<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Bitcoin&rsquo;s Power and Heat
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For years, Finland was just a small Nordic country, burdened by high costs on energy imports. Yet all that changed dramatically in 2023 when the nation flipped the switch on Olkiluoto-3, a nuclear reactor decades in the making.
This powerhouse is capable of producing up to 1.6 gigawatts of electricity at any moment &mdash; a staggering capacity that makes it one of the largest nuclear plants in the world. To put it simply, this single facility elevates Finland into a whole new league in energy generation.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/13ugtiRl78ID8PWBzrL8PD/5c57e505512a424aa08c834e276ab077/olkiluoto3.png" alt="Olkiluoto-3" />
Courtesy: TVO
For a country once deeply reliant on expensive Russian energy, Olkiluoto-3 signifies true independence and, more importantly, a surplus of power. When combined with Finland&rsquo;s rapidly growing wind sector &mdash; now providing about a quarter of the nation&rsquo;s electricity &mdash; the result has been an embarrassment of riches: a grid producing far more energy than needed.
&ldquo;In 2023 alone, Finland had more than 800 hours of negative electricity prices,&rdquo; notes Paradigm editor Chris Campbell. &ldquo;The grid literally paid people to take power off their hands.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />That&rsquo;s where Bitcoin comes in: Crypto mining companies quickly moved in to harness Finland&rsquo;s excess electricity.
Finland&rsquo;s cities rely on vast district heating networks &mdash; pipes traditionally heated by coal, peat or imported wood. But now, instead of wasting heat by releasing it into the arctic air, Bitcoin miners are channeling 70&deg;C water directly into these systems.
Already, one relatively modest 2-megawatt mining site is warming a community of 11,000 residents. &ldquo;Selling heat to cities can reduce their energy costs by 20&ndash;30%,&rdquo; Chris explains.
This isn&rsquo;t just a feel-good story; it&rsquo;s a clear example of how Bitcoin is evolving from a mere store of value into a powerful, practical utility.
Bitcoin rigs aren&rsquo;t just minting coins &mdash; they stabilize the grid during low demand, extend equipment lifespan thanks to Finland&rsquo;s cold climate and keep homes warm when global energy security feels shaky.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Finland is a case study in what happens when the curve bends: Abundance forces you to invent new ways to capture, store or redirect value,&rdquo; Chris adds.
Unlike neighboring Sweden and Norway &mdash; where mining faces restrictions and crackdowns &mdash; Finland has taken a different approach. This welcoming stance has positioned the country as an emerging hub for what many are calling the next financial and energy revolution.
Last week at the BTCHEL 2025 conference in Helsinki, the atmosphere was electric &mdash; both literally and figuratively. Chris was in the audience, witnessing firsthand the innovation and energy driving Finland&rsquo;s future.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/gcwivyIsQY8Z9gW4enXBg/6423866b94ab0ce4d6c6ffdf9069b80f/btchel2025.png" alt="A panel discussion at BTCHEL 2025" />
Courtesy: Xellox.io A panel discussion at BTCHEL 2025
Attendees weren&rsquo;t just there for panels and networking; they were witnessing something extraordinary: a country that once depended heavily on Russian energy now harnessing nuclear power and Bitcoin mining to reinvent its infrastructure and economy.
For investors, innovators and everyday people alike, Finland offers a striking glimpse of Bitcoin&rsquo;s true potential. It&rsquo;s about more than speculation &mdash; it&rsquo;s about real-world utility, resilience and the reinvention of value. &ldquo;And that makes all the difference,&rdquo; says Chris, &ldquo;in the new rules of money.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Careful What You Wish For
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;As far as the economy, cutting rates is not the sign of a good economy,&rdquo; comments Paradigm&rsquo;s macro expert Jim Rickards. This ahead of Jerome Powell&rsquo;s speech tomorrow at 10 a.m. EST at the Fed&rsquo;s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (More on that Friday.)
&ldquo;What does a strong economy look like?&rdquo; Jim posits. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s when banks are lending and people want to borrow for their investment opportunities. I would expect interest rates to be around 5%. And at that level I&rsquo;d say, &lsquo;OK, I&rsquo;ll borrow at 5% because I can invest at 15% and I can use 10:1 leverage and make 150% return.&rsquo;
&ldquo;That kind of risk-taking, lending, spending, investing &mdash; that is what a strong economy looks like, and it&rsquo;s associated with rates of 4%, 5%, 6%. What that means is that there&rsquo;s a demand for funds, banks are willing to lend and you have a healthy economy.
&ldquo;When I see rates at the short-term end going down, then that tells me the economy is weak,&rdquo; Jim adds. &ldquo;Trump should be careful what he wishes for. Low interest rates are not stimulus and are not a sign of economic strength. They are associated with recession and even depression.
&ldquo;Trump may get his lower rates,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;but may be shocked by the kind of economy that comes with them.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Walmart reported second-quarter earnings with revenue beating expectations and U.S. same-store sales rising 4.6%, prompting the company to raise its full-year sales forecast.
Before the market opened today, the company announced second-quarter earnings with adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, which missed the analyst expectation of $0.74. However, revenue exceeded forecasts at $177.4 billion, beating the estimate of $176.05 billion. But the company missed profit estimates due to rising costs from tariffs and more. At the time of writing? WMT shares are down about 3.85%.
Taking a look at the broader outlook on stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes are all down about 0.35% to 44,780 (Dow), 6,370 (S&amp;P 500) and 21,085 (Nasdaq).
Commodities, meanwhile, are in the green. The price of crude&rsquo;s up 0.75% to $63.20 for a barrel of WTI. Gold&rsquo;s taking a breather at $3,389 per ounce, and silver&rsquo;s up 1% to $38.15.
But crypto&rsquo;s down today: Bitcoin&rsquo;s lost 1.15% to $112,750; Ethereum&rsquo;s down 2.15% to $4,230.
Finally for market notes, we mention a few economic indicators&hellip;
<ul>
<li>The Department of Labor reports the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose by 11,000 last week, reaching a total of 235,000. This increase is meaningfully higher than the consensus estimate around 225,000 claims. Additionally, the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits increased by 30,000 &mdash; reaching nearly 2 million &mdash; which is the highest level since November 2021</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index dropped off a cliff to -0.3 in August, down from a strong 15.9 in July, signaling that manufacturing activity in the region contracted unexpectedly, despite analysts expecting a smaller decline to a positive 6.8. New orders dropped into negative territory for the first time since April, while prices paid by manufacturers rose to their highest level since May 2022.</li>
</ul>
In contrast to manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region, the overall U.S. flash manufacturing PMI shows expansion at 55.4, slightly higher than July&rsquo;s 55.1, signaling modest growth.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Buffett&rsquo;s Playbook Classic
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Despite UnitedHealth Group (UNH) being the Dow&rsquo;s worst performer in 2025, Warren Buffett saw value others missed. 
The company has faced serious challenges, including a massive earnings miss, CEO resignation, suspended forecast and Department of Justice investigation into Medicare fraud allegations. Panic ensued, sending the stock plummeting 50% &mdash; before Buffett&rsquo;s entry.
But Buffett&rsquo;s deep insurance knowledge, evidenced by his longtime ownership of GEICO, gives him confidence that negative headlines do not imply permanent damage. Crucially, UnitedHealth&rsquo;s valuation appears very attractive at 13 times earnings, well below peers Humana and Cigna, making it a bargain.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As Paradigm editor Davis Wilson explains, Buffett&rsquo;s strategy is rooted in buying when others flee.
Beneath the turmoil, UnitedHealth remains a health care powerhouse, generating $400 billion in revenue and $15 billion in profit last year. It dominates as the nation&rsquo;s largest health insurer and manages Optum, a vast data and services business. Its Medicare Advantage segment serves nearly one-third of Americans on the program.
Berkshire Hathaway also took new positions in sectors like homebuilding, steel and advertising, sticking to Buffett&rsquo;s playbook: buying durable businesses during downturns and holding long term.
As Davis notes, Buffett&rsquo;s UnitedHealth bet is a textbook example of his timeless lesson: Be greedy when others are fearful &mdash; and right now, health care fear has created opportunity.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Black Hills&rsquo; New Gold Rush
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />South Dakota&rsquo;s Black Hills region is seeing a resurgence in mining activity as modern companies eye rich mineral deposits that have been underused for decades. 
The Black Hills have a strong mining history dating back to the 19th-century gold rush, but new projects signal a fresh wave of development.
Notably, Dakota Gold is planning an open-pit gold mine near the historic Homestake site, targeting production to begin around 2029. Existing operations, like the one owned by Coeur Mining, also continue to contribute to the region&rsquo;s mineral output.
New mining initiatives are projected to create hundreds of jobs, providing a boost to local economies. Dakota Gold, for instance, anticipates around 250 jobs at its mine site, along with substantial tax revenues for the state &mdash; potentially reaching hundreds of millions of dollars over the mine&rsquo;s lifespan.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />While the economic benefits are clear, the mining revival does come with some concerns about environmental and cultural impacts. However, proponents argue that with responsible management, mining can coexist with preservation efforts.
Modern mining techniques enable companies to extract valuable metals more efficiently than in the past, unlocking resources that were once considered hard to access. This makes the Black Hills region competitive as demand for precious metals remains strong globally.
&ldquo;People still want the old myths about gold towns,&rdquo; says Martin O&rsquo;Neill, who oversees operations at Wharf Resources, &ldquo;but we&rsquo;re showing it can be done smart and clean.&rdquo;
Wharf Resources operates the largest active gold and silver mine in the Black Hills, located near Lead, South Dakota. Owned by Coeur Mining, the open-pit mine has been running since the early 1980s and employs about 260 local workers.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5JPyVGV29QQquTmZIw0s00/1a947fd861eacbe7af820148a381dae1/open_pit_Mine.png" alt="open-pit mine" />
Courtesy: Coeur Mining, South Dakota
The mine includes several pits and significantly contributes to regional gold production, accounting for nearly a quarter of Coeur&rsquo;s total gold output. Wharf Resources has expanded operations under a large-scale mining permit granted in 2012.
Overall, renewed mining activity in the Black Hills offers promising economic growth. But it&rsquo;s a balancing act: acknowledging, at the same time, the need to protect the area&rsquo;s unique environment and cultural heritage.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Your Takes: Buybacks &amp; BigCharts
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />"Can't remember who or when I read that when it comes to buybacks, most management teams buy at the wrong time,&rdquo; a contributor notes. &ldquo;The stock price, due to good times, is on its way up. Kind of a vicious cycle.&rdquo;
Another writes: &ldquo;If we look at past peaks in equity values, say in early 2000 and 2008, I would bet we had an increase in share buybacks, similar to what we have today. Then look out a couple of years and see where the share prices were then. I would bet we will see that management bought peaks, not valleys. Is Berkshire Hathaway buying now? Nope, they don't buy peaks. They buy dips.
&ldquo;Also interesting to note that insiders are big SELLERS now while their companies are buyers. Seems to be a dichotomy there.&rdquo;
Emily: Unfortunately for ordinary investors, buybacks often happen when stocks are riding high and not when value is most compelling. As Dave says, buybacks can sometimes signal confidence, but just as often, they simply reflect that <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-backseat-drivers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">management teams</a> have <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/good-for-wall-street-bad-for-main-street" target="_blank" rel="noopener">few better ideas for cash.</a>
As for Berkshire, they tend to wait to buy back their own stock when shares are undervalued, a lesson many CEOs could do well to learn. And yes, the disconnect between insider selling and corporate buybacks is always worth watching closely.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I&rsquo;m sure you&rsquo;re familiar with StockCharts.com. I don&rsquo;t know how it compares to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-backseat-drivers/#4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BigCharts,</a> but I like it,&rdquo; says a longtime reader.
&ldquo;You can noodle around with settings and achieve the desired minimalism. Plus, you can choose different color schemes. Check out the Color Vision Impaired setting (even if you&rsquo;re not). It&rsquo;s friendly to aging eyes!
&ldquo;Pages load quickly even with fuddy-duddy internet service.&rdquo;
Emily: StockCharts.com is indeed a worthy alternative, and its customization settings make it surprisingly user-friendly &mdash; especially for eyes that have been squinting at screens! Thank you for sharing the tip for &ldquo;Color Vision Impaired.&rdquo; Very inclusive.
Take care, reader! Join us tomorrow for a fresh 5 Bullets&hellip;

finland power hero

mobile masthead 5MIN

Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Bitcoin’s Real-World Utility

fmf hero buybacks

Wall Street’s Backseat Drivers

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Boomtown Dreams
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />"I have nothing against it, but it's pretty hush-hush around here," says a retiree named Garry Teske. "We don't hear much."
&ldquo;Here&rdquo; is Beulah, North Dakota &mdash; in the western half of the state, population just over 3,000.
And &ldquo;it&rdquo; is a project transforming a shuttered coal mine into a processing plant for nickel ore arriving from next-door Minnesota.
"Basically, when you put all your eggs in one basket and something changes, it makes it difficult for your community to thrive and continue to grow," says Beulah&rsquo;s economic development director Beaver Brinkman. "Hopefully, this will take and diversify our economy."
The hope and expectation is the plant will bring new jobs, maybe even restoring Beulah&rsquo;s boomtown days.
Not everyone around town is sold but at the same time, &ldquo;there's no organized opposition,&rdquo; says a recent NPR story.
Perhaps not surprisingly, NPR&rsquo;s piece goes out of its way to tell listeners this project began under the Biden administration &mdash; and that nickel is essential for electric-vehicle batteries.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But the project fits in perfectly with the Trump administration&rsquo;s mining-and-energy agenda &mdash; leveraging the $150 trillion mineral bounty that Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards calls the &ldquo;American Birthright.&rdquo;
Apart from its role in EV batteries, nickel helps to strengthen steel. Thus it&rsquo;s of immense interest to the U.S. military.
"What the Pentagon's trying to do is to lock in and preserve these raw materials for the highly sophisticated, technologically advanced warfare that the United States wields today,&rdquo; retired Marine Gen. John Allen tells NPR.
Too, there&rsquo;s the whole breaking-the-China-habit thing.
"The United States and Europe and other of the technologically advanced societies sort of backed themselves into an environment where we imported a lot of these materials,&rdquo; says Allen &mdash; &ldquo;mostly from China.&rdquo;
(For the record, Allen is a Democrat &mdash; he was on the short list to be Hillary Clinton&rsquo;s running mate in 2016 &mdash; but there&rsquo;s nothing he says here that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would take issue with&hellip;)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />To be sure, the Trump administration has done nothing to reverse Biden&rsquo;s $114 million grant for the nickel-processing plant. Nor another $20 million matching grant to look for more minerals in the United States.
The beneficiary of these grants is Talon Metals Corp. &mdash; a penny stock trading in Canada under the ticker TLO and on the U.S. pink sheets as TLOFF.
➢ Strictly speaking, Talon owns 51% of the Minnesota mine, with the mining giant Rio Tinto holding the other 49%. In addition to nickel, the mine produces copper and cobalt &mdash; both of which are also viewed by the Trump administration as &ldquo;strategic.&rdquo;
For whatever it&rsquo;s worth, despite the Biden administration&rsquo;s support, Talon&rsquo;s share price fell steadily during much of the Biden years.
But starting in late March, its fortunes have reversed dramatically thanks to a string of good drill results &mdash; the U.S.-traded shares leaping from 6 cents to over 27 cents this morning.

