trading stocks,&rdquo; he says. Translation: The crowd hasn&rsquo;t piled in yet.
[Congrats are in order to Dan and the team at Rickards&rsquo; Insider Intel where subscribers just locked in 185% gains on a silver miner play!]
&ldquo;Sure, silver will stay volatile &mdash; it&rsquo;s in its DNA,&rdquo; Sean concludes. &ldquo;This time, [silver] won&rsquo;t just fly to $50 &mdash; it&rsquo;ll pitch a tent, plant a flag and start charging rent.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Wouldn&rsquo;t you know it, precious metals are pulling back today. The price of gold is down almost 1% to $3,861.10; meanwhile, the white metal&rsquo;s dropped more than 3%, barely hanging onto $46.
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;I'm almost glad we're correcting,&rdquo; says Adam Sharp at Paradigm&rsquo;s private editorial Slack channel. &ldquo;That parabolic move was making me nervous&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Yup, today is necessary,&rdquo; Sean Ring confirms. &ldquo;The good news is that it hasn&rsquo;t broken any big trends.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
As for the other commodity we regularly track, oil&rsquo;s down 2.15% to $60.45 for a barrel of West Texas crude.
Stocks, in the meantime, are mostly in the red. The Dow (-0.10%) and S&amp;P 500 (-0.10%) are down to 46,405 and 6,705 respectively. But the tech-loving Nasdaq is up 0.15% to 22,790.
The crypto market, however, is in fine fiddle. Bitcoin&rsquo;s rallying 2%, at the time of writing, just a hair below $120K. As for Bitcoin&rsquo;s cuz, Ethereum, it&rsquo;s up 2.60% to $4,440.
Keep reading for more on crypto&rsquo;s outlook, and check back tomorrow for a plucky ETH prediction&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />&ldquo;Cryptober is Still On&rdquo; 
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;We thought the CLARITY Act &mdash; the next big bill for crypto &mdash; was going to glide through like an Olympic figure skater,&rdquo; says Paradigm editor Chris Campbell.
&ldquo;And&hellip; it was,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;And then what happens? D.C. rage quits.&rdquo;
The much-anticipated CLARITY Act aims to define once and for all which tokens are securities, which are commodities and how agencies like the SEC and CFTC should divide oversight. In short, it was meant to end the regulatory guessing game that&rsquo;s plagued the industry for years.
That setback might seem discouraging, but as Chris points out, the market tells a different story. &ldquo;Unlike the government, there&rsquo;s no off switch for crypto. Blocks keep getting mined. Stablecoins keep moving billions. Ethereum keeps verifying transactions. 24/7. No holiday breaks.&rdquo;
In fact, activity is accelerating. More than $300 billion worth of stablecoins now circulate on blockchains &mdash; double the number from January, and more than the entire crypto market cap just five years ago. Chris predicts &ldquo;we&rsquo;ll see half a trillion stablecoins by Christmas.
&ldquo;But that&rsquo;s only one part of the story. It&rsquo;s the &lsquo;everything else&rsquo; that makes me bullish&hellip;
<ul>
<li>The SEC just met with the NYSE to put actual securities on-chain</li>
<li>SWIFT [payment system] is OFFICIALLY working with Chainlink and Ethereum developers to rebuild settlement rails</li>
<li>Visa is running pilots with USDC and EURC like they&rsquo;re cash.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
So yes, the CLARITY Act is stuck for now. But crypto doesn&rsquo;t wait on Capitol Hill. As Chris puts it: &ldquo;To call days like this merely &lsquo;bullish&rsquo; is like describing a supernova as &lsquo;slightly twinkly.&rsquo;&rdquo;
The train hasn&rsquo;t stopped &mdash; it&rsquo;s just gathering speed. &ldquo;October is historically a very bullish month for crypto,&rdquo; Chris adds. &ldquo;This one is setting up to be no different.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And just in time for October 2025&rsquo;s eerie overlap with a government shutdown, here&rsquo;s a meme that captures the vibe&hellip;
<a id="4"></a>
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/24XlOpl9AZmmqXQuYVI7nl/54228ced8ac5702506a0d262b44d308f/SpiritHalloween.png" alt="spirit halloween" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Grounds for Concern
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Monday was National Coffee Day&hellip; But who&rsquo;s celebrating? Coffee prices have surged almost 21% over the past year, far exceeding overall inflation&hellip;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3YJqvibaE0SymxaE1mtxa4/b5ad7903a8b1d42c26ef11129b2a7d5c/CoffeeInflation.png" alt="Coffee Inflation" width="540px" />

Source: BLS, Hedgeye
The reasons are straightforward: Severe droughts in Vietnam and Brazil &mdash; which together supply the majority of the world&rsquo;s coffee beans &mdash; have slashed harvests and left global stockpiles at their lowest level in decades.
Vietnam&rsquo;s crop has been hit particularly hard, down about 20% year-over-year, while Brazil&rsquo;s shipments to the U.S. fell 46% this summer.
On top of inclement weather? Tariffs introduced earlier this year added a 20% duty on Vietnamese beans and a steep 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee. (See drought data points above. Uncanny symmetry, no?)
Thus Arabica futures hit $4.41 a pound in February &mdash; double the price in 2023. Of course, importers and roasters have passed those costs on to consumers, with packaged coffee on U.S. grocery shelves climbing at the fastest pace since 1997.
Now a bipartisan bill is trying to reverse course. Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Ro Khanna (D-CA) have introduced legislation to repeal Trump-era coffee tariffs.
The bill would exempt roasted and decaffeinated coffee, as well as related products from any duties imposed after Jan. 19, 2025. Supporters argue the move is simple: Cut tariffs to bring down costs for everyday consumers.
Relief may also come from Mother Nature. Forecasts call for more rain in Brazil and Vietnam, which could help next year&rsquo;s harvest. But analysts warn that global Arabica supply will still run short &mdash; by as much as 8.5 million bags in the coming crop year.
For coffee drinkers, that means higher prices aren&rsquo;t going away soon. Even with political fixes, the world&rsquo;s favorite pick-me-up is likely to remain an expensive habit well into 2026.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />A Reader Calls &ldquo;Foul&rdquo; on First Brands
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;So what you are saying is that First Brands is not an exception but the rule; therefore, we just might be in for a terrible market crash,&rdquo; a reader grouses about <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-check-engine-light">Wednesday&rsquo;s </a><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-check-engine-light">5 Bullets.</a>&ldquo;Hard to believe, and hard to believe you are promoting this.&rdquo;
Emily: I never said First Brands&rsquo; bankruptcy is &ldquo;the rule.&rdquo;
What I said is that First Brands is a small fracture beneath the surface of credit markets. Cracks don&rsquo;t always lead to collapse, but they do reveal pressure points. And sometimes, they&rsquo;re canaries in the coal mine.
Sure enough, just yesterday PIMCO President Christian Stracke warned of growing stress in corporate private credit. Keep in mind, PIMCO is one of the world&rsquo;s largest bond managers, overseeing more than $2 trillion in assets.
Specifically, Stracke points out that more borrowers are asking to pay lenders not in cash, but in IOUs &mdash; so-called &ldquo;payment in kind&rdquo; loans.
In other words, even PIMCO sees the same widening fault lines I flagged yesterday.
No, First Brands is not proof the entire system will implode today. Or even tomorrow. But as Jim Rickards frequently reminds: Sometimes, it only takes a single snowflake to trigger an avalanche.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Russia

Until now, Washington’s support for Ukraine could be cast as defensive. But openly helping Kyiv select targets inside Russia is something else entirely.