As impressive as a 350% gain is in only five months&hellip; Jim Rickards says much bigger Birthright gains are to be found right now in the Utah desert.
We told you yesterday how Jim was so impressed, he urged Paradigm VP of Research Aaron Gentzler to go see it for himself.
They&rsquo;re in total agreement. They see profit potential over the next 12 months of 4,800%. If you haven&rsquo;t followed along for Aaron&rsquo;s on-site visit, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2470131" target="_blank" rel="noopener">you really need to follow this link and give it a look</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Mutual Suspicion
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For everything you see these days about the Trump administration trying to &ldquo;de-risk&rdquo; or &ldquo;decouple&rdquo; from China&hellip; the sentiment runs both ways.
&ldquo;Although U.S. Treasuries have not yet reached the default threshold, their expansion is unsustainable,&rdquo; says an article published by researchers at Bank of China.
Bank of China is one of China&rsquo;s Big Four banks. The article turns up in China Money &mdash; a publication supervised by China&rsquo;s central bank, the People&rsquo;s Bank of China.
So this assessment doesn&rsquo;t come out of nowhere. It has a very official stamp of approval.
The report has been picked up by Hong Kong&rsquo;s newspaper of record, the South China Morning Post: &ldquo;Calls for China to gradually reduce its exposure to U.S. dollar assets are growing louder as Washington&rsquo;s national debt continues to set records,&rdquo; says the paper &mdash; &ldquo;reigniting persistent worries over the long-term sustainability of an investment formerly considered rock-solid&hellip;
&ldquo;China has been trimming its U.S. Treasury holdings for three consecutive months, while keeping them roughly unchanged at the US$756 billion level in June, according to data released on Friday by the U.S. Treasury Department. This remains the lowest level since March 2009.&rdquo;
The Bank of China article casts doubt on the Trump administration&rsquo;s major gambit &mdash; that it can goose economic growth to such an extent that the resulting tax revenue would start chipping away at Washington&rsquo;s $37 trillion debt burden.
The authors&rsquo; conclusions: &ldquo;[We need to] gradually adjust U.S. Treasury holdings and appropriately increase reserves of gold, key resources and strategic materials.&rdquo;
You could do worse than adjust your portfolio in line with the Bank of China&rsquo;s recommendations: Long-term U.S. Treasuries will be a long-term loser in the decades to come (even if they serve up short-term trade opportunities now and then)... while precious metals, base metals and energy are set to thrive.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As for the stock market this week, it&rsquo;s been like watching paint dry.
After meandering yesterday, the S&amp;P 500 is down about 0.4% as we write today &mdash; resting at 6,423. For perspective, that level was a record only last week.
Gold is similarly unexciting, the bid $3,321. But silver is on sale &mdash; down 54 cents to $37.40. Ditto for Bitcoin, now under $114,000 for the first time in two weeks.
It&rsquo;s a big week for retail earnings &mdash; and Mr. Market likes the report from Home Depot. HD whiffed on both the top and bottom lines&hellip; but stuck to its guidance for the rest of the year. With that, HD shares are up 3.2% at last check.
The big economic number of the day is a good news-bad news proposition: Housing starts blew out Wall Street&rsquo;s expectations, up 12.9% year-over year. But permits &mdash; a better indication of future activity &mdash; rang in well below expectations, down 5.7% from a year earlier.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Regime Change&hellip; or Cheaper Crude?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />U.S. oil prices sit near their summer lows this morning at $62.80 &mdash; thanks in part to fresh inflows of Venezuelan crude.
Going back to the first Trump administration, the U.S. government has repeatedly flip-flopped on Venezuela &mdash; sometimes amping up sanctions in hopes of toppling President Nicolas Maduro, other times easing the sanctions to keep Venezuelan crude flowing northward.
Last month brought an easing &mdash; the second Trump administration restoring Chevron&rsquo;s license to operate in Venezuela.
&ldquo;The Mediterranean Voyager and Canopus Voyager left Venezuelan waters on Friday loaded with Hamaca and Boscan heavy crudes, bound for the U.S. West Coast and Port Arthur, Texas, respectively,&rdquo; reports Julianne Geiger at the OilPrice website.
Chevron&rsquo;s reinstated license, Geiger writes, &ldquo;carries a crucial caveat: No revenues can flow to the Maduro government, an attempt to walk the line between sanctions enforcement and U.S. supply needs.&rdquo;
For all the bountiful crude coming out of America&rsquo;s shale patch, there&rsquo;s a problem: It&rsquo;s &ldquo;light, sweet&rdquo; oil, and U.S. refineries aren&rsquo;t equipped to process much of it.
U.S. refineries have long been geared toward thick, sulfurous grades of crude &mdash; and Venezuela has the world&rsquo;s biggest deposits of that stuff.
&ldquo;Heavy Venezuelan grades remain prized by U.S. Gulf refiners for their compatibility with coking units designed to run on similar slates from Mexico and Canada,&rdquo; Geiger continues.
&ldquo;With Mexico cutting heavy crude exports and Canada&rsquo;s pipeline flows constrained, Chevron&rsquo;s return could ease sourcing headaches for refiners like Valero, which is reportedly negotiating a supply deal for part of Chevron&rsquo;s share.&rdquo;
Chevron (CVX) stock has appreciated over 14% in the last three months; it&rsquo;s a favorite of our Jim Rickards. Valero (VLO) has been range-bound in the same time frame.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Price on Zuck&rsquo;s Life: $27 Million
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />How much is Mark Zuckerberg&rsquo;s life worth?
Or to put it another way, is it worth more than the CEOs of the other megacap tech-adjacent companies combined?
The Financial Times recently looked into 10 major tech companies and the amount of money they spend on personal security for their high-profile, hot-button bosses.
Put together, they spent over $45 million in 2024. And well over half that total &mdash; $27 million &mdash; was spent by Meta on protecting Zuck.
No one else came close&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Alphabet spent $6.8 million protecting Sundar Pinchai</li>
<li>Nvidia dropped $3.5 million to safeguard Jensen Huang</li>
<li>Apple spent $1.4 million protecting Tim Cook</li>
<li>Amazon plunked down $1.1 million on Andrew Jassy (and another $1.6 million on the founder known in some quarters as &ldquo;Beelzebezos.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
Elon Musk, you ask? Tesla says it spent $500,000 on Musk&rsquo;s security last year &mdash; but presumably his many other companies, the ones not publicly traded, help cover his security costs. (Never mind that one of them is a private security firm! It&rsquo;s called Foundation Security.)
So why is Zuckerberg such an outlier among CEOs of public companies?
&ldquo;Meta&rsquo;s costs are much higher than its peers&rsquo; because the group has agreed to provide security directly for members of Zuckerberg&rsquo;s family, and not just the executive himself,&rdquo; says the FT. &ldquo;As both the chief executive and founder of Facebook, Zuckerberg has maintained majority voting power, giving him greater influence over board decisions than his counterparts.&rdquo;
Whatever the case, CEO security overall is in a bull market.
Not only did Meta&rsquo;s spending for Zuck&rsquo;s security rise 17% from 2023&hellip; but Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia and Palantir all beefed up their security budgets by more than 10% year-over-year.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Is AI Too Far Over Its Skis?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I agree with Enrique Abeyta's assessment 100%,&rdquo; a reader writes after last Thursday&rsquo;s edition warning about <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/caveat-emptor1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a looming overbuild &mdash; dare we say &ldquo;bubble&rdquo; &mdash; in AI infrastructure</a>.
&ldquo;The reason? Quantum-based software stacks already outperform what the biggest, baddest, fastest AI chips have ALL been built on: the old relational legacy platform that today is really obsolete and very much input/output limited; always will be. Surprise! Quantum runs on current (legacy) hardware also.
&ldquo;Yes, the new NVDA (and other) chips are blazing fast but are vastly slower in computational power, as they all are I/O limited to what quantum computing can do today, as in right now.
&ldquo;Strange how Jensen Huang was asked about his opinion on quantum computing just eight months ago and he said it is still 20&ndash;30 years out, yet has just recently made positive comments about it. I believe he is fully aware of the numerous limitations of legacy programming-based &lsquo;AI&rsquo;, such as permitting, off-scale power consumption, far-beyond-reasonable cooling requirements and consuming hundreds if not thousands of acres of both public and private land for just one data center.
&ldquo;When will adequate power become available? It is simply not available today and a recipe for disaster.
&ldquo;AI is all the hype, to be sure. Every company (such as yours) is putting it &lsquo;all in&rsquo; various rehearsed and boring webinars.
&ldquo;Why not use a computer that runs on 1,000 watts of power, that you can hold in your hand, requires no special cooling, takes up far less space than a kitchen dining room table and runs a thousand times faster for the same output that AI is all the brag about?
&ldquo;When this word gets out to the savvy public, and it will, that will be the death of AI as it is currently being presented.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Your conviction is admirable. Presumably you&rsquo;ve put your money where your mouth is.
But you&rsquo;re looking at some long-term bets &mdash; things that could take years to pay off, and with heart-stopping levels of volatility along the way.
Off the top of my head, there&rsquo;s one quantum computing name in the Atlucher&rsquo;s Investment Network portfolio. It&rsquo;s up 108% in just under two years &mdash; but it took a 63% plunge just in the first quarter of this year!
If you&rsquo;re willing to construct a portfolio jam-packed with names like that&hellip; and hold onto them for dear life&hellip; and for years at a time&hellip; more power to you. (I suppose I&rsquo;ve done the same with gold miners, come to think of it.)
But most folks don&rsquo;t have that kind of patience or risk tolerance. And while we&rsquo;re not a mass medium, our entry-level newsletters do reach tens of thousands of subscribers.
So by and large, the quantum names recommended by the Paradigm editors have been short-term affairs in our more costly trading services &mdash; taking advantage of chart patterns, fleeting narratives and sheer momentum to capture high double- or triple-digit gains in a matter of weeks or months.
Quantum&rsquo;s time will come. But as the saying goes, events that are inevitable aren&rsquo;t necessarily imminent!

china-nickel-fmf-hero (1) (1)

Breaking the China Habit

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />From Obit to Opportunity
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Last year, Intel&rsquo;s obituary was practically written.
When INTC shares plunged below $20 after disastrous earnings in August 2024, analysts dismissed the onetime king of U.S. semiconductors as &ldquo;dead money.&rdquo;
The company had lost its footing in AI, ceded ground to Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and was lugging around a costly foundry business nobody took seriously.
But as Paradigm&rsquo;s science-and-technology expert Ray Blanco recounts: &ldquo;Sometimes the most hated stocks become the most essential.&rdquo;
Over the past few weeks, that shift has come into focus with Washington, Tokyo and Silicon Valley suddenly circling Intel.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Everything changed with one headline on Monday: Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was in talks to take a 10% stake in Intel. 
&ldquo;The mechanism is elegant,&rdquo; says Ray. &ldquo;Instead of writing a check, the government would convert Intel's $10.9 billion in CHIPS Act grants into equity.
&ldquo;Instant ownership without new spending. And instant validation that Intel isn't just another semiconductor company &mdash; it's critical infrastructure.&rdquo;
More than that, it was instant validation of Intel&rsquo;s role as the only American company capable of manufacturing advanced chips inside U.S. borders.
Within days of the Bloomberg report, SoftBank added fuel to the fire. The Japanese tech giant dropped $2 billion on Intel stock at $23 per share.
&ldquo;This isn&rsquo;t charity,&rdquo; Ray says. &ldquo;SoftBank already owns Arm Holdings, Intel&rsquo;s design rival. They understand this ecosystem better than anyone.&rdquo; If a player of that caliber decides to spend billions, Intel gains credibility fast.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;By the way, [the Trump administration] just negotiated 15% revenue-sharing deals with NVIDIA and AMD for China sales,&rdquo; says Ray.
That&rsquo;s a <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/extortion-racket" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stiff penalty</a> on future exports, especially since &ldquo;these aren&rsquo;t even Nvidia&rsquo;s best chips &mdash; they&rsquo;re neutered versions designed to comply with export restrictions.&rdquo;
Here&rsquo;s the kicker: &ldquo;What if Trump uses this penalty as leverage to push AMD and Nvidia to manufacture those China‑bound chips at Intel instead? &lsquo;No penalty if made at Intel.&rsquo;&rdquo;
Such a maneuver would do three things at once&hellip;
<ul>
<li>First, it hands Intel exactly what it lacks: &ldquo;major customers for its foundry business &mdash; what commercial real estate agents call &lsquo;anchor tenants&rsquo;&rdquo;</li>
<li>Second, it gives Nvidia and AMD a way to reduce their financial burden without ceding ground in China</li>
<li>And third, it brings more advanced semiconductor production back to American soil.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;That would be textbook Trump dealmaking,&rdquo; Ray says: &ldquo;Use the stick to create the carrot that solves multiple problems simultaneously.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;From a chart perspective, Intel is approaching a critical inflection point,&rdquo; adds Ray. &ldquo;The stock is testing resistance around $26 &mdash; a level that's been capped multiple times over the past year.
&ldquo;A clean break above $26 opens the door to $30, filling the gap from last August's crash,&rdquo; he says.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4Mdc3VekmLLME6MN3LuajV/8757e49fa952f9ea487925cb9988e41e/ALN-Alert-08-20-25_1_.png" alt="Intel Chart" />
The blue horizontal line: Intel&rsquo;s $26 resistance level
&ldquo;That $30 level isn't arbitrary,&rdquo; he continues. &ldquo;It represents a pre-crisis valuation before Intel's AI struggles became apparent.
&ldquo;With government backing and SoftBank validation, that level looks achievable again.
&ldquo;Sometimes the most hated stocks become the most essential when the world changes around them,&rdquo; Ray concludes. &ldquo;Intel just showed us that it is considered too big to fail.
&ldquo;That's exactly the kind of transformation that creates massive investment opportunities for those positioned early.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Mr. Market&rsquo;s Sugar High
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />During his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair, Jerome Powell hinted this morning at a potential policy pivot &mdash; if the data cooperate, of course.
He points out the labor market is still (relatively) tight and inflation has cooled from its pandemic peak, albeit *checks notes* inflation remains &ldquo;somewhat elevated.&rdquo;
Powell danced around the topic of interest rates, saying the shifting balance of risks &ldquo;may warrant&rdquo; changes, subtly planting the seed that rate cuts could be on the table as soon as September.
He insists the Federal Open Market Committee is sticking to its religion of data-driven decisions, not influenced by politics &mdash; even though President Trump has been clamoring for rate cuts. But Powell (exasperatedly?) stands behind the Fed&rsquo;s dual mandate: balancing employment and price stability.
In the end, Powell&rsquo;s speech was all about keeping options open; no wild rides, just the usual cautious maneuvering. At his final curtain bow in Jackson Hole, it&rsquo;s clear he wants to be remembered as the guy who tried, at the very least, to soft land the plane.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Does the Fed have Wall Street&rsquo;s back again? The market certainly seems to think so&hellip; Stocks are rallying today with the Dow gaining 2% to 45,700 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+1.85%) and S&amp;P 500 (+1.60%) are up to 21,490 and 6,470 respectively.
But it&rsquo;s a different story for crude; oil&rsquo;s slightly in the red at $63.50 for a barrel of WTI. Precious metals, on the other hand, are getting some love. The price of gold is up almost 1% to $3,413.10 per ounce, and silver&rsquo;s gained 2.25%, just under $39 now.
The crypto market, which has been hammered this week, is likewise soaring: At the time of writing, Bitcoin&rsquo;s up 3.85% to $116,500 while Ethereum&rsquo;s up an impressive 9.5% to $4,635.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Money on the Move
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For much of the past year, the stock market has been propelled by a familiar group of mega-cap tech giants. 
&ldquo;Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla captured investor attention,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s retirement-and-income specialist Zach Scheidt. &ldquo;Artificial intelligence and cloud computing fueled a wave of enthusiasm, lifting these household names even as economic uncertainty lingered.&rdquo;
But now that dominance appears to be fading. &ldquo;The once-untouchable highflyers are showing cracks,&rdquo; Zach explains. With profit-taking emerging, investors are rotating toward new opportunities.
&ldquo;This doesn&rsquo;t spell doom for technology,&rdquo; he adds, &ldquo;but it does flash a warning sign. For many investors, now is the time to take some gains off the table.&rdquo;
Where is that money going? One surprising development is a renewed interest in smaller technology firms.
&ldquo;Instead of the giants with enormous valuations, attention is turning toward niche companies with unique patents, specialized AI tools or newly commercialized technologies,&rdquo; Zach notes. These early players may hold more upside than the familiar titans.
But the rotation story doesn&rsquo;t end with tech&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Two areas stand out to me in particular: biotech and homebuilders,&rdquo; Zach says.
&ldquo;For years, biotech stocks have been stagnant, weighed down by regulatory uncertainty, high research costs and a lack of enthusiasm compared to flashier tech themes.
&ldquo;The result has been a buildup of pressure beneath the surface.&rdquo;
Compressed valuations create &ldquo;a powerful setup whenever momentum returns.&rdquo; For broad exposure, Zach points to the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB).
Homebuilders are also gaining traction. &ldquo;Housing affordability looks bleak,&rdquo; Zach admits, &ldquo;but markets often price in change early.&rdquo; If interest rates fall, home demand could rebound sharply. ETFs including ITB and XHB offer straightforward sector access.
&ldquo;In this environment,&rdquo; Zach concludes, &ldquo;flexibility is key. The market is rotating &mdash; and recognizing where the money is flowing next is how investors stay ahead.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />A Nord Stream &ldquo;Saboteur&rdquo; Is Arrested
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Nord Stream pipeline sabotage will stand as one of the most instrumental events in 21st-century history. 
On Sept. 26, 2022, underwater explosions tore through three of the four Nord Stream natural gas pipelines running beneath the Baltic Sea between Russia and Europe. These pipelines had been a key conduit for Russian natural gas supplies to Germany and much of Western Europe since Nord Stream 1&rsquo;s launch over a decade ago.
The blasts unleashed massive gas leaks near Denmark&rsquo;s Bornholm Island; in fact, it was the largest natural gas leak ever recorded. Moreover, the damage pushed an already fraught geopolitical conflict into new territory.
The incident occurred amid rising tensions triggered by Russia&rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. And though the explosions were unmistakably acts of sabotage &mdash; confirmed via explosive residue and seismic data &mdash; the saboteur who executed the attacks remains fiercely contested.
Bear in mind, the U.S. long opposed Nord Stream 2&rsquo;s completion, fearing it would deepen Europe&rsquo;s energy dependence on Moscow, thereby enhancing Russia&rsquo;s leverage in the region.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1C6jiZA8F6ep3l4x5jXFHS/732fbd27d087a83c204bd24496cf7c6a/condoleeza_tweet.jpg" alt="red. tweet" width="350px" />
<a href="https://x.com/redstreamnet/status/1673329288500727812" target="_blank" rel="noopener">On the record:</a> Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at German channel N24 about U.S. energy aspirations (May 16, 2014).
More specifically, President Joe Biden publicly promised to &ldquo;bring an end&rdquo; to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia were to invade Ukraine.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In February 2023, Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published a report naming the U.S. Navy as the perpetrator, with divers planting explosives during covert NATO operations months before the invasion.
Hersh cited secret planning within the Biden administration, a collaboration with Norway and a use of modified submarines &mdash; all vehemently denied by U.S. officials. (Despite Hersh&rsquo;s impressive track record of major scoops, <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2023/02/10/the-c-word-conspiracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he was branded a &ldquo;c&rdquo; word.)</a>
Complicating matters further, Western media and the CIA floated a narrative involving a <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/orphan-drug-breakthrough/#3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&ldquo;pro-Ukrainian&rdquo;</a> team using a rented yacht, the Andromeda, to deploy explosives. Critics, however, question the plausibility of this theory due to extreme technical challenges.
Just how implausible? A report published in August 2024 details how German news network ARD chartered the Andromeda, discovering the 49-foot yacht was poorly maintained and ill-equipped for the complex task of attaching explosives 260 feet underwater &mdash; a mission that would have required a team of expert divers and specialized gear, possibly including a crane and decompression chamber.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/DMvMKJHVc8I33IAA49GGv/4f6463cd03ced8a0cdeec6b15c9531ea/nord_damage.png" alt="Damage to the Nord Stream pipeline" />
Courtesy: NDR Damage to the Nord Stream pipeline
The Andromeda was so unseaworthy, by the way, that the captain and crew pulled the plug on ARD&rsquo;s Baltic Sea investigation, hiring a &ldquo;professional&rdquo; vessel instead.
Which brings us to Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025: Italian authorities arrested Serhii K., a former Ukrainian military officer, accused of leading the sabotage team behind the Nord Stream pipeline attacks. German prosecutors allege he commanded a group including two soldiers and four civilian divers, covertly recruited by a Ukrainian military unit, to plant explosives on the pipelines
Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to deny involvement; that said, the arrest this week marks the first legal action implicating a patsy &mdash; er, suspect &mdash; in the Nord Stream operation. Stay tuned&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Stupid Rebranding Tricks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Earlier this year, the cable news network MSNBC decided it was time for a major rebrand. 
For context, MSNBC was formed from a partnership in 1996 between Microsoft and NBC News. This collaboration saw Microsoft investing $220 million for a 50% stake in the cable channel.
The idea was to create a news outlet that could leverage both NBC&rsquo;s traditional broadcast capabilities and Microsoft&rsquo;s internet expertise. Its name: a portmanteau, combining &ldquo;MSN,&rdquo; Microsoft's internet brand, with the peacock network.
Now, almost three decades later, the move to rebrand as MS NOW &mdash; which stands for My Source News Opinion World &mdash; marks a break from that original tech-news identity as the network spins off from NBCUniversal, dropping both the original name and the iconic peacock logo.
Sounds very corporate and strategic, right? But the chosen web domain for MS NOW (namely, msnow&zwnj;.&zwnj;com) actually links to a South Korean site explaining&hellip; snowmobiles.
Despite MSNBC&rsquo;s big announcement, the debacle highlights how critical domain checks are. To say nothing of the ill-advised name selection&hellip; 
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3EBbVAIonoTAaUj8Hexo0c/4816ae0811c0052a304d434fed45003c/msnow.png" alt="MSNOW Tweet" />
Another social media wag quips: &ldquo;So&hellip; is there a Mr. Now?&rdquo;
On that note, happy Friday! Take care, and enjoy your weekend.

intel hero fmf (1)

Wall Street Buried Intel

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Trump&rsquo;s Billion-Dollar Energy Bet
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />"For too long, the United States has relied on foreign actors to supply and process the critical materials that are essential to modern life and our national security,&rdquo; says Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
With that in mind &mdash; as well as an executive order issued by Donald Trump as soon as he returned to the White House &mdash; Wright made a big announcement a few days ago.
The Energy Department is taking about $1 billion of its $161 billion annual budget&hellip; and using it &ldquo;to speed the development of U.S. critical minerals and materials, used in everything from electric vehicle batteries to semiconductors,&rdquo; reports the Reuters newswire.
&ldquo;The department intends to offer funding to advance and scale up mining, processing and manufacturing technologies in the critical minerals and materials supply chains, sectors that have been dominated by China and other countries.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;China holds a dominant global position in the supply of critical minerals and rare earths, but its grip on the value chain &mdash; minerals processing and magnet production &mdash; is even tighter,&rdquo; writes Irina Slav at the OilPrice website.
If all of this seems to dovetail with the &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; thesis of Paradigm&rsquo;s own Jim Rickards, you&rsquo;re absolutely right.
As Jim&rsquo;s been telling us from the moment Trump returned to the presidency, the administration is keen to tap into the mineral wealth on federal lands, a bounty worth as much as $150 trillion.
Whatever your opinion of federal subsidies to business&hellip; it&rsquo;s apparent the Energy Department is betting this $1 billion outlay will pay back many times over.
The breakdown, according to an Energy Department statement, goes something like this&hellip;
<ul>
<li>$500 million &ldquo;to expand U.S. critical mineral and materials processing and derivative battery manufacturing and recycling&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>$250 million in aid &ldquo;for American industrial facilities that have the potential to produce valuable mineral byproducts from existing industrial processes&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>$135 million &ldquo;to enhance domestic supply chains for rare earth elements&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>$50 million for something called the Critical Minerals and Materials Accelerator program, which encompasses everything from rare earths to lithium to silicon carbide for semiconductors</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>$40 million &ldquo;to develop technologies to recover critical minerals from industrial wastewater.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
To make sure the feds won&rsquo;t be pouring money down a black hole, there are strings attached for any company that wants access to these funds: They&rsquo;ll have to pony up at least half the cost of whatever project it is that they want subsidized.
The Paradigm team will keep a close eye on which companies apply for this aid &mdash; and which ones have an inside track for approval.
Before it&rsquo;s all over, this $1 billion program could serve up at least a half-dozen lucrative plays &mdash; and some of these awards could be announced before year-end.

That said, you don&rsquo;t have to wait anywhere near that long to start collecting big Birthright gains.
In fact, one opportunity is so urgent that Jim Rickards recently asked my colleague of 18 years &mdash; Paradigm VP of Research Aaron Gentzler &mdash; to visit a remote patch of federal land in Utah.
What Aaron found confirmed everything Jim suspected; the Birthright story is about to move into Phase II &mdash; typically the most profitable phase in every resource-investing boom.
The 12-month profit potential is 4,800% &mdash; for reasons Aaron will show you <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2469648" target="_blank" rel="noopener">when you click to watch his on-the-spot report</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Trump&rsquo;s New Reality Show
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Depending on what you read, the number of people Donald Trump is considering to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair is as high as 11.
And Powell still has nine months remaining in his term.
If something strikes you about this process that seems familiar, Paradigm&rsquo;s jack-of-all-trades analyst Zach Scheidt says you&rsquo;re onto something.
&ldquo;In a similar vein as his old TV show The Apprentice, Trump wants to &lsquo;audition&rsquo; 11 new Fed chair candidates through a long, deliberate and very public process,&rdquo; Zach wrote on Friday for Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha subscribers.
&ldquo;It stands to reason that these candidates could try to outdo each other in their desire to see rate cuts.
&ldquo;And four people on this list are already voting members of the Fed. What better way to demonstrate to Trump that they&rsquo;re really in favor of rate cuts than to VOTE in favor of cutting at upcoming meetings in September, October, December and January?
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s why I expect the potential for rate cuts in the near future will rise as Fed members vie to get on Trump&rsquo;s good side. This is Trump&rsquo;s &lsquo;workaround&rsquo; to getting rid of Jerome Powell.&rdquo;
Yep. Looking at the futures markets this morning, traders are pricing in an 83% probability the Fed will cut at its next meeting 31 days from today. This is one time you don&rsquo;t want to bet against conventional wisdom!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Expectations for rate cuts are keeping a floor under the stock market, with only two weeks remaining before Labor Day weekend.
The major averages are little moved as the new week begins &mdash; but also within striking distance of all-time highs. The S&amp;P 500 is down a mere eight points from Friday&rsquo;s close at 6,442.
Not much movement in the precious metals, either &mdash; gold at $3,333 and silver a couple pennies below $38. Crude sits a hair under $63. Bitcoin has retreated below $116,000.
One economic number of note: Homebuilder sentiment is in the toilet, with the monthly housing market index from the National Association of Home Builders clocking in at 32. For reference, anything below 50 suggests lousy confidence among homebuilders. And this is the first time since the early 2010s that the number has registered four straight months under 35.
The only scheduled market-moving event this week is Jerome Powell&rsquo;s final address as Fed chair at the annual confab of global central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Gold: Now Is When the Rally Really Starts
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In addition to the three reasons not to sell your gold that were spelled out <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/dont-sell-your-gold-now" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in Friday&rsquo;s edition</a>, consider this&hellip;
It&rsquo;s only now that everyday retail investors are latching onto gold.
For three years, we&rsquo;ve chronicled how central banks have been loading up on gold at a record pace. The catalyst was the Biden administration&rsquo;s unprecedented sanctions on Russia&rsquo;s dollar-based assets &mdash; especially U.S. Treasuries.
The leaders of every other country in the world not on friendly terms with Washington wondered, Are we next? So they started grabbing gold with both hands. As our Jim Rickards has emphasized all along, &ldquo;Gold is a physical, nondigital asset that cannot be stolen, frozen or seized provided it is in safe storage.&rdquo;
But even as that central-bank buying propelled gold from $1,800 in 2022 to over $3,300 now&hellip; mom-and-pop investors sat out the rally.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Until now. Retail investors are starting to pile in.
&ldquo;You've seen it mainly reflected in the amount of physical gold held by gold-backed ETFs,&rdquo; explains Ryan McIntyre &mdash; managing partner at the Canadian resource-investing giant Sprott.
&ldquo;We've seen that actually increase for the first time in many years after bottoming out in May of last year.&rdquo;
McIntyre tells Kitco News that ETF gold holdings are up 11% year-to-date. And that&rsquo;s still down 17% from their peak in 2020.
&ldquo;Still plenty of room to go before we hit an all-time high of gold held by gold-backed ETFs,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;But you have seen the institutional and retail investor come along a little bit. To me, that's a new story.&rdquo;
As he sees it, Joe and Jane Average no longer feel complacent about the wider world: &ldquo;They've been pretty comfortable with their existing holdings, S&amp;P 500-type stocks, that type of thing. And I think for the first time in a while, they started to reassess a little bit on the risk side in terms of how much risk they're taking and how much they're willing to take.&rdquo;
Remember that no bull market takes off in a huge way until everyday folks start to participate. For instance, the epic bull market in stocks that ran from 1982&ndash;2000 saw the most explosive gains only after normie Americans entered the market en masse starting around 1995.
Based on the figures McIntyre cites, this final most lucrative stage is just beginning&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Stupid Fast-Food Promotion Tricks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />How could McDonald&rsquo;s corporate in Japan not anticipate this outcome?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7hkajOyq4rfMoHLvBAYie1/04b7ddc20bf84edaee8fec0af4ac12d9/nintendo_wire_tweet.png" alt="Nintendo Wire tweet" />
McDonald&rsquo;s planned a three-day campaign: With every Happy Meal purchase, customers would get an exclusive set of Pokemon cards. Price? 500 yen or about $3.50. Limit five Happy Meals per customer.
The promotion was cut off after the first day: Turned out it was trivially easy for avid Pokemon collectors &mdash; and resellers &mdash; to get around the five-meals-per-customer limit with online orders.
No sooner did the campaign launch than some of the cards turned up on eBay selling for $25 or more. At the same time, &ldquo;social media feeds were filled with surreal scenes,&rdquo; reports Business Insider &mdash; &ldquo;bags of Happy Meals abandoned in stores, piled outside outlets or stuffed into bike baskets.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/423Rxv5pvZME0zjxyz7TL3/6bfa87be7e8df1880c8cbf5a47f8ab98/mcd_collage.png" alt="Abandoned Happy Meals" />
&ldquo;Congratulations on your thriving business,&rdquo; snarks an account on X that assembled this collage of pictures&hellip;
&ldquo;My McDonald&rsquo;s had zero [people] in line but there were tons of online orders,&rdquo; says Patrick Batac, a civilian contractor at the U.S. Yokota Naval Base. &ldquo;There were literally bags of Happy Meals overflowing the counters waiting to be picked up and delivered,&rdquo; he tells the military newspaper Stars and Stripes.
"McDonald's does not tolerate the purchase of Happy Meals for the purpose of resale, or the abandonment or disposal of food," said the obligatory McDonald&rsquo;s press release that was no doubt vetted by a roomful of lawyers.
That said, by many accounts the fiasco was a veritable feast for Japan&rsquo;s pigeon population&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: The Bismarck, Random Praise and Microsoft
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The Antoni photo presented by your reader looks eerily like an amateurish AI composite,&rdquo; says a brief email that came in after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/its-trumps-war-now" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
I&rsquo;ve been at this daily e-letter thing for 15 years and I&rsquo;m still surprised at times by the topics that have &ldquo;legs&rdquo; in our mailbag. To wit, a large image of the Nazi-era German warship Bismarck that appears in the background of interviews with E.J. Antoni, Donald Trump&rsquo;s nominee to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Here&rsquo;s another email, with additional background: &ldquo;It is a painting <a href="https://www.car-model-kit.com/plastic-modelkit-lod-05098-battleship-bismarck-1-700" target="_blank" rel="noopener">that was used on a Revell model kit box in 2010</a>. The artist is a well known photographer and warship painter called Danijel Frka. There are hundreds of these types of paintings that Mr. Frka has made and to single the one that Antoni has as proof of Nazi leanings is pretty far-fetched. I think this is just a person on a hair-trigger looking for any reason to be outraged!
&ldquo;There is nothing <a href="https://www.dalmatia.hr/daniel-frka/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in the artist's bio</a> that would indicate him as a go-to for Nazi propaganda. I'd be surprised if Mr. Antoni even knows what ship it is on his wall!
&ldquo;Thanks for the laugh!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Now for some random praise: &ldquo;Just a note to say I enjoyed today's five-item update. This is a great idea. which I appreciate. Keep it up!&rdquo;
This individual sounds like a new reader, who also chimed in after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/its-trumps-war-now" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a>. Thank you, sir! Every newcomer would do well to give <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/who-we-are-and-what-were-all-about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our &ldquo;Who We Are and What We&rsquo;re All About&rdquo; edition</a> a look, too.
Meanwhile, after Emily took the helm for last Thursday&rsquo;s and Friday&rsquo;s editions, we heard from another reader: &ldquo;Emily &mdash; Love your nonpartisan commentary and delivery, thank you.&rdquo;
Gee, was that a subtle swipe at me?
For the record, I also take a strictly nonpartisan approach: I fear and detest everyone who exercises political power.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;About a week or two ago, I stopped getting ALL emails from Paradigm Press,&rdquo; a reader writes. &ldquo;Then they showed up in my spam review at the end of the day. I released them manually for about a week, expecting the issue to clear.
&ldquo;Then I went into Microsoft Defender to figure out how to whitelist your sending emails, and have done so for three days now, each morning. So far it&rsquo;s made no difference. They still get caught, and I still have to release them manually.
&ldquo;I have to think I&rsquo;m not the only one. Please have your IT team look into this. It&rsquo;s worth the trouble to be able to read them, but I have to think that&rsquo;s not the case for everyone.
&ldquo;Keep up the great work!&rdquo;
Dave responds: Indeed you are not the only one. We&rsquo;ve been on the case for several days.
It&rsquo;s a Microsoft issue. Thus it affects readers with Hotmail or MSN accounts as well as people with corporate Outlook accounts. We&rsquo;re working with Microsoft to remedy the situation as soon as possible.
We thank you for your patience. In the meantime, you can always keep up with these daily missives at <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Paradigm Pressroom website</a>.
And very soon you&rsquo;ll be able to keep up with all your Paradigm content &mdash; both the free stuff and your paid subscriptions &mdash; via the snazzy new Paradigm Press app, available through both Apple and Google. Stay tuned&hellip;

trump excavator

Trump's Billion-Dollar Energy Bet 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Nixon Shock
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The plan to upend the global economic order wasn&rsquo;t hatched on Aug. 15, 1971, but in the days leading up to it. President Nixon gathered his top economic team in a secretive weekend summit at Camp David starting on the afternoon of Aug. 13.
Over those intense days &mdash; 54 years ago &mdash; power brokers including Treasury Secretary John Connally, Federal Reserve chair Arthur Burns and then-Treasury Undersecretary Paul Volcker debated the future of the gold standard and the dollar.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5Hgbylqjc3s1MbH95aXkZz/217b9341b996880e1e6cbe9bf89d3d1b/Nixon.png" alt="Nixon" width="540px" />