Trump: Reckless With Russia

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /> Warning From the Auto Parts Aisle
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Sometimes the most important financial warnings come from the less glamorous corners of the economy. That&rsquo;s why the bankruptcy of privately held U.S. auto parts maker First Brands Group is more than just another corporate failure &mdash; it&rsquo;s a flashing red light for investors.
First Brands filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this week, listing liabilities between $10&ndash;50 billion. The company, known for aftermarket staples like Fram filters, Trico wiper blades and Raybestos brakes, gorged on debt-fueled acquisitions in recent years. When credit markets were loose, that strategy worked. Once confidence evaporated, it unraveled fast.
Behind the headlines, the accounting looks shady. According to court filings and a statement from Charles Moore, First Brands&rsquo; new chief restructuring officer, investigators are probing &ldquo;whether receivables may have been factored more than once&rdquo; &mdash; meaning the same invoice could have been pledged multiple times to raise cash, Financial Times reports.
<ul>
<li>This &ldquo;double pledging&rdquo; is a serious red flag, suggesting the company was essentially borrowing against phantom assets</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Moore also disclosed that inventory collateral may have been &ldquo;commingled&rdquo; across different loans &mdash; another troubling sign.</li>
</ul>
Put simply, lenders may not have clear claims to the assets they thought they owned. One creditor, SouthState Bank, even seized $27 million in what it called the &ldquo;last remaining liquidity&rdquo; of First Brands&rsquo; subsidiaries before the bankruptcy filing.
The result: a multibillion-dollar hole in Wall Street balance sheets, with creditors ranging from UBS-backed hedge funds to regional banks. More than a dozen affiliates tied to First Brands, including Carnaby Capital Holdings, also filed for bankruptcy.
Analysts at S&amp;P Global warn: &ldquo;We believe Carnaby was a material source of off-balance sheet financing that First Brands used to fund its working capital.&rdquo;
This isn&rsquo;t just sloppy management. It&rsquo;s a collapse built on aggressive financial engineering &mdash; and it comes at a dangerous time for credit markets.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The timing of First Brands&rsquo; bankruptcy &mdash; on the heels of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings&rsquo; liquidation &mdash; has bond investors looking over their shoulders.
The corporate bond market is, by many measures, running hot. Investors are snapping up debt at record pace, even though the &ldquo;spread&rdquo; &mdash; the extra yield above Treasuries they receive for taking on risk &mdash; is at its lowest in decades.
For instance, the spread on investment-grade bonds recently hit just 0.74% point, the narrowest since 1998. That means investors are taking on more risk while getting paid less for it. For junk bonds? The spread hovers around 2.75 points, near pre-2008 levels.
This is exactly the type of environment where small shocks can cascade. With debt piling up in both public and private credit markets, it doesn&rsquo;t take much to spark fear. (Barclays analysts compare today&rsquo;s market to the Star Wars scene where Han Solo and Princess Leia are trapped in a garbage chute, &ldquo;the walls compressing on all sides.&rdquo;)
So far, defaults remain limited, but cracks are forming. More companies are paying creditors with IOUs instead of cash (so-called payment-in-kind, or PIK, loans), defaults in private credit are ticking higher and sudden bankruptcies like Tricolor and First Brands are rattling confidence.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3a3QF0c1bgBrvGaNf6lQRn/34cb9a3a9893c45d7b12f3dd9620dbd0/PrivateCredit.png" alt="Private Credit" width="450px" />

Source: Fitch Ratings, WSJ
Consider the scale: Private credit &mdash; lending that happens outside traditional banks &mdash; has ballooned to nearly $2 trillion, up from almost zero a decade ago. Private equity firms, which rely heavily on corporate bonds and private credit to fund buyouts, are sitting on another $4 trillion-plus in assets worldwide.
When this much money is tied up in debt-heavy deals, even a small shock can ripple through markets.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Paradigm&rsquo;s market analyst Dan Amoss warns of this exact dynamic: a market held together by confidence, but vulnerable to a single spark. &ldquo;The match to light the fuse on this generation&rsquo;s version of financial engineering is very hard to identify in advance,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;Example: In 2008, the match with Lehman Bros. was the pressure to refinance many questionable assets on its balance sheet overnight in the commercial paper markets&rdquo; &mdash; short-term, unsecured debt that companies issue to cover expenses.
&ldquo;When commercial paper investors finally realized they didn&rsquo;t want to be a bagholder of overmarked Lehman collateral, from there it was a desperate call to Bernanke and Hank Paulson&hellip; And it was all over.&rdquo;
But Dan &mdash; who, by the way, recommended put options on Lehman Bros. in the summer of 2008 for 462% gains &mdash; argues that today&rsquo;s &ldquo;fuse&rdquo; is likely in the private equity (PE) and private credit markets.
The real test will come, he says, &ldquo;when the pension-endowment-high net worth clients who ultimately funded the private equity ecosystem finally ask tougher questions.&rdquo;
But because institutional capital is &ldquo;so bureaucratic and consensus-driven,&rdquo; the adjustment may take time &mdash; leaving a window where risk builds unseen.
First Brands may be just one company, but its collapse &mdash; built on mountains of debt and questionable accounting &mdash; is a warning shot.
For years, cheap money papered over risks in corporate debt. Now with interest rates still elevated and defaults ticking higher, those risks are coming due. Investors who think today&rsquo;s bond market is &ldquo;safe&rdquo; may want to think again.
As Dan reminds, the system always looks stable &mdash; until it doesn&rsquo;t. And when the fuse is finally lit, the explosion will not be contained to a single company&rsquo;s balance sheet.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Labor Market Loses Steam
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In light of the government shutdown &mdash; meaning, no official jobs report on Friday &mdash; the ADP private payroll number is taking on outsized significance. 
U.S. private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, totally contrary to economists&rsquo; expectation of a 51,000 gain. August figures were also revised downward to a loss of 3,000 jobs from an initially reported 54,000 gain.
Most weakness was concentrated in small- and medium-sized firms, while large companies (500+ employees) actually added 33,000 jobs. Service industry jobs lost 28,000 positions, with notable declines in leisure, hospitality and business services.
Pay growth also cooled: Job-changers saw annual wage gains slow to 6.6% from 7.1% in August, while job-stayers&rsquo; pay growth remained steady at 4.5% year-over-year.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.1 in September, a touch above expectations (49.0) and August&rsquo;s 48.7. Any reading below 50 still signals contraction, making this the seventh-straight month of decline for the sector.
The slight improvement was driven mainly by stronger production, which rose 3.2 points. But that strength was undercut by sharp drops in both new orders and inventories, suggesting weak demand.
Manufacturing employment, meanwhile, improved modestly to 45.3 from 43.8, while input prices eased to 61.9 from 63.7, indicating some relief on the cost side.
Takeaway: The ADP report shows hiring is stalling, and the ISM data confirms factory output is still shrinking. Put together, it&rsquo;s a clear sign the job market is cooling and U.S. manufacturing hasn&rsquo;t found its footing.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Taking a look at the stock market today, the three major U.S. indexes are in the green &mdash; government shutdown be damned. 
The tech-heavy Nasdaq is faring best, up 0.15% to 22,700. At the same time, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 are neck and neck: both up about 0.10% to 46,450 and 6,695 respectively.
Crude, meanwhile, is slumping; a barrel of WTI is down 0.75%, priced just under $62. But gold is hitting a fresh high-water mark at $3,894.63 per ounce, and silver&rsquo;s up almost 2% to $47.58. Next stop, $50?
Crypto, in sympathy with stocks, is in the green. Bitcoin&rsquo;s up 3.10% to $117,790; Ethereum&rsquo;s up 4.70% to $4,335.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Trump Fights the Fed
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The legal battle over Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is headed to the Supreme Court, and it&rsquo;s shaping up to be a pivotal test of presidential authority.
&ldquo;Federal Reserve watchers may have thought the <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/if-lisa-cook-wont-leave">Lisa Cook</a> fight was over when she appeared at the Fed meeting on Sept. 17 and voted with Chair Jay Powell in favor of an interest rate cut,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macro expert Jim Rickards. &ldquo;Trump had fired her several weeks ago, but she claimed this was illegal and stayed in her position.&rdquo;
Cook sued in federal court and won an order allowing her to remain at her post until the case is resolved. The appeals court agreed, but Trump has now petitioned the Supreme Court. At stake is whether the president can remove Fed officials for &ldquo;cause&rdquo; &mdash; and what qualifies as cause in the first place.
Trump argues Cook engaged in mortgage fraud by listing multiple properties as her &ldquo;primary residence&rdquo; on loan applications. &ldquo;The statute allows Fed officials to be fired for cause,&rdquo; Jim explains. &ldquo;Trump claims he has cause because of alleged mortgage fraud&hellip; The lower courts held Cook&rsquo;s action happened before her confirmation under the Biden administration and the Senate vote effectively cleansed the record.&rdquo;
The broader constitutional issue looms even larger. &ldquo;By pushing the Lisa Cook case, they may end up with a decision that says the president can fire any bureaucrat at any time for any reason,&rdquo; Jim warns. &ldquo;Trump&rsquo;s legal enemies should be careful what they wish for.&rdquo;
As Jim concludes: &ldquo;I&rsquo;ve hired and fired a lot of people in my career. Somehow, those decisions never made it to the Supreme Court. This one will.&rdquo;
[This just in: The Supreme Court is allowing Cook to stay on the job while the court prepares to hear oral arguments in January.]
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />JPMorgan&rsquo;s Rotten Rolodex
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Charlie Javice, founder of student-aid startup Frank, was sentenced Monday to just over seven years in prison for defrauding JPMorgan Chase in its $175 million acquisition of her company. 
Prosecutors showed Javice fabricated millions of fake customer accounts to make Frank look bigger than it was. In reality, the platform had fewer than 300,000 users. In court, Javice cried and begged forgiveness, saying she would &ldquo;spend my entire life regretting these errors.&rdquo;
Judge Alvin Hellerstein acknowledged her remorse but didn&rsquo;t hold back. &ldquo;I sentence people not because they&rsquo;re bad, but because they do bad things,&rdquo; he said, prosecution adding that JPMorgan had essentially bought a &ldquo;crime scene.&rdquo;
The real embarrassment, in other words, was JPMorgan&rsquo;s. The bank rushed to close the deal without basic due diligence. Hellerstein&rsquo;s and prosecution&rsquo;s remarks underscored the sheer recklessness of a Wall Street giant that should have known better.
Of course, this isn&rsquo;t JPM&rsquo;s first run-in with the court system. Over the years, the bank&rsquo;s been fined or censured for manipulating energy markets, failing to stop the Madoff Ponzi scheme, rigging foreign-exchange trades, misleading mortgage investors, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/2025-update-from-jfk-to-jeffrey-epstein#2">servicing Jeffrey Epstein</a> and enabling money laundering. The list goes on and on.
In chasing hot fintech deals, JPMorgan once again proved that it isn&rsquo;t as smart &mdash; or as careful &mdash; as it purports to be. This time, it got played by a 30-something founder with a slide deck.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Wireless Taxes: All Over the Map
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Wireless taxes in the United States have hit record highs in 2025, with average taxes, fees and surcharges amounting to 27.6% of a typical monthly cellphone bill &mdash; over $330 annually for a standard family plan.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2zYbzxLJoIBRV4nj08YuNs/2eef21dd7f537f153aa26bfa0cda3c25/CellTaxes.png" alt="cell taxes" width="540px" />