Photo courtesy: federalreservehistory.org President Richard Nixon at Camp David with Fed Chair Arthur Burns (far left) and Treasury Secretary John Connally (second from left) in August 1971
Burns cautioned against closing the gold window, but the majority, swayed especially by Connally, pushed for action. Nixon decided to suspend the dollar&rsquo;s convertibility to gold <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2021/08/16/gold-and-great-nations/">temporarily</a> and impose a 10% surcharge on imports &mdash; moves supposed to protect the U.S. economy and wrest control from currency speculators.
Living up to its &ldquo;Nixon Shock&rdquo; moniker, not even key officials from the State Department were privy to the secret severing of the dollar&rsquo;s tie to gold. Meanwhile, Nixon timed his big speech to catch the Sunday night TV audience, ensuring maximum shock would ripple through a world wholly unprepared for the dawning of a new money era.
Over the 54 years since? Inflation has averaged around 3.9% annually, resulting in prices rising more than sixfold. What cost $2,500 in 1971, for example, would cost over $19,000 in 2025 &mdash; reflecting substantial long-term inflation pressure not seen before that period.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Three Reasons to Stay the Course
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Understanding this pivotal moment in history helps explain why gold remains a vital asset today &mdash; especially as Paradigm editor Sean Ring highlights three compelling reasons to hold onto gold. 
First, the market trend for gold remains powerfully bullish. Sean points out gold is in a &ldquo;full-throttle, textbook&rdquo; uptrend with clear technical signals like a golden cross &mdash; when the 50-day moving average is well above the 200-day. He explains that price pullbacks have been brief and met with aggressive buying, proving the trend isn&rsquo;t over.
Selling now, Sean warns, is like getting off a climbing train halfway because you think the view can&rsquo;t get any better. But history shows gold&rsquo;s biggest gains often come after investors feel the gold market has peaked.
Second, Sean emphasizes the heavy tax consequences of selling. In the U.S., physical gold is taxed as a collectible at rates up to 28%, far above standard stock capital gains taxes. Add to that lower sale prices due to dealer markups and selling gold cuts deeply into your profits. Sean calls it &ldquo;financial lunacy&rdquo; to sell now, face a steep tax bill and miss out on future gains.
Last, Sean reminds that gold&rsquo;s primary role is as a financial insurance policy amid rising systemic risks. It is immune to earnings seasons or fiscal policy and has preserved value through centuries of crises.
With central banks buying gold aggressively, historic debt levels, growing geopolitical tensions and challenges to the dollar&rsquo;s reserve status, these structural forces driving gold higher remain very much in play. Selling now means sacrificing protection in an increasingly unstable world.
Sean&rsquo;s key takeaway: &ldquo;If you&rsquo;re holding gold right now, you&rsquo;re in a sweet spot: The chart looks great, the fundamentals are supportive and the alternative assets are far less appealing.&rdquo;
All told, gold&rsquo;s potential for dramatic gains remains very much alive. As Paradigm&rsquo;s macro authority Jim Rickards reminds: &ldquo;From 1971 to 1980, the price of gold soared over 2,100%. A replay today would put the price of gold at $75,000 per ounce.&rdquo;

[High-Priority: It&rsquo;s not every day a Paradigm VP hops on a plane to middle-of-nowhere western Utah.
But when this much money is at stake &mdash; $150 trillion &mdash; it&rsquo;s worth investigating on-site. And that&rsquo;s exactly what VP of Research Aaron Gentzler just did.
What he found in Utah confirms a Phase II boom of Jim Rickards&rsquo; &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; thesis that President Trump is unleashing now.
Historically, Phase II has been the most lucrative investing window across resource booms. Gains that could be 10X... 20X... even 100X bigger than what we&rsquo;ve seen from mining stocks so far this year.
Within a span of just three years, in fact, investors could&rsquo;ve seen rare peak returns of 7,500%... 20,183%... and you won&rsquo;t believe this&hellip; 140,000%.
That is not a typo. It&rsquo;s a genuine financial opportunity that was created by this rare Phase II pattern. And the story Aaron&rsquo;s investigating in Utah could be even bigger than Jim Rickards&rsquo; original prediction.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2469058">Check it out for yourself right here.]</a>

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Russell 2000: &ldquo;Negative Selection Bias&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Russell 2000, the bellwether index for small-cap stocks, just made headlines by leaping 4.8% this week. That&rsquo;s unusual for what Paradigm&rsquo;s trading pro Enrique Abeyta calls &ldquo;some of the worst stocks on Wall Street.&rdquo;
About 40% of Russell 2000 companies, in fact, lose money, compared with just 6% of S&amp;P 500 companies. And over the last decade, small caps have persistently lagged the broader market &mdash; no sugarcoating it: &ldquo;Small caps suck,&rdquo; Enrique quips.
However, this week&rsquo;s sudden surge prompts an important question: Could we be witnessing the beginning of a significant upside shift?
First, the Russell 2000 represents the smallest two-thirds of the Russell 3000, which covers the biggest U.S.-listed stocks. Despite comprising 2,000 companies, the total market cap of the entire Russell 2000 &mdash; less than $3 trillion &mdash; is less than the market cap of some individual companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple.
There&rsquo;s also a catch: According to Enrique, the Russell 2000 is set up with &ldquo;negative selection bias.&rdquo; For instance, once a company becomes too successful, it grows out of the index into the larger-cap Russell 1000.
Translation?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Russell 2000 is built to lose its winners and keep the weaker hands. As Enrique puts it, these stocks are &ldquo;the small ships in the economic ocean&rdquo; &mdash; easily swayed by storms like recessions, interest-rate shocks or swings in commodity prices.
This structural weakness explains why the index has badly underperformed. In the past 15 years, the S&amp;P 500 has soared 500%, while the Russell 2000&rsquo;s gain is just 265%. That&rsquo;s before considering nearly half the index is unprofitable. Yet despite all this, small caps punched higher this week.
So what&rsquo;s giving small caps a lift now? Enrique says hopes for interest rate cuts. Small companies are especially sensitive to rates &mdash; their weaker balance sheets and tighter access to capital make them big beneficiaries of cheaper borrowing costs.
&ldquo;Lower rates could help them tremendously,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;Investors are getting excited about the possibility that the underperformance in small caps may finally reverse.
&ldquo;If the Fed cuts rates into a stable, growing economy, then the market&rsquo;s weakest stocks could become the fastest movers.
&ldquo;And when that shift happens,&rdquo; he concludes, &ldquo;you&rsquo;ll want to be ready for it.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Taking a look at stocks today, the Nasdaq (-0.50%) and S&amp;P 500 (-0.30%) are taking a breather at 21,590 and 6,445 respectively. In sympathy, the Russell 2000 is down about 0.70%. But the Big Board&rsquo;s up 0.20% to 45,000.
Turning to commodities, oil is down 1.20% to $63.20 for a barrel of WTI. Precious metals? The price of gold&rsquo;s up 0.15% to $3,388 per ounce. Silver, moving in the opposite direction, is down 0.15% to $38.
As for the crypto market, Bitcoin&rsquo;s lost 1%, just hanging onto $117K, while Ethereum is down 3.60% to $4,395.
And we have a couple economic numbers to report:
U.S. retail sales increased 0.5% in July, slightly underperforming economists&rsquo; expectations, but marking the second-straight monthly gain after a spring slowdown. The rise was driven largely by purchases of automobiles and home furnishings, reflecting some pre-tariff spending on big-ticket items.
According to the Federal Reserve, U.S. industrial production edged down 0.1% last month, slipping after a revised 0.4% gain in June.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Big Tech&rsquo;s Power Grab
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Big Tech&rsquo;s AI data centers consume staggering amounts of electricity, fueling a rapid buildout of power plants and transmission lines.
If you&rsquo;re a regular 5 Bullets reader, you know we&rsquo;ve been tracking this story since Paradigm&rsquo;s science‑and‑tech expert Ray Blanco first flagged the AI-energy connection in January 2024. Managing editor Dave Gonigam has also warned for three summers about the fragility of America&rsquo;s power grid.
Here&rsquo;s the latest twist: Much of today&rsquo;s tension comes from outdated cost‑sharing models that spread transmission expenses across the board, without factoring in the enormous electricity demands of just a handful of corporate customers.
Research shows that even when utilities set special rates for data centers, those fees still don&rsquo;t fully cover the cost of building new power plants &mdash; effectively forcing everyday households and small businesses to subsidize Big Tech&rsquo;s energy appetite.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />That means regular Americans and local companies are footing a disproportionate share of the bill.
Some states are starting to push back. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and other leaders have challenged steep price hikes from PJM Interconnection &mdash; the regional grid operator for much of the mid‑Atlantic &mdash; warning about unjustified costs hitting consumers.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2B7DctjhwhpKNNtstxVGkt/5def5c8de00c4302ce258d21ffed1b65/WallStreetApes.png" alt="Wall Street Apes" width="540px" />
In fact, a 2024 report found that data center demand accounted for 70% of the region&rsquo;s electricity price increases last year, totaling $9.3 billion.
About a dozen states are now moving to shield ratepayers from carrying the full load. Oregon, one of the nation&rsquo;s top data center hubs, passed a law in June 2025 directing regulators to set new, presumably higher, electricity rates just for these massive facilities.
This, as Oregon residents have endured electric bills surging up to 50% in four years &mdash; while utility disconnections hit record highs.
Other proposals under consideration include requiring data centers to source their own power, a step that could ease the strain on the grid and place the cost burden squarely on the tech giants themselves.
Still, given how aggressively states compete to lure data centers, it&rsquo;s unclear whether policymakers will have the resolve to make Big Tech pay for the expensive transmission upgrades it drives &mdash; without sticking average Americans with the tab.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Working Hard at Hardly Working
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the heart of China, Shui Zhou clocks in at a faux office every morning &mdash; he&rsquo;s not really employed, but his days are packed. From 9 a.m. until late into the evening, Zhou sips tea, laughs with &ldquo;colleagues&rdquo; and occasionally sends staged photos home so his parents feel at ease.
Zhou now pays about 30 yuan ($4.20) daily to the Pretend To Work Company in order to keep up appearances of gainful employment.
This isn&rsquo;t some elaborate hoax, but a reality for thousands of young professionals priced out of China&rsquo;s shrinking job market. Indeed, it&rsquo;s a curious fix for a serious problem&hellip;
With youth unemployment stubbornly above 14% in 2025, China&rsquo;s job-seeking Gen Z are shelling out for a desk, WiFi, snacks and the illusion of success.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/ZgLpGP4KGGLr1Lqh8GINV/ea5d516ac422a570b5ccbdd50a2c4917/PretendWork.png" alt="pretend to work" width="400px" />

Courtesy: LinkedIn I suppose no one&rsquo;s getting business cards printed&hellip;
For others, like recent graduate Xiaowen Tang, the facade goes a step further: staged &ldquo;work&rdquo; photos sent to universities count as proof of internships required for graduation.
Meanwhile, the owner of the faux office, having once faced business failure himself, calls it &ldquo;the dignity of not being a useless person.&rdquo;
Some might call it a social experiment; others see symptoms of a broader economic malaise. Whatever the case, pretend-to-work companies are booming in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, echoing the quiet frustration of a generation caught in limbo.
Sure, these offices might run on delusion, but they&rsquo;re serving up something real: a sense of community that keeps everyone coming back.
Here&rsquo;s the million-yuan question: Does &ldquo;pretending to work&rdquo; count as work experience?
Take care, reader! Don&rsquo;t work too hard this weekend&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

gold

Paradigm editor Sean Ring highlights three compelling reasons to hold onto gold. 

Don’t Sell Your Gold Now! 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Data Center Boom (or Bubble?)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If you want to understand the magnitude &mdash; and potential peril &mdash; of the current artificial intelligence (AI) boom, look beyond the headlines and into the humming aisles of the world&rsquo;s largest data centers.
&ldquo;Technology infrastructure providers have become the unsung heroes as the AI revolution accelerates,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s trading pro Enrique Abeyta. Their chips and computing platforms power everything from language models to next-gen data centers.
Without these companies, he argues, &ldquo;The software breakthroughs capturing headlines wouldn&rsquo;t be possible.&rdquo; In many ways, Enrique suggests, this new AI infrastructure &ldquo;is to AI what steel and railroads were to the Industrial Age.&rdquo;
But history warns that every infrastructure boom, no matter how highflying, can end in a sobering bust. &ldquo;The railroad boom of the 19th century collapsed after infrastructure buildout &mdash; fueled by speculative capital and greed &mdash; surged ahead of demand and hit a painful wall,&rdquo; he says.
He draws a vivid link to the present: &ldquo;We are facing a similar situation in the global race to build out AI.&rdquo; Tech giants are locked in an arms race, spending over $350 billion this year alone on data centers, chips and energy infrastructure.
Nowhere is this race more apparent than Nvidia. Once a niche graphics chip supplier, Nvidia is &ldquo;the crown jewel of the AI revolution, powering nearly every major data center buildout with its high-performance GPUs.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Nvidia&rsquo;s wild ride from market darling to history&rsquo;s most valuable public company is legendary. But beneath this meteoric ascent, Enrique sees a bubble.
&ldquo;AI infrastructure spending is driven not by current revenue, but by fear of missing out. Cloud giants pour tens of billions into building AI capabilities, funded by investors overlooking costs for market leadership.&rdquo;
For Nvidia, Enrique warns, &ldquo;The capital outlays resemble the telecom fiber boom, where exuberance outpaced sustainable returns.&rdquo; If spending slows, as it will, &ldquo;Nvidia's revenue growth could quickly flatten or reverse.&rdquo;
The company&rsquo;s $4 trillion market cap assumes it will dominate unchallenged. Yet history shows early infrastructure players often enjoy spectacular gains &mdash; just before the bottom falls out.
&ldquo;Nvidia risks repeating that pattern,&rdquo; Enrique says, citing Cisco&rsquo;s collapse after the dot-com bubble. &ldquo;A slowdown in AI infrastructure buildouts, margin pressure or a shift to in-house chips could trigger a sharp correction.&rdquo;
He predicts Nvidia&rsquo;s share price could crash as early as 2026. It&rsquo;s important to note, in late 2024, Enrique previously forecast a $1 trillion market loss for Nvidia.
&ldquo;On the chart below, I circled the stock&rsquo;s price when I published my prediction,&rdquo; Enrique notes. &ldquo;By early April, Nvidia had officially lost $1 trillion in market cap.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4tb9iky1qDGmIGl36wozse/1b407d3cf55a4945c90cc23d3b4f5d18/Chart1.png" alt="Chart" width="540px" />
After a brief recovery, he cautions: &ldquo;The next fall will be steeper&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Nvidia&rsquo;s next drop could wipe out $2 trillion soon,&rdquo; says Enrique.
He calls this the &ldquo;capital cycle that will crush Nvidia,&rdquo; drawing on two centuries of crises in railroads, electricity, radio and the internet.
&ldquo;Every time, companies invest too much in the short term. Capacity will be used eventually, but after buildout, there&rsquo;s too much supply for demand.&rdquo;
The result: &ldquo;A period of weakness&hellip; even the best equipment, like Nvidia&rsquo;s chips, will see demand crater.&rdquo;
What&rsquo;s an investor to do? Enrique is clear: &ldquo;If you own Nvidia shares, take profits now or hedge. Now is the moment to protect gains and prepare for downside. The risk is too big to ignore.&rdquo;
Paradigm&rsquo;s macro expert Jim Rickards agrees, but sees things from a different angle.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Jim warns much of the AI hype is based on the elusive promise of artificial general intelligence (AGI) &mdash; a goal he believes may never be achieved. 
&ldquo;AGI is unlikely because it requires abductive logic &mdash; that humans have but computers can&rsquo;t program.&rdquo;
If that hope collapses, Jim says: &ldquo;Much investment will be written off. That could come sooner than expected and cause the greatest stock market collapse ever.&rdquo;
Beyond financial risk, Jim highlights the boom&rsquo;s physical toll: &ldquo;AI data centers consume huge electricity, exceeding some U.S. states.&rdquo;
He foresees an energy crisis that could cripple technology advancement and national security, worsened by automation and job losses.
The upshot: While the AI boom promises dazzling tech and returns, history warns a reckoning looms.
As Enrique and Jim argue, investors must approach this revolution with clear-eyed skepticism as well as humility. Because if history is any guide, what goes up &mdash; especially at the heart of a hyped buildout &mdash; will inevitably come down.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />GM&rsquo;s Innovation Flip-Flop
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;General Motors is really good at one thing. Unfortunately, it&rsquo;s not innovation, engineering or visionary leadership,&rdquo; says Paradigm editor Davis Wilson at The Million Mission e-letter.
No, GM&rsquo;s specialty is spending &ldquo;billions chasing the &lsquo;next big thing&rsquo;&hellip; only to slam on the brakes, reverse course and start all over again years later from behind,&rdquo; Davis continues.
Just a few years ago, for instance, GM promised an all-electric lineup by 2035 &mdash; &ldquo;big talk,&rdquo; Davis notes. Yet with production delays, &ldquo;slowing sales and infrastructure challenges,&rdquo; the company quietly abandoned these ambitions.
But not after investing &ldquo;billions in supply chains, R&amp;D and retooling factories only to slam the brakes at the first bump&hellip; Doesn&rsquo;t exactly scream visionary leadership,&rdquo; he quips.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/dXIRM96VzK61ETNEJNo2Z/bff046a27db1347dc745293c7aafc4c2/Orion.png" alt="orion" width="540px" />

Courtesy: Oakland County Times Orion Township, Michigan
Then came the Cruise debacle, when &ldquo;a high-profile incident in San Francisco&rdquo; led GM to shutter its robotaxi program, costing the company nine executives and a CEO.
Their most recent flip-flop? After scrapping its robotaxi venture amid &ldquo;regulatory crackdowns, executive firings and public embarrassment,&rdquo; GM is trying to jump back into autonomous vehicles (AVs).
Now GM is attempting &ldquo;to lure back former Cruise employees&rdquo; and push for &ldquo;hands-free, eyes-free driving,&rdquo; led by Sterling Anderson, ex-Tesla Autopilot chief.
Still, GM&rsquo;s rivals (Tesla, Waymo, Zoox, Baidu) already have &ldquo;a multiyear head start and active deployments.&rdquo;
&ldquo;This is becoming GM&rsquo;s playbook: Make a big, expensive innovation push. Reverse course when things get tough. Lose momentum and market share. Announce a &lsquo;new&rsquo; push years later (starting from behind),&rdquo; Davis writes.
Ultimately, he warns: &ldquo;Beware companies that chase buzzy industries primarily for stock-market glory&hellip; Consistent vision, deep execution and the patience to see innovation through tough times &mdash; those are the real keys to leadership.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Inflation at the wholesale level is defying expectations (not in a good way). The Producer Price Index (PPI) leapt 0.9% in July versus the consensus 0.2%. Year-over-year, wholesale inflation is now running at 3.3%... Will this evaporate the Fed&rsquo;s will to cut rates come September? 
The market is paring its losses after slumping hard &mdash; post PPI data. Notwithstanding, the three major stock indexes are all in the red. The Dow&rsquo;s hit hardest, down 0.25% to 44,780. At the same time, the S&amp;P 500 is down 0.10% to 6,450 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 0.05% to 21,695.
Commodities? Oil is up 1.40% to $63.50 for a barrel of WTI. As for precious metals, gold is down 0.70% to $3,385.80 per ounce, and silver is down 1.50% to $38.
When it comes to the crypto market &mdash; that never sleeps &mdash; Bitcoin (-3.45%) and Ethereum (-2.70%) are hanging out at $118,240 and $4,590 respectively.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Lost in Translation: &ldquo;Bailout&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Four years after Evergrande&rsquo;s financial collapse shook China&rsquo;s property market, the company faces a symbolic milestone: its delisting from the Hong Kong stock exchange on Aug. 25, 2025. 
This event marks the official end of the trading life of what was once China&rsquo;s second-largest property developer, a towering figure in the country&rsquo;s real estate boom and subsequent bust.
<a href="https://5minforecast.com/2021/09/01/chinas-lehman-moment-looms/">Evergrande&rsquo;s downfall</a> began in 2021, when the company disclosed it could not meet its vast debt obligations.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2yn4jWp1j541el1TEUrM1f/0ad6e2809dc854b61f889ef495469a13/Julia.png" alt="julia tweet" width="540px" />
By January 2024, a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande&rsquo;s liquidation after rejecting its restructuring plans, revealing a staggering debt load over $300 billion owed to banks, bondholders and suppliers.
Trading in Evergrande&rsquo;s shares has since been suspended, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange canceling its listing after 18 months of inactivity in July 2025. Evergrande confirmed it would not contest the decision, leaving shareholders with certificates that hold no tradable value going forward.
Meanwhile, the liquidation process has been a slow, complex affair. Liquidators have taken control of more than 100 group companies, valuing assets collectively around $3.5 billion as of early 2024.
To date, only about $255 million worth of assets have been sold, reflecting the difficult job of realizing value amid tangled ownership structures.
But debt claims submitted far exceed initial estimates, reaching $45 billion by mid-2025 with the total likely still rising.
[A pivotal aspect of this saga focuses on Evergrande&rsquo;s founder, Hui Ka Yan. Hui, who controls about 60% of the company, refuses to disclose his assets to creditors.
At a court hearing in September, however, liquidators aim to compel Hui to reveal his holdings. The outcome could set a precedent for other insolvent Chinese developers and the scrutiny their owners may face.]
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Evergrande&rsquo;s collapse reflects broader challenges in China&rsquo;s real estate sector.
Despite government efforts, the property market remains mired in a deep slump, with investment declining further in 2025 and little sign of a stimulus to revive growth.
Not to mention the political and economic environment under President Xi Jinping has shifted priorities away from bailout-style rescues, emphasizing party control and stability over market intervention.
This approach contrasts sharply with Western notions of &ldquo;too big to fail,&rdquo; underscoring a new paradigm where loyalty to the Communist Party trumps traditional capitalist safeguards.
The key takeaway from Evergrande&rsquo;s prolonged demise is a stark signal that China&rsquo;s property crisis is far from over. The delisting and slow asset recovery illustrate a fractured sector facing long-term pain, with profound implications for investors, homeowners and the economy as a whole.
This story continues to unfold, but Evergrande&rsquo;s downfall stands as a cautionary tale of debt excess and the perils of state capitalism in one of the world&rsquo;s largest economies.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Last Days of Dial-Up
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />AOL&rsquo;s dial-up internet, once the gateway for millions venturing online for the first time, is officially coming to an end on Sept. 30, 2025.
In its heyday, AOL made the internet accessible to everyday families, introducing its famous &ldquo;You&rsquo;ve got mail&rdquo; catchphrase that still resonates in pop culture.
And who can forget the chorus of beeps and static that defined the early web experience? Or the frustration of being booted offline when someone picked up the landline?
Launched in the late 1980s as America Online, AOL reached dazzling heights &mdash; with its market cap soaring to over $200 billion by the turn of the millennium.
The company, in fact, dominated the internet landscape, connecting over 20 million users at its peak and even merging with media giant Time Warner in a colossal (but, ultimately, disastrous) deal.
The march of progress, however, was relentless: Broadband and wireless networks quickly eclipsed dial-up&rsquo;s slow, quirky connection.
Yet even as technology raced forward, a small, determined group held on. As recently as 2023, around 163,000 U.S. households were still using dial-up as their sole online access, often in rural or underserved regions.
Now as AOL shutters its dial-up service, it marks not just the end of a technology, but the closing of a chapter in internet history.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />HODL
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I thought you&rsquo;d appreciate this tweet,&rdquo; a reader writes.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6N60AJDRRrtAdNqAJUqPMs/875e2ceaa6f0566830ad8d89621049ff/Carl-blur.png" alt="carl tweet" width="540px" />
Sad.
Hang in there, reader&hellip; We&rsquo;ll be back with another 5 Bullets tomorrow.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Screenshot 2025-08-14 at 1.04.28 PM

History warns that every infrastructure boom, no matter how highflying, can end in a sobering bust.

Caveat Emptor

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />It&rsquo;s Trump&rsquo;s War Now
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Trump may understand the art of the deal, but he does not understand the art of war,&rdquo; Jim Rickards wrote Monday to his Strategic Intelligence subscribers. &ldquo;Those are two quite different skills.&rdquo;
We&rsquo;re about 48 hours away from a summit in Alaska between Trump and Russia&rsquo;s Vladimir Putin.
Apart from the Russia-Ukraine war, this meeting has huge implications for global trade and energy. We&rsquo;ll get to that soon enough &mdash; but first, it&rsquo;s necessary to get a handle on the war.
In recent weeks, &ldquo;Trump has flip-flopped between his support for Ukraine and his positive remarks about Russia and Putin,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;But lately he has come down firmly on the side of Ukraine and the neo-Nazis around President Zelenskyy.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;This means the war in Ukraine is now Trump&rsquo;s war,&rdquo; says Jim &mdash; underscoring a warning he issued as soon as Trump returned to office in January.
&ldquo;Trump has promised more weapons to Ukraine and legislation is now moving to provide an additional $50 billion in aid.
&ldquo;At the same time, Trump gave Putin an ultimatum to accept an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine, which Russia naturally rejected. After all, Russia is winning the war decisively and none of the U.S. weapons systems provided so far has been effective. That won&rsquo;t change.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Where Trump has really gone off the rails is to threaten secondary sanctions on China and India,&rdquo; says Jim.
Last month, Trump gave Putin 50 days to agree to a ceasefire &mdash; and if Putin didn&rsquo;t comply, Trump said he&rsquo;d impose 100% tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy.
Then Trump shortened that timeline to 10 days &mdash; setting an effective deadline of Aug. 8, last Friday. On that day, Trump announced he&rsquo;d be meeting with Putin in a week&rsquo;s time.
So the deadline is on hold &mdash; while the threat remains.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Here&rsquo;s the problem &mdash; and why Trump doesn&rsquo;t have any leverage. &ldquo;India and China need the Russian oil to fuel their growing economies,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;They will continue to buy it.&rdquo;
Amid the threat of these 100% tariffs, the Trump administration continues to try to negotiate trade deals with India and China.
&ldquo;It should come as no surprise that the India and China tariff negotiations have not been going well,&rdquo; Jim wrote his Insider Indel readers this morning. &ldquo;Why should they agree to regular tariffs without knowing whether punitive tariffs are right around the corner? They won&rsquo;t.
&ldquo;China and India have various ways to respond. They could redirect their exports to friendly countries in Europe or Brazil and Australia. They could impose countervailing tariffs on U.S. exports to them, including on soybeans and High Tech. They could restrict U.S. investment in their growing economies. The list goes on.
&ldquo;What is certain is that the Trump tactic of secondary sanctions will hurt world trade and increase costs on many traded goods.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The biggest single cost will be a higher price for oil,&rdquo; Jim continues.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s because Russia, India and China will all incur costs in insurance markets and ghost tanker fleets needed to evade the sanctions in the first place. Who wins from higher oil prices? Russia. Who loses? U.S. consumers who pay higher prices for gas at the pump compared to a world without sanctions.&rdquo;
We&rsquo;ll be standing by to see what comes out of the summit on Friday &mdash; and whether Trump is able to resist the advice of the Russia hawks on his team like retired Gen. Keith Kellogg and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Ironically, Jim says if Trump really wanted to hurt Moscow&hellip; he&rsquo;d work with U.S. producers and Saudi Arabia to flood the global market with oil, driving the price down and depriving Russia of oil revenue. Stay tuned&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Hey, Big Spender&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Like it or not, DOGE hasn&rsquo;t made a damn bit of difference to Uncle Sam&rsquo;s balance sheet &mdash; and tariff revenue is barely filling the gap.
Yesterday afternoon the U.S. Treasury issued its monthly statement of income and outflows. Federal spending totaled $629.6 billion in July &mdash; 9.7% higher than July of last year.
Meanwhile, revenue totaled $338.5 billion &mdash; up only 2.5% from a year earlier despite a 290% leap in tariff revenue.
The result was a monthly deficit of $291.1 billion &mdash; up from $243.7 billion in July 2024.
For the first six full months of the Trump 47 administration, February-July, federal spending totaled $3.37 trillion &mdash; up 3.2% from the same period a year earlier, when the Biden administration was spending like the proverbial drunken sailor to ensure its reelection. And the six-month deficit of $880 billion is 1.7% higher than the same period in 2024.
The growth of the government&rsquo;s budget gap translates directly to rising long-term interest rates: Bond traders have less and less confidence that Uncle Sam will ever get his act together.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury note sits at 4.26% this morning &mdash; compared with 3.82% a year ago. And those higher rates only make the debt spiral worse&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But for now, no worries for the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq are reaching higher into record territory today &mdash; and the Dow might catch up soon.
At last check, the S&amp;P 500 is up 13 points to 6,458&hellip; while the Nasdaq is up 31 points to 21,712.
The big mover is the Dow &mdash; up three-quarters of a percent to 44,794 and a little over 200 points away from its record close on July 23.
As for nondollar assets, gold is moribund at $3,353 but silver is on a tear &mdash; up over 50 cents to $38.39. Bitcoin is back over $121,000 &mdash; perhaps coiling for another run at a record.
Oil has sunk nearly a buck after the Energy Department&rsquo;s weekly inventory numbers &mdash; now $62.27, the lowest since early June.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" /> Making Videos: Almost as Easy as Sending a Text
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Remember when making a decent video meant dropping thousands of dollars? Those days are gone,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s AI authority James Altucher.
I remember. When I was breaking into the TV news business nearly 40 years ago, &ldquo;video editing&rdquo; was done strictly on analog tape. It entailed a huge playback deck&hellip; a huge recording deck&hellip; a controller with buttons and jog/shuttle dials&hellip; and a couple of 13-inch tube TVs to monitor what you were doing.
Oh, and a rat&rsquo;s nest of cables connecting it all.
Fast-forward to this summer: &ldquo;In June,&rdquo; James tells us, &ldquo;a Los Angeles dentist with zero filmmaking experience created a video that looked as good as a Super Bowl ad. The concept was ridiculous but brilliant.
&ldquo;A gorilla goes skydiving while drinking beer. He crashes on landing, breaking his two front teeth. Desperate for help before his date that night, he visits a Hollywood dentist who fixes his smile in under an hour.
&ldquo;The ad cost less than $50 to make. It generated millions of views and brought in new patients worth tens of thousands of dollars.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s just one example: &ldquo;With AI video now making it possible for anyone to create high-quality content, executives at the big movie studios are scrambling to figure out how they stay relevant.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The secret behind this revolution is Google's Veo 3,&rdquo; says James &mdash; &ldquo;released in May and already used to create more than 40 million videos in just 12 weeks.
&ldquo;It was the first tool on the market to generate realistic videos complete with synchronized sound effects and dialogue.&rdquo;
No, it&rsquo;s not free. You need a Google AI Pro subscription &mdash; $20 a month, although sometimes you can score a one-month free trial.
James is always on alert for interesting side hustles his readers can pursue &mdash; and AI-generated videos are definitely one of them.
&ldquo;Small businesses are desperate for affordable video content,&rdquo; he wrote his Inner Circle Elite readers on Monday. &ldquo;They need ads for social media, their websites and local TV. Some creators are charging $500&ndash;1,000 per AI-generated video that would have cost $5,000&ndash;10,000 to produce traditionally.
&ldquo;In one day, you can create a few good sample videos showcasing different styles and concepts for ads. Post them on social media with a conclusion about how they were made with AI and you can help other businesses do the same. Set up a Facebook or YouTube ad account targeting small-business owners and watch the interest pour in.&rdquo;
James&rsquo; bottom line: &ldquo;In five years, we'll look back at this moment as the turning point when creating professional-quality video became as accessible as sending a text message.&rdquo;
Of course, AI has both its upsides and downsides. It&rsquo;s the latter we move on to next&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Great Moments in the Law
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> AI in the courtroom is no longer a laughing matter.
More than two years ago, we treated you to a good chuckle when lawyers in a personal-injury case relied a little too much on ChatGPT to prepare their brief.
Their client was suing the Colombian airline Avianca in federal court because he smacked his knee on a metal serving cart during a flight to New York. The lawyers&rsquo; brief included several nonexistent decisions and quotations, invented by ChatGPT.
The judge dismissed the case and fined the plaintiff&rsquo;s lawyers $5,000. The case is so notorious it has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mata_v._Avianca,_Inc.">its own Wikipedia page</a>.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Now it appears that federal judges are relying on AI to render their decisions.
&ldquo;In recent weeks,&rdquo; reports The Washington Times, &ldquo;two federal judges have had to withdraw rulings because of fabricated information that experts said likely came from faulty artificial intelligence queries.&rdquo;
<ul>
<li>A Reagan appointee in Mississippi struck down a state law forbidding state agencies from sponsoring DEI programs. Three days later, he withdrew his opinion because the Times says it &ldquo;referred to nonexistent state law and parties and cited declarations that weren&rsquo;t part of the case&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Meanwhile, a Biden appointee in New Jersey withdrew an opinion that according to the Times &ldquo;misstated case outcomes and included fabricated quotes attributed to litigants and other court precedents.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
The judges haven&rsquo;t publicly explained their errors. But legal experts say it sure looks as if they relied on AI.
Wonderful as large language models like ChatGPT are, they have an unfortunate tendency to &ldquo;hallucinate&rdquo; as techie types say &mdash; or to make **** up as you and I would say.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;This should be thoroughly investigated,&rdquo; says our Jim Rickards, who spent decades as a Wall Street lawyer. &ldquo;The judges should be reprimanded and possibly subject to more serious discipline if it turns out they were using GPT to do legal research.
&ldquo;Even if these mistakes were the work of law clerks, those judges should have exercised greater oversight, and the clerks should be fired.
&ldquo;GPT is powerful and useful, but users must understand the flaws and limitations. Letting GPT run wild in the classroom or the courtroom is a recipe for disaster.&rdquo;
Or anywhere else. Your editor prepared today&rsquo;s write-up about the monthly Treasury statement with help from the Perplexity AI engine &mdash; way less time-consuming than tracking down six months of figures and plugging them into a spreadsheet.
Perplexity initially served up numbers I knew couldn&rsquo;t possibly be right. &ldquo;Thanks for catching the error!&rdquo; it told me chirpily before correcting itself.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Sink the Antoni!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> A reader writes to take issue with my tentative assessment of E.J. Antoni &mdash; Trump&rsquo;s nominee to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics &mdash; as a straight shooter.
&ldquo;Maybe he is. But he also has a wall-sized multipanel print of the famous Nazi warship the Bismarck plastered across his office.&rdquo;
The reader supplied several screengrabs like this one to back up his case.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1MqMGgCzK5FI1Wojm3vrHN/7cbc35bf7b960fc1e4815302e7cf0e13/MainStMatt.png" alt="main st matt" width="540px" />
&ldquo;This is Trump's MO. Loyalty over ethics. This man will say whatever Trump wants him to say.
&ldquo;So no, I cannot agree with your assessment of his character. No one involved with the Heritage Foundation carries any credence in my book. Seems like a great choice if the plan is to lie and push more authoritarian power grabs forth, as we are witnessing in D.C. right now.&rdquo;
Dave responds: No one wants to remember, but Heritage is the policy shop that dreamed up the &ldquo;individual mandate&rdquo; to buy health insurance &mdash; which became the cornerstone of Obamacare.
Anyway, I did qualify my straight-shooter statement by saying, &ldquo;on the few occasions I&rsquo;ve encountered Antoni&rsquo;s posts on social media&hellip;&rdquo;
Antoni is making noises now about suspending the monthly jobs report because he says the data is unreliable &mdash; running instead with quarterly data he describes as &ldquo;more accurate, though less timely.&rdquo;
Again, my familiarity with Antoni is limited. But it&rsquo;s worth noting many conservative policy wonks are appalled at his nomination, such as Jessica Riedl of the Manhattan Institute &mdash; not exactly a hotbed of progressivism&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6zWfVnexa4t2OknRgzlSmv/ab896e5f082e1501798282c26f49a8f6/Jessica.png" alt="jessica tweet" width="540px" />
As for the Bismarck&hellip; who knows what Antoni&rsquo;s motivation is. If he&rsquo;s celebrating Nazi technology or warfighting skill &mdash; well, he should study up a bit more.
The Bismarck met its demise at the hands of the Royal Navy only nine months after commissioning &mdash; an event celebrated in the 1960 movie Sink the Bismarck!
(No, I&rsquo;ve never watched, but I seem to remember it was a staple of Sunday afternoon TV when I was growing up&hellip;)
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Trump-Biden