<a href="https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/wireless-taxes-cell-phone-tax-rates-by-state-2025">View interactive map here</a>
The state-by-state breakdown is, well, all over the map&hellip;
At almost 25%, Illinois tops the list of state tax rates. Washington, Nebraska, New York and Pennsylvania also levy state and local taxes far above the national average. Residents in Idaho, meanwhile, incur the lowest state-tax burden at just 3.46%.
Unlike general sales taxes, which apply to most goods and services, wireless taxes in at least 17 states are double the sales tax. Localities pile on even more, with cities like Chicago charging $5 per line per month, further hitting families with multiple lines
So the next time you inspect your cellphone bill, remember this: While your &ldquo;talk and text&rdquo; might be unlimited&hellip; taxes, fees and surcharges are unlimited too.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

check-engine

Sometimes the most important financial warnings come from the less glamorous corners of the economy.

Wall Street’s Check Engine Light

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Rumor: Fund Giant Catches &ldquo;the Plague&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Every few months brings a new &ldquo;crypto goes mainstream&rdquo; headline. But this one could truly be a game-changer.
&ldquo;Vanguard Group Inc. is weighing whether to allow trading of cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded funds on its platform,&rdquo; reports Bloomberg News &mdash; &ldquo;a move that would mark a major easing of its restrictive stance toward the popular but volatile asset class.&rdquo;
Vanguard has 50 million customers&hellip; who hold $11 trillion in assets.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Until now, almost everything crypto-related has been off-limits to Vanguard customers. 
Not only does Vanguard not offer crypto ETFs, its customers cannot trade other firms&rsquo; crypto ETFs.
Before his death in 2019, the firm&rsquo;s legendary founder Jack Bogle urged investors to avoid Bitcoin &ldquo;like the plague.&rdquo;
Former CEO Tim Buckley once said Vanguard would never launch a Bitcoin fund &mdash; unlike its giant rivals BlackRock (the iShares fund family) and State Street (the SPDR funds). Other Vanguard execs say crypto as an asset class is &ldquo;immature&rdquo; and adding it to portfolios could lead to &ldquo;havoc.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But Vanguard&rsquo;s new CEO comes from&hellip; BlackRock.
Salim Ramji took over from Buckley last year, the first outsider ever to run Vanguard. When he ran BlackRock&rsquo;s global ETF business, he led an initial foray into a crypto-themed ETF, long before SEC approval of the first Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.
&ldquo;As the regulatory environment becomes clearer, and as the underlying liquidity dynamics of that market become more to our satisfaction, some of those dynamics will work in our favor,&rdquo; he told a Bloomberg podcast in 2021.
Today, BlackRock&rsquo;s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has $84 billion in assets &mdash; a majority of the $142 billion held by Bitcoin ETFs.
So far, the buzz about Vanguard and crypto is just that &mdash; buzz fueled by Ramji&rsquo;s background, first reported by the Crypto in America outlet.
&ldquo;We continuously evaluate our brokerage offer, investor preferences and the evolving regulatory environment,&rdquo; a Vanguard flack tells Bloomberg. &ldquo;If and when a decision is made, clients will hear directly from Vanguard.&rdquo;

[Final notice: Here&rsquo;s a crypto catalyst that&rsquo;s more certain: As early as today, Donald Trump is set to act on a new crypto law that our own James Altucher says &ldquo;could create the LAST wave of crypto millionaires we&rsquo;ll ever see.&rdquo;
James and his team have identified the five coins set to prosper the most &mdash; with the potential to 7X your money or more. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2482419">Give James&rsquo; latest briefing a look right here, while there&rsquo;s still time</a>.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Epstein Shutdown, Starting Tomorrow
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />There&rsquo;s a lot to unpack in this headline &mdash; more than CNBC lets on.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4ZRM8Zkydbyb1rNuUHYwgn/a4c3bfaa247c39842612ffe3a01a7757/BreakingNews-CNBC.png" alt="Breaking News CNBC" width="540px" />
Barring a truly unexpected development, a &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; is all but certain starting tomorrow.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/keep-your-crypto-composure#4">As we mentioned on Friday</a>, Democrats and Republicans are theoretically at odds over Obamacare subsidies &mdash; but House Speaker Mike Johnson sent members home days before the deadline to avoid a vote over the release of additional Jeffrey Epstein files.
The Epstein shutdown means a shutoff of many government economic numbers &mdash; starting with the monthly job figures due this Friday.
Thus, Wall Street is hanging onto every non-governmental data release for a glimpse into the economy&rsquo;s health, or lack thereof.
The Conference Board is out with its monthly reading on consumer confidence, and it laid an egg: The number tumbled from 97.8 to 94.2. No one among dozens of Wall Street economists polled by Econoday thought it would be that low.
With that, the major U.S. stock indexes are all in the red as we write &mdash; though not by much. The S&amp;P 500 is down a quarter percent at 6,645.
Gold continues to climb to record levels, now $3,847. But silver is pulling back to $46.62. Oil is down again today to $62.40. Bitcoin and Ethereum are little changed from 24 hours ago.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> How does the stock market perform during shutdowns?
On the Paradigm Press mobile app, Enrique Abeyta reminds us the most recent one was in late 2018 and early 2019. It was also the longest, 35 days.
&ldquo;The stock market got CRUSHED during that period with the S&amp;P 500 down 16% in JUST the month of December,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;We don't think THAT happens but a prolonged shutdown can have a real impact.&rdquo;
Perhaps a more instructive episode is the shutdown from 2013 &mdash; because like this one, it coincided with the start of the federal government&rsquo;s new fiscal year on Oct. 1.
That one lasted 16 days. The S&amp;P 500 inched up 1.5% during that period. It rose another 6.9% by year-end.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The biggest issue with government economic data during this shutdown will come on Oct. 15.
That&rsquo;s when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the monthly inflation numbers.
Ordinarily that wouldn&rsquo;t be a big deal &mdash; except that the mid-October release is what the Social Security Administration uses to set the annual cost of living adjustment for everyone collecting old-age benefits.
To be continued&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Gold: Time to Sell?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;When precious metal prices go up-up-up, it&rsquo;s another way of stating that the value of the dollar has moved down-down-down,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s mining-and-energy authority Byron King.
&ldquo;And in 2025 those relative moves have been more rapid than we&rsquo;re used to seeing, albeit part of a monetary trend that goes back five decades, since President Nixon took the U.S. off of what passed for a gold standard in 1971.&rdquo;
Gold started the year at $2,625. Now it&rsquo;s over $3,800. Silver was under $29. Now it&rsquo;s over $46.
Time to sell?
That&rsquo;s a complicated question, and everyone will have a different answer depending on their personal circumstances.
If you&rsquo;re concerned the trend can&rsquo;t continue, Byron says don&rsquo;t sweat it: &ldquo;The only thing that would keep precious metal prices from continuing upward would be some sort of global-scale &lsquo;recovery&rsquo; in faith in the dollar: for example, if the U.S. government got its act together and stopped with deficit spending, etc. Fat chance, right?&rdquo;
If you&rsquo;re sitting on handsome profits and you need ready cash? That might be another matter.
&ldquo;In my view, the last thing you want to sell is physical metal; in other words, sell your stocks or other &lsquo;paper&rsquo; gold, etc. before unloading the actual shiny stuff.
&ldquo;Because physical metal in your possession is the real McCoy, so to speak&hellip; If you own it and hold it, then it&rsquo;s yours; it&rsquo;s nobody else&rsquo;s liability, as is the case with financial instruments.&rdquo; Don&rsquo;t underestimate the privacy that comes with physical gold, either. &ldquo;Nobody really knows if you own metal or where you store it; not unless you tell them.&rdquo;
If you don&rsquo;t need to sell and you&rsquo;re ready to continue to ride the wave higher &mdash; or if you haven&rsquo;t caught the wave yet &mdash; <a href="https://dailyreckoning.com/the-gold-rush-of-2025-where-do-we-go-from-here/">Byron rattles off about a dozen names and tickers</a> for your consideration today at The Daily Reckoning.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Coal, Glorious Coal
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The White House is launching what The New York Times calls &ldquo;a coordinated plan to revive the mining and burning of coal.&rdquo;
In a plan that aligns tightly with Jim Rickards&rsquo; &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; thesis, the Interior Department says it will open 13.1 million acres of federal lands for coal mining. At the same time, the Energy Department is offering $625 million to upgrade existing coal plants.
Coal once generated nearly half of America&rsquo;s electricity. Now it&rsquo;s closer to 16% as more natural gas plants have come online, along with wind and solar.
&ldquo;This is an industry that was under assault,&rdquo; Interior Secretary Doug Burgum says of the regulatory environment in recent years. Coal was seen as such a dying industry that the VanEck fund family shut down its VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) at the end of 2020.
To be sure, there&rsquo;s a culture-war element at work here: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Fox yesterday that coal was &ldquo;out of fashion with the chardonnay set in San Francisco, Boulder, Colo. and New York City.&rdquo;
But the revival of interest in coal might have happened anyway given the enormous demands that AI is making on the power grid &mdash; a phenomenon we&rsquo;ve chronicled here since early 2024.
Even the NYT story acknowledges that &ldquo;growing interest in artificial intelligence and data centers has fueled a surge in electricity demand, and utilities have decided to keep more than 50 coal-burning units open past their scheduled closure dates, according to America&rsquo;s Power, an industry trade group. As the Trump administration moves to loosen pollution limits on coal power, more plants could stay open longer or run more frequently.&rdquo;
The market reaction to yesterday&rsquo;s announcement? Shares of industry leader Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) leaped 9.3% yesterday, although it&rsquo;s giving back some of those gains today.
Readers of Jim Rickards&rsquo; Situation Report are already well positioned to take advantage of what Jim calls &ldquo;Phase II&rdquo; of the White House&rsquo;s &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; blueprint. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2482415">If you&rsquo;re not among them, click here to watch this briefing from Jim.</a>

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />The Hostess With the Mostest
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Perhaps you&rsquo;ve never heard of her &mdash; but the doyenne of the nation&rsquo;s power elite is dead.
Elizabeth Morris &ldquo;Lally&rdquo; Graham Weymouth was a scioness of the Graham family, owners of The Washington Post for many decades before they sold it to Amazon&rsquo;s Jeff Bezos in 2013. She continued to hold the title of &ldquo;senior associate editor&rdquo; up until her death yesterday at age 82. Pancreatic cancer, her daughter says.
At the conclusion of my musings <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/jimmy-kimmel-and-rush-limbaugh">about Jimmy Kimmel</a> last week, I returned to the late George Carlin&rsquo;s phenomenal rant about how the wealthy and powerful in this country seek to keep Americans divided.
And only yesterday, in reply to a reader, I cited the political scientist Carroll Quigley&rsquo;s passage about how the two political parties &ldquo;should be almost identical, so that the American people can &lsquo;throw the rascals out&rsquo; at any election without leading to any profound or extreme shifts in policy.&rdquo;
To refresh my memory about that passage, I went back to an issue of 5 Bullets&rsquo; predecessor e-letter published in the summer of 2019. It was all about <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2019/07/08/its-a-big-club-and-you-aint-in-it/">a soiree for the wealthy and powerful</a> held every year in the Hamptons and hosted by&hellip; Lally Weymouth.
(Spooky synchronicity that she died yesterday, no?)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Weymouth&rsquo;s annual bash offered a revealing glimpse into the seamy intersection of finance, politics and the media.
The guest list was truly something else. Contrary to what you might expect, Democrats and Republicans were both well represented.
Donald Trump Jr. was there and so was Rudy Giuliani. Pro-Trump finance titans like Carl Icahn and Wilbur Ross were there too. Conservative-leaning media figures like Newsmax founder Chris Ruddy and Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan were also in attendance.
They comfortably rubbed shoulders with more mainstream personalities like Florida congressmember and longtime University of Miami president Donna Shalala, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Financial Times columnist Gillian Tett.
That was in 2019. The 2020 bash was canceled because of COVID but the tradition appears to have been revived.
Details of recent gatherings are scarce but a recent New York Post article mentions Andrew Cuomo being in attendance this summer, no doubt trying to scare up more funds for his bid to become mayor of New York. (Say what you will, but front-runner Zohran Mamdani seems to be a true outsider!)
The 2019 affair was a rare glimpse into how wealth and power in this country really work.
Well, that and the occasional selfie featuring Donald Trump&rsquo;s daughter Tiffany and Hunter Biden&rsquo;s daughter Naomi &mdash; also in the Hamptons.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4i57TD9eHbwPE7nQZBrzA6/26496dffb810250d8596f1aefee41d1f/TiffanyTrump.png" alt="Tiffany Trump" width="450px" />

As seen on Tiffany Trump&rsquo;s Instagram in 2018&hellip;
As George Carlin said, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s a big club &mdash; and you ain&rsquo;t in it!&rdquo;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Bitcoin-access-denied

Every few months brings a new “crypto goes mainstream” headline. But this one could truly be a game-changer.