“Trump may understand the art of the deal, but he does not understand the art of war,” Jim Rickards says. “Those are two quite different skills.”

It’s Trump’s War Now

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Good for Wall Street, Bad for Main Street
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;American companies are repurchasing their shares at a record pace,&rdquo; says The Wall Street Journal &mdash; &ldquo;boosting their balance sheets and fueling the U.S. stock rally.&rdquo;
So far in 2025, U.S. firms have announced $983.6 billion in stock buybacks &mdash; the strongest start to a year in data going back to 1982.
Leading the way are Magnificent 7 names like Apple and Google parent Alphabet &mdash; along with too-big-to-fail banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.
Recall that when companies buy back their shares, that has the effect of driving up earnings per share &mdash; which often translates to a higher share price.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Now let&rsquo;s step back from the headline news and talk about what a company can do when it&rsquo;s sitting on a boatload of cash.
Basically, the company has five choices&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Raise the dividend: That is, pay a higher percentage of the profits to shareholders every quarter. Or institute a dividend that didn&rsquo;t exist before</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Share buybacks: See above. Buybacks have the effect of shrinking the overall share count; thus, every shareholder winds up owning a slightly bigger chunk of the company</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Mergers and acquisitions: Self-explanatory</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Capital expenditures, or capex: Build new factories, buy new equipment</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Research and development: Also self-explanatory.</li>
</ul>
The last two of those choices are all about growing the business for the future and bringing new wealth into existence.
The first two &mdash; and to a lesser extent, the middle one &mdash; do not create new wealth.
They&rsquo;re what a company does when management looks around for ways to invest in the future of their businesses &mdash; and doesn&rsquo;t see anything worthwhile.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />That&rsquo;s good for Wall Street, not so good for Main Street.
Not that the Journal&rsquo;s article puts it that bluntly. You have to read between the lines.
&ldquo;The confusion around trade has stalled many businesses&rsquo; investment plans,&rdquo; it says &mdash; &ldquo;making buybacks a more appealing use of incoming cash.&rdquo;
And then there&rsquo;s the case of Apple. Recall that Apple promised Donald Trump six months ago to invest $500 billion in the United States over the next four years &mdash; a promise that Apple upped to $600 billion a few days ago.
But so far, those promises haven&rsquo;t translated into actual groundbreakings for new factories, hirings of new engineering personnel, etc.
The more time that passes by, the more all of it seems like empty promises to placate the president.
On the other hand, the Journal tells us Apple has definitely set aside up to $100 billion for share buybacks.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />About Those Inflation Numbers&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A &ldquo;cooler than expected&rdquo; inflation number is enough to propel the stock market to all-time highs today.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics regaled us this morning with the July consumer price index. The official inflation rate is running 2.7% year-over-year &mdash; a hair less than the 2.8% expected by the average Wall Street economist.
But &ldquo;cooler than expected&rdquo; belies the fact that inflation has been stuck in a range for over a year now &mdash; 2.4% on the low side, 3% on the high side.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/declare-your-independence-from-inflation">As we like to warn you periodically</a>, once inflation sails beyond 5% &mdash; as it did in 2022 &mdash; it typically takes a decade to get back to &ldquo;normal&rdquo; 2% inflation.
The current number would be worse were it not for food prices holding steady this summer &mdash; and a 2.2% month-over-month drop in gasoline prices.
<blockquote>➢ For the record: Trump has nominated Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni as the new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If approved by the Senate, he&rsquo;d replace Erika McEntarfer, who Trump fired earlier this month after a weak job number for July. On the few occasions I&rsquo;ve encountered Antoni&rsquo;s posts on social media, he&rsquo;s generally struck me as a straight shooter.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Anyway, with the inflation number running &ldquo;cooler than expected,&rdquo; Wall Street is rallying on the assumption the Federal Reserve will definitely cut short-term interest rates next month.
In the futures markets, traders are pricing in a 94% probability of a cut at the next Fed meeting&hellip; and a 50-50 shot at two more cuts before the end of the year.
With that, the S&amp;P 500 has powered 0.9% higher on the day, easily vaulting into record territory at 6,431. The Dow and the Nasdaq are both up a little over 1%.
Gold is treading water after yesterday&rsquo;s beatdown, the bid now $3,345. For the record, Trump said yesterday there would be no tariffs on gold imports after all &mdash; three days after gold tariffs were announced by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Life comes at you fast&hellip;
Elsewhere, crude is down 1% to $63.28. Bitcoin&rsquo;s latest run for a record has come up short; the flagship crypto is back below $120,000.
After we hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on yesterday&rsquo;s edition, Trump announced another 90-day pause on his tariff regime targeting China &mdash; buying still more time for trade negotiations. For the time being, U.S. imports from China will remain subject to a 30% levy while U.S. exports to China will be taxed by Beijing at 10%.
<blockquote>➢ This new executive order effectively fulfills the forecast that three of Paradigm&rsquo;s top editors made last week during our All-In Summit &mdash; a reset to U.S.-China economic relations that will unleash phenomenal new profit opportunities. If you&rsquo;re a Paradigm Mastermind Group subscriber, you won&rsquo;t want to miss a follow-up briefing tomorrow with Jim Rickards, James Altucher and Enrique Abeyta. For details, check your inbox for an email that should have arrived shortly after noon Eastern Time.</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Sunny Vibe In Small-Business America
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The mood on Main Street is the best since February &mdash; judging by the Small Business Optimism index put out each month by the National Federation of Independent Business.
The July number clocks in at 100.3 &mdash; the first over-100 reading in five months and up meaningfully from 95.8 two months earlier.
&ldquo;While uncertainty is still high,&rdquo; says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg, &ldquo;the next six months will hopefully offer business owners more clarity, especially as owners see the results of Congress making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent and the final shape of trade policy.&rdquo;
On the part of the survey asking small-business owners to identify their single-most important problem, &ldquo;quality of labor&rdquo; is back in first place; 21% of respondents say good help is hard to find.
After passage of the &ldquo;Big Beautiful Bill,&rdquo; taxes have retreated to 17%, with inflation and poor sales tied for third place at 11%.
The respectable headline number notwithstanding, it&rsquo;s problematic that the &ldquo;poor sales&rdquo; figure keeps climbing &mdash; and is now the highest since February 2021.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In light of today&rsquo;s inflation numbers&hellip;
The following meme might be a commentary on the rise of &ldquo;tech bros&rdquo;... but it might also be a reminder that your dollars don&rsquo;t go nearly as far these days as they used to&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4BuWiM95hfcmrSG67HFwlD/4a9558f1560f015b81599ffdceb48fca/office.png" alt="office" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Trump&rsquo;s Silicon Valley Shakedown
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/extortion-racket">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a> pulling apart the unprecedented arrangement between the Trump administration and chipmakers Nvidia and AMD, a reader writes&hellip;
&ldquo;At first, my reaction was the same; that this is a shakedown by the U.S. government.
&ldquo;Then I stepped back and had some questions: How much of their tech was paid for by the taxpayers in the first place, through research and development, etc.? Do these companies actually need to pay us back for that research?&rdquo;
Dave responds: The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 &mdash; pushed through by the Biden administration with bipartisan support &mdash; was a game-changer in that regard.
The law allocated $39 billion in subsidies for domestic semiconductor manufacturing and another $13 billion for semiconductor research and workforce training.
The biggest subsidy &mdash; nearly $8 billion &mdash; went to Intel, a fact that made Trump comfortable last week with demanding the resignation of Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan. (Trump changed his tune yesterday after the two met at the White House: &ldquo;His success and rise is an amazing story.&rdquo;)
That said, as far as we can tell Nvidia and AMD are not among the companies that have collected these subsidies.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />We haven&rsquo;t had occasion to bring it up until now &mdash; but for a real in-your-face shakedown by the Trump administration, look no further than CBS.
I don&rsquo;t really want to go to bat for a legacy media firm here; longtime readers know I got into financial publishing because I <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-the-financial-crisis-and-covid">became disillusioned</a> with traditional media. And for the sake of full disclosure, I spent about a year on CBS&rsquo; payroll during a two-decade career in broadcast news.
With those disclaimers out of the way&hellip;
As you might be aware, 60 Minutes ran an interview with Kamala Harris last fall &mdash; and Trump sued CBS.
Nico Perrino of the nonpartisan Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression sets the stage&hellip;
<blockquote>Bill Whitaker is interviewing her. Bill Whitaker asked her a question about Israel, and she gave a two&ndash;three-sentence answer. In its broadcast, 60 Minutes uses the first part of that answer and leaves out the second part. In a social [media] promotion, it uses the second part of the answer and leaves out the first part. But both parts of the answer essentially say the same thing, but it's Kamala Harris. She speaks often in word salads and 60 Minutes edited for length and clarity, as all news programs do.</blockquote>
But Trump&rsquo;s people saw an opening to sue CBS in the state of Texas, alleging that the edits amounted to consumer fraud.
Here&rsquo;s the thing: Speech is protected under the First Amendment &ldquo;so long as you're not defaming anyone &mdash; and no one's alleging defamation here,&rdquo; Perrino said in a recent interview with Glenn Greenwald.
&ldquo;This is just another way to go after &lsquo;misinformation&rsquo;. [Our organization] opposed it when the Biden administration did it. Now we're opposing it when the Trump administration does it and calls it something else, whether it's consumer protection, consumer fraud or news distortion. These are all words for the same thing, and they're all protected by the First Amendment.&rdquo;
Seen in that context, Trump&rsquo;s suit would have been laughed out of court.
So why didn&rsquo;t CBS parent Paramount Global fight it hammer and tong? Why did Paramount agree to settle last month for $16 million?
Because Paramount wanted to merge with a firm called Skydance Media. And because CBS owns a couple dozen local TV stations licensed by the Federal Communications Commission, Trump&rsquo;s FCC had the authority to approve or reject the deal.
It&rsquo;s this simple: If Paramount didn&rsquo;t settle, the Trump administration would have nixed the merger.
Days after the suit was settled, the merger won FCC approval The deal was consummated last week.
Whatever your opinion of CBS, we&rsquo;ve entered real banana-republic territory.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />We give Perrino the final word today: &ldquo;I'm not here to defend the media; all I'm here to do is to defend the First Amendment. 
&ldquo;If we are going to oppose using the tools of the federal government, or the most powerful person in the United States of America and the world, to prevent them from making an exception to the First Amendment for misinformation, then you need to stand against this, just like we needed to stand against it when the Biden administration alleged that social media companies were tweaking their algorithms to favor one thing or the other.
&ldquo;I mean, this is something that you need to stand against, regardless of who's in power.&rdquo;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

buybacks

So far in 2025, U.S. firms have announced $983.6 billion in stock buybacks — the strongest start to a year in data going back to 1982. 