Rumor: Fund Giant Catches “the Plague”

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Crypto ETFs: The Next Generation
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Here come the altcoin ETFs.
&ldquo;The crypto industry could be set for a flood of new crypto exchange-traded funds in October,&rdquo; reports Cointelegraph &mdash; &ldquo;with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission set to make their final decisions on 16 crypto ETFs next month.&rdquo;
Solana&hellip; Ripple&hellip; Litecoin&hellip; even Dogecoin (which we&rsquo;ll remind you started as a joke)...
All of them could have dedicated ETFs trading before the end of the month &mdash; giving easy access to retail investors without setting up a crypto wallet or even a Coinbase account.
The first one up for approval is a Litecoin ETF proposed by the crypto-centric firm Canary Capital. The SEC must give the yay or nay by Thursday.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It&rsquo;s worth stepping back just a moment to see how we got here&hellip;
<blockquote>October 2021: ProShares launches the first &ldquo;Bitcoin ETF.&rdquo; It&rsquo;s in quotation marks there because the ETF tracked the price of Bitcoin futures, not Bitcoin itself. So there wasn&rsquo;t a perfect 1:1 match in the price movement. It took another two years and change before the regulatory dam finally broke for actual crypto ETFs&hellip;</blockquote>
<blockquote>January 2024: The SEC approves the first Bitcoin ETFs linked to real Bitcoin traded on the spot market. Joe Biden&rsquo;s SEC chair Gary Gensler put up fierce resistance &mdash; but ultimately relented because BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wanted a piece of the crypto action for his iShares ETF family.</blockquote>
<blockquote>July 2024: It was inevitable that once Bitcoin ETFs won approval from the Biden SEC that Ethereum ETFs would also get the green light.</blockquote>
Today there are 21 ETFs that own either Bitcoin, Ethereum or both.
You might think the pace would have picked up as soon as the Trump 47 administration swept in eight months ago. Trump&rsquo;s pick for SEC chair, Paul Atkins, is so crypto-friendly he previously headed up a crypto lobbying outfit.
But everything in Washington takes time. Franklin Templeton put in applications for Solana and Ripple ETFs way back in March. Shortly after Labor Day, the SEC kicked the applications back to November.
&ldquo;The SEC has delayed decisions on multiple crypto ETFs throughout 2025, setting several new deadlines,&rdquo; says CoinTelegraph; &ldquo;however, the regulator has also taken steps toward shortening the timelines amid a friendlier approach to crypto.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Then a major change came 12 days ago &mdash; when the SEC approved a new listing standard for crypto ETFs.
The move &ldquo;eliminates the need for individual regulatory review of each crypto ETF application, allowing products that meet predetermined standards to launch without a lengthy case-by-case approval process,&rdquo; says the Reuters newswire.
&ldquo;That will slash the approval time for new crypto products to 75 days or less, from up to 270 days previously, industry sources said.&rdquo;
Curiously, ETF giants BlackRock and Fidelity are sitting out this new flurry of ETFs.
&ldquo;None of the ones with the deadline in October were issued by Fidelity or BlackRock, which are the two major players in the Crypto ETF space,&rdquo; says a note from Daan Crypto Trades. &ldquo;Regardless, might be something to watch out for in the weeks ahead,&rdquo;

[Editor&rsquo;s note: There&rsquo;s another development pending in Washington &mdash; even more imminent than the ETF approvals &mdash; that our James Altucher believes will lead to &ldquo;the biggest crypto opportunity of our lifetime.&rdquo;
James and his team have pinpointed five coins set to explode from an imminent Trump crypto law that could be signed as early as tomorrow. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2482026">Follow this link to watch James&rsquo; urgent briefing before Trump acts</a>.]

In the meantime, the crypto market is bouncing back from a &ldquo;whoosh&rdquo; late last week &mdash; Bitcoin back over $113,000 and Ethereum clearing $4,100 easily.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />&ldquo;In a World of $15,000 Gold&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s not just our own Jim Rickards anticipating <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-usd27-533-gold-solution">a five-figure gold price</a> down the road. Check out the following post that&rsquo;s getting scads of views on X&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/D6geBrb4Z0YEtiQ9KQ7Ce/b1bd44033874db29487b88c7a437d40e/Northstar.png" alt="northstar" width="540px" />
No, we won&rsquo;t make you squint. That&rsquo;s a chart of the gold price divided by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The big peak on the left side of the screen was when gold hit a record $800 an ounce in 1980 and the stock market was on its heels. The big bottom in the middle was at the turn of the century when gold traded for $260 while the dot-com bubble was starting to burst.
The ratio is breaking out above that red long-term &ldquo;resistance&rdquo; line. Hence the likelihood of gold exceeding $5,000 medium term and $15,000 longer term.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Thing is, once gold soars to such stupendous levels, it suggests something in the economy and society is badly broken. As some wags put it, a world of $15,000 gold is also a world of a $50 loaf of bread.
Or is it? As Jim Rickards&rsquo; senior analyst Dan Amoss points out on the Paradigm internal e-chat this morning, America is self-sufficient in bread.
Dan got to thinking about which goods would truly soar in price if confidence in the dollar collapses and gold soars to unimaginable heights.
As he sees it, the most vulnerable goods are &ldquo;1) the top net imported products that also 2) have low demand priced elasticity and few local substitutes.&rdquo; That is, stuff people have got to have at any price.
&ldquo;Here are the 10 largest net import categories to the U.S. in dollar terms. Some within these categories are low-demand-elasticity &lsquo;must haves&rsquo;:
<ul>
<li>Electrical machinery &amp; equipment</li>
<li>Machinery including computers</li>
<li>Vehicles &amp; automotive parts</li>
<li>Pharmaceutical products</li>
<li>Mineral fuels &amp; oils</li>
<li>Optical, technical &amp; medical apparatus</li>
<li>Furniture, bedding &amp; lighting</li>
<li>Plastics</li>
<li>Articles of apparel &amp; clothing</li>
<li>Toys, games &amp; sports requisites.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
Some interesting sectors to think about, if God forbid America goes the way of Weimar Germany a century ago&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Until then, precious metals are starting the week on yet another tear.
At last check gold is up $65 to a record $3,823. Silver is up 82 cents to another high-since-2011 level of $46.81.
But the cheery mood doesn&rsquo;t extend to all of the commodity complex. For no obvious reason oil has tumbled over two bucks as the week begins to $63.44.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />AI: The Wall of Worry
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;This AI-led bull market continues to climb a wall of worry,&rdquo; observes Paradigm&rsquo;s jack-of-all-trades editor Zach Scheidt.
Yes, the major averages stumbled toward the end of last week. But as we write this morning the S&amp;P 500 is up a bit to 6,664 &mdash; less than a half percent below last Monday&rsquo;s record close.
&ldquo;You&rsquo;ve probably seen some of the recent headlines,&rdquo; says Zach&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Nvidia just announced it is investing $100 billion into OpenAI to build data centers, with OpenAI using Nvidia&rsquo;s AI chips</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Nvidia is also spending $5 billion with Intel on custom chips for AI infrastructure</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Microsoft said it&rsquo;s spending a record $30 billion in capital expenditures this quarter, most of which is going to build AI data centers and related technologies</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Google plans on laying out $85 billion in spending this year, up from a prior estimate of $75 billion, as the AI giant invests in more servers and data center construction &lsquo;... primarily to meet cloud customer demand,&rsquo; according to the company&rsquo;s chief financial officer, Anat Ashkenazi.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;When you take into account inflation, there&rsquo;s been more spending on the AI buildout in the past three years than on interstate highway construction for more than 40 years,&rdquo; says Zach.
[Which also says something about the state of America&rsquo;s highways, but we digress&hellip;]
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;For AI stocks in particular, we&rsquo;re seeing a juxtaposition between two basic types,&rdquo; Zach continues:
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;The infrastructure companies building the data centers, the chipmakers and the power management businesses creating the ability to do AI processing. These are lower-risk plays that are seeing a lot of capital pour in</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The companies making AI applications &mdash; everything from software to robots to AI agents. These are more high-risk companies, not necessarily making money yet, but with huge upside potential.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;In a sense, the AI stock market is becoming more fractured, and it pays to be more choosy right now.&rdquo;
That choosy approach paid off huge last week for readers of Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha, where Zach serves as senior analyst. The trade was call options on an AI name that&rsquo;s carved out a niche in speech recognition. The first half of that trade zoomed 438% in less than three weeks &mdash; and readers are holding on for still more with the second half!
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Oh hey, did we mention something earlier about the state of the highways? Someone made it into a meme that&rsquo;s getting circulation&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1Cn3Z1Xo7TBpaqEovDQmpN/03a9ebfc3c088fdc2fc769483c627899/Comic-9-29.png" alt="comic" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Class Warfare
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Rich vs. Poor&hellip; or People vs. Government,&rdquo; says the subject line of a thought-provoking email after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/jimmy-kimmel-and-rush-limbaugh">last Thursday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;Hi Dave &mdash; once again I agree with most of the stuff in this issue but I think Caitlin Johnstone&rsquo;s quotes at the end need more nuance. I&rsquo;m familiar with Carlin&rsquo;s quote and that needs a little more nuance too.
&ldquo;Calling it a puppet show is a bit of an oversimplification. While it&rsquo;s true many powerful interests in the &lsquo;empire&rsquo; or the deep state remain in power no matter who&rsquo;s in charge, the left versus right dynamic is not totally meaningless theater and affects our lives differently depending on the party. I think the right is generally less bad but that says more about how crazy the left is.
&ldquo;And even issues that seem impossible to solve can be addressed in a sane manner, a good case in point being RFK Jr. and his battle against the health care cartel. I don&rsquo;t think he&rsquo;ll ultimately succeed in breaking it up but it&rsquo;s a good start.
&ldquo;The point is it&rsquo;s not the case that nothing important can change, though I don&rsquo;t expect problems like spending, financialization and currency debasement to be resolved anytime soon. So while it&rsquo;s true the system is a puppet show in some regards, that&rsquo;s not the whole story.
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s a similar issue with Carlin&rsquo;s quote. It sounds like he&rsquo;s saying all rich people are the problem (a common belief on the left) instead of those connected to politics.
&ldquo;I think he kind of realized this because he mentioned the &lsquo;ruling class&rsquo; but then oversimplifies it by talking about &lsquo;the rich.&rsquo; Personally, I would&rsquo;ve used the terms &lsquo;power elite&rsquo; or &lsquo;oligarchs&rsquo; to refer to them. I know comedians can&rsquo;t make it too complicated but he could&rsquo;ve clarified it. But the basic &lsquo;divide and conquer&rsquo; tactics are real. I think this is only a serious problem the bigger the government is.
&ldquo;Also, that meme at the end stinks of Marxism and I&rsquo;m surprised you used it. It should be neither a left versus right war nor a class war, but a &lsquo;down versus up&rsquo; war, i.e., the people versus the govt. And that can only come about with an informed public.
&ldquo;So yeah, not happening soon. Anyway, keep up the good work!&rdquo;
Dave responds: All valid points.
That said, even in the Trump era I gravitate toward the outlook of Carroll Quigley, the Georgetown poli-sci prof whose many famous students included Bill Clinton.
"The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the right and the other of the left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to doctrinaire and academic thinkers,&rdquo; Quigley wrote in the most famous passage of Tragedy and Hope, his 1966 magnum opus.
"Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the American people can 'throw the rascals out' at any election without leading to any profound or extreme shifts in policy."
Meanwhile, I too prefer &mdash; and at times have used &mdash; &ldquo;power elite,&rdquo; which was popularized by a left-leaning sociologist, C. Wright Mills, in a book of that name during the 1950s. It conveys more nuance than &ldquo;ruling class,&rdquo; which seems to be Tucker Carlson&rsquo;s default.
So yes, I totally agree &mdash; the issue is not wealth per se but rather wealth obtained through proximity to political power &mdash; clout, if you prefer. (Thus, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/altman-and-karp-shape-shifting-scum">my contempt</a> for Alex Karp and Sam Altman.)
It&rsquo;s a crying shame the Marxists <a href="https://www.libertarianism.org/articles/libertarian-class-analysis">hijacked the field of class analysis</a> &mdash; which was first staked out by liberal (in the old sense of the word) French historians a few decades earlier.
No, the cartoon/meme didn&rsquo;t convey that subtlety &mdash; but I was OK with it regardless because of how it captures the divide-and-conquer phenomenon. Ideally instead of a 19th-century tycoon type it should have depicted Klaus Schwab!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Crypto-etf

Altcoins could have dedicated ETFs trading before the end of the month, giving easy access to retail investors. 

Crypto Breakthrough

HODL-ON

In markets, there’s a saying about “the shakeout before the breakout.” That’s exactly where James Altucher and Chris Campbell believe crypto stands today.”

Keep Your (Crypto) Composure

Rush

The guy who made Rush Limbaugh’s career possible thinks the Trump administration’s approach to the media industry is “a disgrace.”

Jimmy Kimmel & Rush Limbaugh

Dear 5 Bullets Reader,
We&rsquo;re breaking from our traditional format today to share some relevant news&hellip; because markets move fast. Between breaking headlines and blaring &ldquo;analysis,&rdquo; it&rsquo;s tough to know which signals matter and which are just background noise.
Paradigm Press exists to cut through the static &mdash; delivering independent research and expert commentary that helps readers build and protect wealth.
Now, with the launch of the FREE Paradigm Press app, that mission just got a major upgrade.
For the first time, every issue, hot take and research nugget from Paradigm&rsquo;s team of analysts is right at your fingertips &mdash; timely, unfiltered and sorted for readers who can&rsquo;t afford to miss out. It&rsquo;s like having a private bull session with some of the sharpest minds in the industry.
One standout feature: the app&rsquo;s real‑time Daily Feed feature. This stream isn&rsquo;t just another market ticker or headline dump. Throughout the day, Paradigm&rsquo;s editors flag critical market moves, new themes and under‑the‑radar risks, distilled into actionable notes so you can react.
This week, that feed surfaced four themes that matter for investors&hellip;

<img class="alignleft" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/headshots/chris-campbell.jpg" alt="Chris Campbell" width="100" />

Editor Chris Campbell &mdash; Crypto Goes Mainstream in Bolivia
Chris drops a post &mdash; with a showstopper photo included &mdash; about the impact of stablecoins on daily life&hellip;
Bolivia lifted its crypto ban last year. In March, its state-owned oil company began accepting crypto for fuel imports. Now, big car brands like Toyota, Yamaha and BYD are accepting Tether (USDT) and even products at duty-free stores in the airport are priced in USDT.
Meanwhile, stablecoins just hit a $300 billion market cap, up $40 billion since the GENIUS Act was passed on July 18. [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent expects stablecoins to hit $3.7 trillion by 2030. James Altucher and I expect they will be at least 2X that. (If it continues at this rate, we&rsquo;re looking at AT LEAST $10 trillion.) Superapps (both DeFi and TradFi) and &ldquo;Layer 1&rdquo; protocols (like Ethereum) will be the no-brainer winners.
Dynamic, global shifts &mdash; all right at your fingertips.

<img class="alignleft" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/headshots/greg-guenthner.jpg" alt="Greg Guenthner" width="100" />

Market Analyst Greg Guenthner &mdash; Decoding the Crypto Signals
Greg&rsquo;s post zeroes in on the latest crypto dip, and why it might not be the doom signal it looks like&hellip;
Bitcoin is posting its worst day so far this month as it sinks below $113K. Meanwhile, Ethereum is down more than 6.5% since Sunday evening. But don&rsquo;t get too bearish! Crypto mining stocks are flashing red-to-green moves across the board this afternoon. If the miners continue to lead the coins, this is your signal that today&rsquo;s dip is setting up for a bigger rally.
That&rsquo;s the kind of contrarian signal you want in your back pocket before the market turns.