Good for Wall Street, Bad for Main Street

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Mafia Tactics?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;This is literally just the U.S. government extorting private businesses. Capitalism is dead. The free market is dead,&rdquo; says a random comment on X.
The big business story of the day broke over the weekend: The Trump administration has granted export licenses to chipmakers Nvidia and AMD so they can sell their semiconductors in China &mdash; as long as they fork over 15% of the proceeds from those Chinese sales to the U.S. government.
&ldquo;The quid pro quo arrangement is unprecedented,&rdquo; says the Financial Times, which broke the story. &ldquo;According to export control experts, no U.S. company has ever agreed to pay a portion of their revenues to obtain export licenses.&rdquo;
&ldquo;It is unusual for companies to essentially pay for export licenses,&rdquo; adds The Wall Street Journal.
The criticism isn&rsquo;t coming just from free-market conservatives like the one we cited up top.
<blockquote>➢ The market reaction so far? NVDA and AMD shares opened the day flat compared with Friday&rsquo;s close. The big moves higher came in mid-July &mdash; when Trump first signaled he was open to letting the companies resume chip sales to China. No wonder: Global sales for both companies are now on track to jump at least 20%.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The news comes only days after Donald Trump opined on his Truth Social site that the CEO of another chipmaker should resign.
Trump said Intel chief Lip-Bu Tan is &ldquo;highly conflicted&rdquo; on account of his previous business ties in China. (Tan is Malaysian-born, and a U.S. citizen who&rsquo;s spent the entirety of his business career in America.)
The problem for Tan is that he&rsquo;s been on the job only since March. He inherited a major decision by his predecessor &mdash; to accept nearly $8 billion in subsidies from the Biden administration under the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022.
Intel is the biggest single recipient of these subsidies. You take the government&rsquo;s money, you dance to the government&rsquo;s tune.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Tan is paying a call on the White House today. What sort of deal might come out of that meeting?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> You might or might not approve of these tactics on the part of the president. But whatever your opinion&hellip;
&hellip; it comes back to a point we try to emphasize whenever politics intrudes on commerce.
Politicians make decisions every day that alter the flows of billions of dollars.
Whether it&rsquo;s backroom deals on Capitol Hill or executive orders coming from the White House, successful investing means positioning yourself so you can capture some of those flows, whatever you might think about government&rsquo;s role in the economy.
Really, that was the entire subtext to the Paradigm All-in Summit we held last Thursday &mdash; bringing together Jim Rickards, James Altucher and Enrique Abeyta. If you&rsquo;re a Paradigm Mastermind Group member, you already have an idea what we&rsquo;re talking about.

These three frequently have differing worldviews and differing investment approaches. But right now they&rsquo;re all in on a single idea &mdash; one that will be propelled by a White House announcement likely coming either today or tomorrow.
Little wonder that Paradigm publisher Matt Insley sent you an email yesterday saying he believes &ldquo;you&rsquo;ll look back on this moment years from now as the most critical turning point of your wealth-building journey.&rdquo;
If you haven&rsquo;t watched our all-in event, this is the time. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2467533">Click here now so you&rsquo;ll still </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2467533">have</a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2467533"> &ldquo;first mover&rdquo; advantage before this imminent announcement</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Profitable &ldquo;Misinformation&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Speaking of decisions in Washington that alter money flows&hellip; the spot price of gold has tumbled over $50 to $3,344, its lowest level since the start of the month. 
When we left you on Friday, the Financial Times had a scoop about the Trump administration planning to impose tariffs on imports of one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars &mdash; a historic first. Gold futures soared to record highs.
But while the markets were closed over the weekend, anonymous administration officials told Reuters and Bloomberg that Trump would soon issue an executive order that would clarify &ldquo;misinformation&rdquo; about these gold tariffs.
It&rsquo;s hard to shake the thought that somebody had inside knowledge of these leaks&hellip; and acted on it.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/20cFWRdmHnCz7RUZuEF8Sc/396a05f350da78a6c465cca27b7e74b8/DonTweet.png" alt="DonTweet" width="540px" />
Last month, similar hinky activity showed up in other asset classes: heavy selling of Tesla shares began minutes before Trump announced tariffs on batteries from China&hellip; a rally in the dollar minutes before Trump said he doesn&rsquo;t intend to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell&hellip; a plunge in Nasdaq futures minutes before Trump declared new tariffs on Canada and Europe&hellip;
No, there&rsquo;s no smoking gun that administration insiders are front-running these announcements. But someone&rsquo;s making a lot of money off them.
Anyway, silver got whacked alongside gold &mdash; the bid down 60 cents to $37.67.
Crypto is faring much better than the precious metals &mdash; Bitcoin rallying big yesterday and bigger earlier today, getting oh-so-close to last month&rsquo;s record over $122,000. It&rsquo;s since pulled back to $120,220.
Ethereum, meanwhile, finally broke through the $4,000 barrier and now rests over $4,300 &mdash; the highest since late 2021.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As for stocks, it&rsquo;s a mixed bag to start the week. 
At last check the S&amp;P 500 has inched into record territory, four points shy of 6,400. The Nasdaq is posting a slightly stronger gain, while the Dow is slightly in the red.
&ldquo;The S&amp;P has erased the majority of its early August losses,&rdquo; Greg Guenthner writes his Trading Desk readers. &ldquo;But fresh inflation data will test the bulls' conviction later this week. A more pronounced pullback this month remains likely.&rdquo;
Here, Greg is eyeing SPY, the giant S&amp;P 500 ETF &mdash; trading at $637.47 as we check our screens. &ldquo;The likelihood of a flush lower increases on a weekly close below 625.50,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;Regardless, we must respect this stubborn &lsquo;stocks only go up&rsquo; rally until cracks appear in the averages. Let&rsquo;s see how stocks stand up against this week&rsquo;s consumer price index and a handful of earnings reports.
&ldquo;The S&amp;P 500 could just as easily print a new all-time high as a two-week low by Friday.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />A Clean 10x in One Year
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Decisions from D.C. figure into today&rsquo;s Bullet No. 3 as well: For the second time this year, a White House announcement has propelled shares of Fannie Mae higher.
In May, the president said he was giving &ldquo;very serious consideration&rdquo; to taking the mortgage giant private; it&rsquo;s been under government control since the 2008 financial crisis.
After we hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on Friday&rsquo;s edition, The Wall Street Journal reported the administration is preparing to sell stock in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FNMA shares soared 20% on the news &mdash; and they&rsquo;re up another 10% this morning.
Several Paradigm analysts have been pounding the table on FNMA over the last year&hellip;
<ul>
<li>A year ago at this time, Dan Amoss recommended FNMA in Jim Rickards&rsquo; Situation Report; as of today, readers are sitting on a 1,000% gain</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Chris Cimorelli talked up FNMA last October during our &ldquo;America&rsquo;s Next Move&rdquo; gathering in Baltimore</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Davis Wilson told readers of The Million Mission in February that FNMA is <a href="https://million-mission.com/posts/buy-alert-extremely-rare-5x-return-opportunity?vid2=f7584bb8d0f8b4ef03ea4a2a79cb9ffebd5601637dfb4b221b21055bfe10aa56fb9565c7166c12ea93687031263ed97489aead8f437e4ddd1cfcbcd5e6a6bb06&amp;utm_campaign=FMF_Issue_05.22.25&amp;utm_source=Iterable&amp;itbl_templateId=17820277&amp;itbl_campaignId=13629573&amp;utm_medium=Email">an &ldquo;extremely rare 5x return opportunity.&rdquo;</a> He picked up 2,500 shares of FNMA at $7.25. As we write this morning, it&rsquo;s a penny shy of $11.</li>
</ul>
Still, Davis is leery of the market reaction to Friday&rsquo;s announcement: &ldquo;Is this based on fundamentals, or just headline hype? Right now, it&rsquo;s clearly the latter.
&ldquo;The real value here depends on what the IPO structure looks like, how much equity is actually released to public shareholders, and whether the government keeps a heavy hand on operations.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s a lot of ifs. But Davis is holding on tight &mdash; while advising readers, &ldquo;Don&rsquo;t be surprised if this continues whipsawing higher and lower.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Not So Natural
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> France&rsquo;s purest mineral water might not be as pure as it claims to be? Sacre bleu!
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6qlIEwObjuukOBbIw8VJL3/706e315a5f2dfbca092bb09b27d6a985/BBCNews.png" alt="BBC News" width="540px" />
A year ago, the newspaper Le Monde and Radio France revealed that at least a third of &ldquo;mineral water&rdquo; sold in the country had in fact been treated &mdash; whether by ultraviolet light, carbon filtering or mesh material.
The problem is that under European Union law, anything marketed as &ldquo;natural mineral water&rdquo; should have nothing coming between the spring and the bottle.
And yes, the most popular names including Perrier and Evian are implicated in this scandal.
Reports the BBC: &ldquo;Complicating matters for Perrier and its parent company Nestl&eacute; &mdash; as well as President Emmanuel Macron's government &mdash; is the charge that executives and ministers conspired to keep the affair quiet, covered up reports of contamination and re-wrote the rules so that Perrier could continue using micro-filtration.&rdquo;
Legacy media outlets are trying to spin this story as a global-warming thing: Several years of drought have brought on fears of contamination &mdash; thus, the producers of mineral water resort to filtering or other treatment.
"The commercial model of the big producers has worked very well,&rdquo; hydrologist Emma Haziza tells the BBC. &ldquo;But it is absolutely not sustainable at a time of global climate change,:&rdquo;
For its part, Perrier denies that contaminants are entering the deep-water aquifers.
In any event, the upshot is that within a few months, EU authorities might forbid Perrier to market itself as natural mineral water.
Little wonder that over the last year or so, the company has pivoted to a brand of energy drinks and flavored water called &ldquo;Maison Perrier.&rdquo; No issues with these products being filtered&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Finding Courage
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />High praise in the mailbag for Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta, after his guest column on Saturday.
&ldquo;Hello Enrique &mdash; people have always told me that stock options are the best way to lose everything you have. Because of that, I have avoided learning more.
&ldquo;<a href="https://truthandtrends.com/posts/ken-griffin-is-full-of-sh-t">Your article</a> this morning makes so much sense. The big boys don&rsquo;t want other people playing in their lane. I have downloaded the e-book you recommended. Thank you for giving me the courage to start looking into stock options Investing.&rdquo;
Dave responds: We made sure Enrique saw your note, and he conveys his thanks for your kind words.
For anyone else looking to dip their toe into options, we publish <a href="https://concierge.paradigmpressgroup.com/post/paradigm-press-presents-the-ultimate-beginners-guide-to-stock-options?vid2=25fbe7ad9f9d91506407e0738f037e6eb6d96bab7f5cbad125fbd82fa5aebaf396a52c5621159115b5b6caf882b59582&amp;utm_campaign=PROOF_CAMPAIGN_NAME&amp;utm_source=Iterable&amp;itbl_templateId=18075565&amp;itbl_campaignId=-12345&amp;utm_medium=Email">The Ultimate Beginner&rsquo;s Guide to Stock Options</a>.

And for the investment idea that Enrique is most enthusiastic about right now&hellip; we direct your attention once more to the recent Paradigm All-In Summit. He, Jim Rickards and James Altucher have all rallied around one company that&rsquo;s poised to soar after an announcement from the White House either today or tomorrow. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2467533">Once more, check it out right here while there&rsquo;s still time</a>.

Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Extortion

The Trump administration has granted export licenses to chipmakers Nvidia and AMD so they can sell their semiconductors in China. 

Extortion Racket

White-paper

Silicon Valley is getting on board with the White House: Big money is shifting away from digital technology and software… 

The Plan (Reviving American Industry)

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Trump: &ldquo;Let&rsquo;s Blow This TACO Stand&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The TACO trade is falling apart as a new week begins.
The term &ldquo;TACO&rdquo; as applied to finance began with Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong three months ago. At the time, Donald Trump had a tendency to back down from his most extreme tariff threats against other countries.
Thus, TACO &mdash; &ldquo;Trump always chickens out.&rdquo;
Right or wrong, the term took off on Wall Street and in the financial media. And on the assumption that &ldquo;chickening out&rdquo; generally translates to &ldquo;rising stock prices&rdquo;... well, the TACO trade has been a winner. From the date of Armstrong&rsquo;s column (May 2) through Friday&rsquo;s market close, the S&amp;P 500 rose 9.7%. Not bad for three months!
And that includes Friday&rsquo;s steep drop of 1.6% &mdash; brought on in part by the realization that Trump might not back down after all.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The key date to watch this week is Thursday &mdash; when twin tariff deadlines loom.
The one that&rsquo;s getting all the buzz is the one mentioned here on Friday &mdash; a raft of tariffs Trump declared against dozens of countries, with rates ranging between 10&ndash;50%.
In theory, there&rsquo;s still time between now and Thursday for those countries&rsquo; leaders to come to terms with Washington on a trade deal. But how likely is that at this stage?
But it&rsquo;s the other tariff deadline Thursday, the one getting much less publicity, that could have more impact. That&rsquo;s the one targeting anyone who buys energy from Russia. Unless Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in the next three days, all countries that buy Russian energy will be subject to a tariff of 100%.
That would include major trading partners like China and the European Union.
Between the tariff threats and Friday&rsquo;s punk job numbers &mdash; more about those in Bullet No. 3 &mdash; the vibe coming into this week is&hellip; disquieting. &ldquo;Trump Tariffs Inject More Uncertainty Into Global Economy,&rdquo; says a CNBC headline, accompanied by the same stock photo of &ldquo;worried trader&rdquo; the station always trots out at times like these.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5NCGTlWLCbFtNt89HsCXgZ/0291cbde181ae48d14b3993c0800523e/CNBC.png" alt="CNBC" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And yet&hellip; three of Paradigm&rsquo;s top gurus are coalescing around one company they agree is a screaming &ldquo;buy.&rdquo;
That includes our macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards &mdash; who&rsquo;s very choosy about stocks and who&rsquo;s told his readers all along to ignore the TACO talk.
It also includes our AI-and-crypto bull James Altucher &mdash; who frequently takes issue with Jim Rickards&rsquo; outlook.
And it includes our hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta &mdash; a trader&rsquo;s trader who zeroes in on price action more than on macroeconomic and fundamental factors.
Only twice in our firm&rsquo;s history have all three of these gentlemen agreed on a single name&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Palantir Technologies &mdash; last year&rsquo;s top performer in the S&amp;P 500. Paradigm&rsquo;s official position is up 820% in 18 months</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>MP Materials &mdash; a very recent winner spotlighted in this space. In only two weeks, our official recommendation leaped 918%.</li>
</ul>
This time the potential gains are even greater &mdash; by our team&rsquo;s calculations, 1,494% by next year&hellip; 3,523% by the end of Trump&rsquo;s term&hellip; even a staggering 18,015% by the end of the decade.
Paradigm Mastermind Group members will be getting this recommendation later in the week. If you&rsquo;re not among them, you won&rsquo;t want to miss a one-of-a-kind event called The Paradigm All-In Summit.
It&rsquo;s set for Thursday at 1:00 p.m. EDT. Attendance is free, but we do ask that you sign up in advance so we know how many people to expect.
<a href="{{link}}">Sign-up is as simple as clicking on this link</a>; we&rsquo;ll email you everything you need to know so you&rsquo;ll be ready for Thursday.