<img class="alignleft" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/headshots/adam-sharp.jpg" alt="Adam Sharp" width="100" />

Editor Adam Sharp &mdash; Avoid the Bond Trap
Adam warns against following old-school allocation advice&hellip;
Vanguard Group&rsquo;s president and CIO recently recommended investors adopt a 60% bond, 40% stock portfolio allocation. If (when) inflation rears its ugly head again, this advice could be disastrous for investors&rsquo; purchasing power. Fixed income (bonds) is a risky asset to hold when inflation threatens to return with a vengeance. We&rsquo;re entering an era of money printing and financial repression. It&rsquo;s not time to be overweight bonds.
Straight talk that could save your portfolio from death by &ldquo;safe&rdquo; assets.

<img class="alignleft" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/headshots/enrique-abeyta.jpg" alt="Enrique Abeyta" width="100" />

Trading Pro Enrique Abeyta &mdash; A Seasonal Setup Worth Watching
Finally, Enrique shares an intriguing chart and some perspective on what history says about markets heading into yearend&hellip;
Interesting table from my friend Ryan Detrick and Carson Investment Research showing that if the S&amp;P 500 ($SPX) is UP consecutively in the months of May, June, July, August AND September &mdash; that October has been DOWN on average. Not a lot, but down. Rest of the year, though? UP. Think we could tread water here a bit, but come November &mdash; watch out!
Just market folklore? When it comes from Enrique, it&rsquo;s worth paying attention.
Those are four big themes from four Paradigm voices, all hitting this week, all waiting there in the Paradigm Press app feed.
The magic here isn&rsquo;t just that you get their best ideas. You get them when they happen. No inbox delay. No wading through half your morning news sources just to figure out what actually matters.
This is the stuff our editors read, react to and riff on daily. And now you can see it all the instant they hit &ldquo;publish.&rdquo;
So readers never have to wonder: &ldquo;Did I miss something important?&rdquo;
If ever there were a time for an information upgrade, it&rsquo;s in this uncertain market. Major movers are shifting: The Fed is unpredictable, geopolitics are volatile and investors are looking for up-to-the-minute research from credible analysts.
The new Paradigm Press app answers that demand&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Speed: Get critical ideas fast</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Coverage: All subscriptions, plus exclusive free resources, in one place</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Daily Feed: Out-of-the-box market insights that clear away the clutter.</li>
</ul>
To cut through today&rsquo;s noise and uncertainty, a more effective tool is required. Discover for yourself by downloading the FREE Paradigm Press smartphone app for iPhone or Android.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2sxxoLAwhX6MrFznWBFDUL/b0db5ff9389ea61ffb8566b1b2f0bf9f/App.png" alt="download the app" width="540px" />
The Paradigm Press app is built for the investor who wants less clutter, more precision &mdash; and real-time access to some of the sharpest minds in financial analysis.
The Daily Feed? That&rsquo;s the icing on the cake: rapid-fire commentary and hot takes on every major shift, from stablecoins to the S&amp;P 500.
The app is right there &mdash; when you need it most.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/nvidia-openai-usd100b">Nvidia</a> and <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/openais-usd300b-shell-game">Oracle</a> are losing steam today, and the major U.S. stock indexes are following their lead. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500 and Big Board have each pulled back about 0.15% to 22,530&hellip; 6,645&hellip; and 46,240 respectively.
Crude, meanwhile, is in the green: up almost 2% to $64.66 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Precious metals? Gold&rsquo;s down almost 1% to $3,781.30 per ounce, and silver is down 0.55% to $44.35.
As for crypto, Bitcoin&rsquo;s up 1.85% to $113,730; Ethereum&rsquo;s up 0.75% to $4,190.
P.P.S. One more bonus item from the Daily Feed, courtesy of Enrique Abeyta&hellip;
How much does the AI build matter to the U.S. economy? A LOT! Here is a chart showing U.S. economic growth without it. 
Eventually it is going to slow down, and when it does &mdash; look out below! #recession
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6hXFmF3ZDT1EGDRgsbS9RO/d232d0147b4969456cc740b7be9733f9/image__115_.png" alt="chart" width="540px" />

PPG-App

We’re breaking from our traditional format today to share some relevant news… because markets move fast.

Bull Session 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /> Nvidia! OpenAI! $100B!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In the annals of AI headlines, yesterday brought us the ultimate &mdash; a bus full of nuns holding babies.
That&rsquo;s a reference to a novelty song that caught on briefly in the early 1980s &mdash; lambasting the media&rsquo;s penchant for the lurid and sensational.
The lyrics &mdash; totally fictional &mdash; were about a bus that crashed through a guardrail, tumbled over a cliff and crashed onto some rocks below. That was terrible enough &mdash; but yes, even worse, it was a bus full of nuns holding babies.
The punch line toward the end: &ldquo;The nuns were blind and the kids were refugees!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Along those lines, yesterday delivered the ultimate AI mash-up for the financial media. It had it all. Nvidia! OpenAI! And a nine-figure sum of money!
&ldquo;Nvidia and OpenAI, two U.S. giants powering the country&rsquo;s race for AI superintelligence, outlined an expansive partnership on Monday,&rdquo; says The Wall Street Journal &mdash; &ldquo;including plans for an enormous data-center build-out and $100 billion investment by the chipmaker into the startup.&rdquo;
The arrangement &ldquo;will allow OpenAI to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems&rdquo; &mdash; enough electricity to power 8 million homes, we&rsquo;re told.
The announcement comes on the heels of OpenAI committing $300 billion over the next five years to a deal with Oracle. (Reality check: OpenAI&rsquo;s expected revenue this year is $13 billion.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s at this moment we invoke the words of Paradigm&rsquo;s hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta, shared here on Thursday: &ldquo;Whenever you see numbers this big, you have to stop and ask &mdash; what&rsquo;s real cash, and what&rsquo;s just aspiration?&rdquo;
Answer, buried in the ninth paragraph of the Journal&rsquo;s article: &ldquo;Nvidia will make its investment in OpenAI progressively as each gigawatt is deployed to support data center and power capacity, the companies said. That could allow it to hedge its risk should OpenAI not be able to continue growing at its current rate.&rdquo;
Mr. Market&rsquo;s reaction? &ldquo;Details, shmeetails.&rdquo; The news pushed NVDA&rsquo;s share price up 4% yesterday to a record, the company&rsquo;s market cap approaching $4.5 trillion.
From the start of this year, Enrique has been warning us about the potential for a massive overbuild of AI infrastructure &mdash; not unlike the overbuild of fiber-optic lines for the internet in the late 1990s. Or to use a much older example, the overbuild of railroads in the 19th century.
Yes, all that excess capacity was put into use eventually. But in the interim, there was a vicious shakeout.
If you&rsquo;re old enough, you remember the internet example well &mdash; perhaps too well. The dot-com bust took down the price of Amazon, for instance, by 90%... before it rebounded and became a world-beating colossus.
It&rsquo;s likely to end in tears this time, too &mdash; just not right away, as this meme demonstrates. (Hat tip to Adam Sharp at our sister e-letter The Daily Reckoning&hellip;)
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4RINztoHqsFlKf3g2FkPko/f702c5947cb9503221eb9f307dc0cbec/Citrini.png" alt="Citrini" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;We've seen this movie before, right? The hype cycle kicks in, valuations go through the roof and then... pop!&rdquo;
So said Paradigm&rsquo;s AI and crypto authority James Altucher in this space on Sept. 6 of last year.
But he also said, in so many words, &ldquo;Not so fast.&rdquo;
&ldquo;If we were to draw a parallel to the internet boom, we'd be somewhere around 1994 or 1996. Remember, Amazon was just a twinkle in Jeff Bezos' eye back then. Google didn't exist. Facebook was still a decade away. The real game-changers were yet to come.&rdquo;
Fast-forward a year, and we&rsquo;d be somewhere around 1995&ndash;1997. Not the insane frenzy of 1999 and all the pain that followed as the dot-com bubble burst. (Check back with us in 2028!)

That said&hellip; James recently made a major change to his AI thesis &mdash; based on an event he expects could go down as early as tomorrow.
Even now, only a slim segment of the Paradigm readership base is up to speed on these fast-moving developments. <a href="https://pro.trendlabs.com/m/2480573">Follow this link for James&rsquo; up-to-the-minute debriefing</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Elevated Markets Can Stay Elevated
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Selfishly, I&rsquo;d love for the market to pull back this week and slip a bit into October,&rdquo; Paradigm trading pro Greg Guenthner tells his Trading Desk readers.
The S&amp;P 500 began the month of September at 6,415. As we write this morning, it&rsquo;s only a smidge under yesterday&rsquo;s record close of 6,692. That&rsquo;s a 4.3% gain in three weeks &mdash; during what historically has been the market&rsquo;s worst month.
For ideal trading opportunities, &ldquo;We desperately need a reset,&rdquo; says Greg. Even a little one would be great. The strongest stocks would reset to more reasonable levels where we could potentially enter for fresh trades. Some of the excess enthusiasm would drain from the market. And stocks would set up nicely for a beautiful end-of-year ripper.
&ldquo;Of course, the market doesn&rsquo;t care about my wants and needs. If only it were so simple! Instead, we have to trade what&rsquo;s in front of our faces. For now, that means concentrating on the rotation trade and many of the long setups that continue to pile up on our screens.&rdquo;
<blockquote>➢ Congratulations to Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha readers who collected 438% gains today on the first half of a trade recommended only three weeks ago. And hang on tight for the second half!</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, gold is touching another record and silver is touching another 14-year high.
At last check, the bid on the Midas metal is up to $3,771&hellip; and silver is over $44.
And that&rsquo;s after yesterday, when silver &ldquo;had a day for the ages,&rdquo; says our recovering investment banker Sean Ring in The Rude Awakening.
&ldquo;According to my charts, gold&rsquo;s new target is $4,586, representing a 21.8% increase from its current level. Silver&rsquo;s target is $53, representing an increase of over 20% from its current price.
&ldquo;Of course, they&rsquo;re just targets. That means we may not even hit them. Or we&rsquo;ll hit them. Even better, we may hit and then far exceed them. We simply don&rsquo;t know how far this train will run.&rdquo;
Meanwhile, crypto is stuck in the mud &mdash; Bitcoin under $113,000 and Ethereum under $4,200.
For no obvious reason, crude is up 2% on the day to $63.54.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Unpopular Tax Cut, Continued
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Is someone in the Trump administration reading these daily missives?
In late July, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/americas-birthright-enters-the-ai-age#3">we took note</a> of polling data suggesting only 42% of Americans support the &ldquo;Big Beautiful Bill&rdquo; passed over the summer. And 54% of independents oppose it.
As mentioned at the time, there was no effort to sell the American people on the necessity of the bill&rsquo;s most important provision &mdash; making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent.
No one was out there screaming to folks that if Congress didn&rsquo;t act, Obama-era tax rates would come back. No one warned folks in the 22% tax bracket that they&rsquo;d be going back to 25%, for example.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Now comes word of an effort to rebrand the bill retroactively.
&ldquo;So the bill,&rdquo; said the president last month. &ldquo;I&rsquo;m not going to use the term &lsquo;great, big, beautiful.&rsquo; That was good for getting it approved, but it&rsquo;s not good for explaining to people what it&rsquo;s all about. It&rsquo;s a massive tax cut for the middle class.&rdquo;
After a series of meetings in recent weeks, the GOP has settled on the name &ldquo;Working Families Tax Cut.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s not just the branding either. Apparently the administration has (finally) learned its lessons from the 2017 Trump tax cuts &mdash; which I once labeled &ldquo;the most hated tax cut in history&rdquo; for the administration&rsquo;s ham-fisted attempts to sell that tax cut to the public.
When it comes to the 2025 legislation, &ldquo;many of the tax cuts included in the law &mdash; including Mr. Trump&rsquo;s campaign promises to reduce taxes on tips and overtime, as well as an increase to the standard deduction and child tax credit &mdash; are retroactive to the start of the year,&rdquo; says The New York Times.
&ldquo;Because the Internal Revenue Service has not yet changed how taxes are withheld from workers&rsquo; paychecks to reflect the new law, Americans will largely claim the cuts after they file taxes early next year.&rdquo;
In other words, bigger refunds.
But there&rsquo;s still a problem here. How many taxpayers run the numbers to anticipate the size of a refund &mdash; or how much they owe &mdash; in advance? (I do &mdash; and my estimates are usually within 3% of the actual number &mdash; but I obsess over this stuff&hellip;)
So will they even realize their refund is bigger than it would be otherwise?
Probably not. And even if they do, &ldquo;people may not necessarily connect a higher tax refund to a law passed in Congress six months earlier,&rdquo; says the Times story. The paper quotes a poli-sci professor who says if they do get a bigger-than-expected refund, they usually credit their tax preparer!
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Thought for the Day
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In lieu of a meme today &mdash; we already had one above &mdash; here&rsquo;s some food for thought&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2Er4S8hqsnJwlH1yzzBUyD/202b72673d8fc99fc7431cf1f5f160b8/Spencer-9-23.png" alt="spencer" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" /> Mailbag: &ldquo;Receipts&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Dave, I am very behind on my reading. I have been traveling for work for seven days straight. After Charlie Kirk was assassinated I was incensed. My blood no longer boils,&rdquo; a reader writes.
[Presumably he read <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/deport-tucker-carlson">the 2025 censorship edition</a> last week? Maybe not&hellip;]
&ldquo;I have to think that some sort of change needs to happen on the amendment level and I am writing you because you are maybe the most rational person I have come across.
&ldquo;I have not fully fleshed out my idea, but I feel the press has a higher responsibility to be truthful and needs to have more accountability for libel and slander. Calling someone Hitler as an example should be off-limits. Conservatives just brush it off and find it ridiculous, but unfortunately people with TDS actually think Trump, Charlie Kirk and JD Vance are as bad as Hitler. We are talking about a man who was behind the deaths of over 11 million people.
&ldquo;In order to call someone racist the press should have to attach some receipts or proof. If I were to say all green people are inferior to silver people, then you could then call me a racist as long as you attached the proof.
&ldquo;If this assassin were to say a big cause of his hate for Kirk was from listening to the ladies on The View, for instance, there should be some repercussions for their part in this basic brainwashing. If the FBI found hours and hours of listening to a certain podcaster who regularly mislabeled people on the right, then that podcaster should be held accountable for his speech.
&ldquo;Opinions are opinions and I get that but facts are also facts. If I have never murdered anyone and then someone calls me a murderer, there is something very wrong with that.
&ldquo;Sorry for such a long letter. I would love to hear your thoughts.&rdquo;
Dave responds: First I appreciate the vote of confidence.
And I also appreciate your implicit recognition that the language of the First Amendment is clear &mdash; and any changes must come about through an additional constitutional amendment and not, say, a proclamation on a podcast by the chair of the FCC.
(More on the Jimmy Kimmel situation coming Thursday&hellip;)
But didn&rsquo;t conservatives spend the last four years fearing the Biden administration acting as the arbiter of truth and falsehood? Pressuring Big Tech to deplatform and demonetize people they judged to be engaged in &ldquo;misinformation&rdquo;?
And didn&rsquo;t conservatives once argue that decisions about truth and falsehood should not be left to the government but rather to the marketplace of ideas? That everyday people could be trusted to make up their own minds?
What changed?
For today, I&rsquo;ll conclude with the words of a former congressmember, one of the few who ever commanded my respect&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1p4YpLvYKSqxdYPPU4wh2p/33e1bff08638fb5223533600f9b10d5a/Justin.png" alt="justin tweet" width="540px" />
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

NVIDIA-OPENAI

Yesterday delivered the ultimate AI mash-up. It had it all. Nvidia! OpenAI! And a nine-figure sum of money!

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