Clicking the link above automatically registers you for The All-In Summit. By reserving your spot, you will receive event updates and offers. We will not share your email address with anyone. And you can opt out at any time. <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/privacy-policy">Privacy Policy.</a>

&nbsp;

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />About Friday&rsquo;s Sell-Off&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Now to put the market jitters in further context: Stocks were due for a rest. If it weren&rsquo;t tariffs and the job numbers, it would be something else.
Going into Friday&rsquo;s sell-off, Paradigm chart hound Greg Guenthner wrote the following to his Truth &amp; Trends readers: &ldquo;The S&amp;P 500 would have to drop nearly 7% just to retest its 200-day moving average. The red-hot Nasdaq Composite would need to fall 10% to retest the same level.
&ldquo;Neither move would meaningfully impact their longer-term uptrends.&rdquo;
Greg sees parallels between the post-&rdquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; rally that started April 9, 2025&hellip; and the rally that started March 23, 2020. That&rsquo;s when the Federal Reserve cranked up the printing presses amid COVID lockdowns.
Five years ago, he says, &ldquo;The rally off the COVID lows topped out in late August and produced not one but two meaningful corrective moves of approximately 10% heading into the start of the fourth quarter.&rdquo; Take a look&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/18sZZvlEceeIq41lzzMh8s/47e0faead2f0503bcdd6fb2585f1cef8/s_P500.png" alt="S&amp;P500" width="540px" />
&ldquo;A seasonal slowdown or sell-off would also make sense here,&rdquo; Greg goes on. &ldquo;August has a reputation as an unpredictable and sometimes tumultuous month. September also tends to be volatile. Turning to the post-election year cycle, we tend to see the market peak in late July/early August and remain choppy through late October.&rdquo;
If you want to pinpoint a date when the market could launch a new rally, Greg suggests Oct. 17 &mdash; which is options expiration Friday. Mid-October marked the start of healthy rallies in both 2022 and 2023.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the meantime, the major stock indexes are bouncing off of Friday&rsquo;s lows.
In early Monday trade, the S&amp;P 500 is up more than 1%, back over 6,300. The Dow&rsquo;s gains are more modest, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s stronger.
As for nondollar assets, gold is back within about $20 of $3,400; silver is back over $37. Bitcoin is staging a recovery from a late July-early August slump. From lows near $112,000 early Sunday it&rsquo;s back over $115K.
Elsewhere, oil is down over 2.5% to $65.70 after several OPEC nations including Saudi Arabia announced another production boost. For all intents and purposes, the production cuts put into place during 2023 have all been reversed now.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />About the &ldquo;Rigged&rsquo; Job Numbers&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The monthly job numbers are indeed &ldquo;RIGGED&rdquo; &mdash; but not necessarily in the way Donald Trump means it.
As mentioned here on Friday, the July job numbers came in weaker than expected. Further, the June and May numbers were revised sharply downward.
After Emily hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on that edition, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer &mdash; commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics &mdash; complete with an accusation that she gamed the stats to make him look bad.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The reality is that the monthly job numbers have been gamed for decades. 
The 10% unemployment rate during Barack Obama&rsquo;s first term (2010) was not the same 10% unemployment rate during Ronald Reagan&rsquo;s first term (1982&ndash;83).
In the interim, the wonks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics steadily redefined what it meant to be &ldquo;unemployed.&rdquo;
During the Reagan years, the official &ldquo;U-3&rdquo; unemployment rate included part-timers who wanted to work full time. It also included folks who&rsquo;d given up looking for work.
But in the decades since, those people were increasingly excluded from U-3.
Folks who&rsquo;d given up looking for work and hadn&rsquo;t looked for work in at least 12 months? They just didn&rsquo;t count anymore. Meanwhile, those who&rsquo;d given up looking for work within the previous 12 months, as well as the part-timers seeking full-time gigs, got lumped into a new unemployment rate called &ldquo;U-6.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The consequences of all this statistical sleight-of-hand have been dramatic. 
In May of 2023, for instance, the official U-3 unemployment rate was a stellar 3.6%. But if you ran the numbers the way they were in the early 1980s, it would be&hellip;
[drumroll, please&hellip;]
&hellip; 24.7%.
That&rsquo;s according to economist John Williams, who&rsquo;s made a career out of running the numbers the old-fashioned way at his Shadow Government Statistics research firm.
We&rsquo;ll leave it to others to analyze whether the 2025 job numbers have been jimmied to make Trump look bad.
But at least now you know some history about how the numbers have long been fiddled with to make the job market look better than it really is.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This meme more or less speaks for itself&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/I1Tza1BHVz8Qld1YMzHa8/5aecff5449affa685c83ef7eb3f5c733/Diagram.png" alt="diagram" width="350px" />
Just a reminder about why we keep getting mileage out of the Epstein story: He was a finance guy, after all &mdash; and one whose sources of wealth remain a mystery to this day.
Furthermore, Epstein&rsquo;s connections spotlight the intersection of finance, politics and media.
There&rsquo;s still no better illustration of this phenomenon than <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2019/07/08/its-a-big-club-and-you-aint-in-it/">something I wrote in the summer of 2019</a>, about an elite party held one night in the Hamptons. It turned out that at the very moment the party was underway, <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2019/07/09/jeffrey-epstein-and-the-media-finance-politics-nexus/">Jeffrey Epstein was being arrested on federal charges</a> of trafficking underage girls.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />The Mailbag: Misperceptions
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I think you did a good job of explaining some terms and how things will work in areas of crypto,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-usd4-trillion-crypto-quake">James Altucher&rsquo;s guest essay last week</a>.
[We&rsquo;ve been at this long enough to know there&rsquo;s a &ldquo;but&rdquo; coming&hellip;]
&ldquo;BUT James and Paradigm are continuing to distract people by promoting the same cryptos that got a free pass and CNBC and others push as well.
&ldquo;Yes, Ethereum did improve things, which is good. And they will rise in price and BTC could double, but you are not talking about the little elephant in the room that is the ONLY crypto with LEGAL clarity that it is NOT a security.
&ldquo;This crypto is better than both of the others in the long run, certainly percentage-growthwise. Once the CLARITY Act passes, the flood gates will open. Ethereum has improved, but it still is not as good nor as connected worldwide with institutions and banks as Ripple and its XRP.
&ldquo;I can only assume that Paradigm along with the other big insiders do not want the XRP price to go up yet so they can buy in early before the 18&ndash;20 companies get their ETF approval to list it. Those ETFs will dwarf Ethereum and could surpass BTC with speed and market cap.&rdquo;
Dave responds: I assure you that no Paradigm editor would ever resort to the kind of front-running you describe.
Believe me, whenever James Altucher and Chris Campbell have the conviction that a certain crypto is about to take off like a rocket thanks to a regulatory catalyst&hellip; they collaborate with our marketing folks to get the word out.
Think about it. Why would they want to deprive readers of such a terrific opportunity? The basic business proposition in our line of work is this: Our editors prosper when our readers prosper.
The simple fact is that at this time, James and Chris lack the conviction you have.
In the past, I&rsquo;ve even spoken with Chris about the fervor bordering on obsession that some people have with XRP (along with Iraqi dinar and Indonesian rupiah banknotes, it seems).
Those folks are entitled to their opinions. But Chris and James have done the work, and they&rsquo;re not persuaded. No ulterior motives.
It&rsquo;s that simple. Just wanted to nip any misperceptions in the bud&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1S3ttjovhOX6n70ewlotZ0/2258195b49208db76be3620863c5af59/bud.png" alt="bud" width="350px" />
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S. Apologies in advance, but due to extenuating circumstances your 5 Bullets experience this week might be a little unusual. Some days like today you&rsquo;ll hear from me. Others you might be treated to a guest essay. Too, the arrival times of your issues might be irregular (like today).
Thanks for your patience. We&rsquo;ll be back to a more regular rhythm late this week or early next.

Tacos

The key date to watch this week is Thursday — when twin tariff deadlines loom.

Trump: “Let’s Blow This TACO Stand”

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />For Every Action&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Lithium stands as the white &ldquo;gold&rdquo; of the 21st century. This lightweight, highly reactive metal powers the batteries that run electric vehicles (EVs), store renewable energy and underpin the &ldquo;green&rdquo; technology revolution.
And as global demand surges, the largest lithium deposits are inviting worldwide attention &mdash; and inviting some unintended consequences.
In Chile&rsquo;s Atacama Desert, one of the richest lithium sources on earth, mining uses up to 65% of local water supplies.
In this drought-prone region, water is life &mdash; for ecosystems, for rare species like flamingos and for communities whose livelihoods depend on scarce water resources.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2xPJFwWXTLRVJZnGTvYh1x/c919e5d0835c6c70688390447199df7c/Chili.png" alt="chili" width="540px" />

Atacama Desert, Chile: The Earth&rsquo;s driest desert Courtesy: X
Over time, shrinking lagoons have scarred the landscape, altered fragile habitats and put pressure on the local economy and traditional ways of life.
Yet, Chile&rsquo;s lithium plays a crucial role, enabling &ldquo;cleaner&rdquo; energy technologies. EVs for instance, release fewer emissions than gasoline-powered cars.
However, extracting lithium is resource-heavy and energy-intensive. For every ton of lithium produced? Fifteen tons of carbon dioxide are released, according to MIT research.
Sprawling mining operations, in fact, can create environmental impacts sometimes worse than fossil fuel extraction itself.
This reality reveals a hard truth: Cleaner technologies depend heavily on minerals that aren&rsquo;t harvested without consequence.
Recognizing this fact doesn&rsquo;t dismiss the importance of lithium; rather, it calls for smarter mining using better technology&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />&hellip; An Equal (and Opposite?) Reaction
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the sprawling Manono lithium project holds some of the world&rsquo;s richest reserves. 
This strategic asset has long been entangled in complicated deals involving foreign powers, ranging from Chinese state-backed companies to Australian mining firms with historical claims
Recently, startup KoBold Metals &mdash; backed, in part, by American billionaires Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates &mdash; secured a major agreement with the DRC government to develop these lithium resources.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/kg36YdgMhDnkyluWiLhcJ/cde31f3924115d25491cf95742fac33e/BusinessInsider.png" alt="business insider" width="540px" />
KoBold combines cutting-edge artificial intelligence with mining expertise to map and extract minerals with more precision.
This tech-driven approach promises to boost production efficiency and reduce environmental disruption compared to traditional methods.
The company&rsquo;s $1 billion investment aims to diversify lithium supply chains, lessening global reliance on dominant players, and bringing U.S.-friendly alternatives into the mix.
The takeaway is clear: lithium&rsquo;s significance in the energy sector is indisputable. But there are enormous trade-offs. At this stage, the challenge lies in carefully managing and mitigating the risks involved.
For investors? &ldquo;Energy was once written off &mdash; until it wasn&rsquo;t,&rdquo; says Paradigm editor Davis Wilson. &ldquo;The same setup could be unfolding for lithium today.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />&ldquo;Fundamentals of Gold&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I want to cover the fundamentals of gold,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macro expert Jim Rickards. To do so, he poses a series of questions. First: What makes gold a good diversifying tool?
&ldquo;Gold prices do not correlate closely to stock prices,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;Gold and stocks are driven by separate factors. That makes gold a good diversification asset for portfolios that are heavy in stocks.
&ldquo;When a portfolio is highly diversified, it can produce higher expected returns without adding risk. The difficult part is finding asset classes that really are diversified.
&ldquo;Buying 50 different stocks is not diversification since you only have one asset class &mdash; stocks &mdash; and the behavior of various shares will be highly correlated in times of stress.
&ldquo;Gold is genuinely diversified from stocks and will improve portfolio returns.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Who should add gold to their portfolios, and how much should they allocate?
&ldquo;Every investor should have an allocation to gold in his portfolio. It's an excellent diversification and can be a powerful asset to have in the face of natural disaster, infrastructure collapse or social unrest.&rdquo;
Jim notes: &ldquo;I recommend a 10% allocation of investable assets. In calculating investable assets, you should exclude home equity and the value of any private business.
&ldquo;Don&rsquo;t gamble with your house and livelihood. Whatever is left (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) are your investible assets. Allocate 10% of that amount to gold.
That allocation is high enough that you&rsquo;ll make significant profits (and protect against losses in the rest of your portfolio) if gold soars, but small enough that your overall portfolio won&rsquo;t be hurt badly if gold goes down.
&ldquo;A 10% allocation is the sweet spot for both profits and downside protection,&rdquo; he repeats.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Why is gold a good hedge against inflation?
&ldquo;Gold is priced in dollars. Inflation means the dollar is worth less in terms of purchasing power. That means it takes more dollars to buy gold, so the dollar price of gold goes up.
&ldquo;What you may lose in the rest of your portfolio in terms of dollar purchasing power is made up, in part or all, on the profits you make from the higher dollar price of gold,&rdquo; says Jim.
&ldquo;Inflation has a way of sneaking up on investors in small increments and can do a lot of damage before investors see it for what it is.
&ldquo;Owning gold will protect you from that. You&rsquo;ll have your inflation protection in place 24/7 and won&rsquo;t be caught off-guard.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Why is it smart to own gold in times of global conflict/political turmoil?
&ldquo;Geopolitical conflicts and political turmoil often result in unforeseen consequences,&rdquo; Jim adds.
&ldquo;These consequences can include supply chain disruptions, economic sanctions, asset seizures and freezes&rdquo; &mdash; see below &mdash; &ldquo;bond defaults, bank failures and inflation.
&ldquo;Oil prices can spike if key waterways are closed or a vessel is sunk. Economic sanctions and financial warfare can cause recession or a banking crisis almost overnight.
&ldquo;Assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. can be adversely affected by such changes without warning.
&ldquo;Gold tends to be insulated from such shocks because there is no issuer, no creditor and no country involved. It's just gold. That means you can hold it safely and wait out the turmoil without adverse effects.
&ldquo;The bottom line is gold anchors the rest of a diversified portfolio. It is physical so it is not easily frozen like government fiat.
&ldquo;It offers diversification because it does not correlate to other asset performance. It is the best hedge against inflation.
&ldquo;Gold should not dominate any portfolio,&rdquo; concludes Jim, &ldquo;but it should be part of every portfolio.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />About That Fed Rate Cut&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Jim Rickards&rsquo; <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-ai-blindspot#2">forecast</a> of a Federal Reserve rate cut is gaining credibility &mdash; especially in light of the Fed&rsquo;s &ldquo;dual mandate&rdquo;: controlling inflation and unemployment.
To wit, the July 2025 U.S. jobs report shows a slowdown in job growth with only 73,000 new jobs added &mdash; well below economists&rsquo; expectation of 100,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, marking an increase from June's 4.1%.
The data, in fact, reflects the lowest monthly increase recorded in 2025. Notably, the labor force participation rate has declined, and manufacturing hiring has stalled amid tariff uncertainty.
Speaking of, the ISM Manufacturing index dropped from 49.0 in June to 48.0 in July &mdash; markedly lower than analysts' prediction of 49.5. (For reference, any number under 50 suggests contraction.)
&ldquo;The job market looks significantly worse today than it did before this report,&rdquo; says Jed Kolko of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Well, yes&hellip; 
Here&rsquo;s an interesting factoid, courtesy of The Wall Street Journal: &ldquo;A year and a half ago, the economy needed to add 166,000 jobs a month to keep the labor market steady, according to Kolko. As of June, Kolko said, the needed number was only 86,000.&rdquo;
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s fallen so much because this immigration surge has ended,&rdquo; Kolko says. &ldquo;In other words, a job creation number that might have looked lackluster a year and a half ago,&rdquo; WSJ adds, &ldquo;might actually be strong today.&rdquo; Hmm&hellip; 
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On Thursday, President Trump signed executive orders setting new reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10&ndash;41% on imports from 69 countries. 
Most tariffs will take effect on August 7, allowing Customs and Border Protection time to adjust and giving countries an opportunity to negotiate better terms.
However, Canada faces an immediate tariff increase from 25% to 35%, starting today. According to President Trump, this prompt action is due to Canada&rsquo;s inadequate cooperation in curbing the flow of illicit drugs across the border.
Generally, countries with a U.S. trade surplus will face 10% tariffs, while those with trade deficits will see rates starting at 15%. High tariffs have been imposed on nations including Syria (41%), Myanmar (40%), Laos (40%) and Switzerland (39%).
Taiwan will face a 20% tariff on its exports to the U.S. beginning August 7, 2025. This rate is lower than the originally threatened 32% in April but higher than the 15% tariffs applied to Japan, South Korea and the European Union.
China and Mexico are temporarily exempt amid ongoing negotiations, with China&rsquo;s tariff deadline set for August 12.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Two more Big Tech earnings to report: Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL). 
Amazon reported strong Q2 results with revenue of $167.7 billion, up 13% year-over-year, beating expectations. Earnings per share were $1.68, above the predicted $1.32. AWS revenue grew 17.5% to $30.9 billion, driving most of Amazon&rsquo;s operating profits, which totaled $19.2 billion. Advertising revenue also rose 22%.
And Apple reported solid fiscal Q3 2025 results with revenue of $94 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.57, up 12% from last year. iPhone sales grew 13% to $44.6 billion, driven by the new iPhone 16 lineup and an unusual buying pattern partly linked to tariff concerns.
All good, right? Despite the earnings beat, AMZN shares are down almost 8% today while AAPL&rsquo;s down 2%.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On second thought, Amazon and Apple aren&rsquo;t really outliers today&hellip; Stocks are getting hammered. 
Admittedly, the Nasdaq is getting hit hardest; the tech-heavy index is down 1.75% to 20,753. Stuck in the middle &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 &ndash; is down 1.25% to 6,255 while the Big Board is down &ldquo;just&rdquo; 1% to 43,650.
Precious metals? They&rsquo;re catching a bid today: Gold&rsquo;s up 1.30% to $3,392.70 per ounce, and silver&rsquo;s up 0.40% to $36.85.
But the crypto market&rsquo;s in a slump. Bitcoin&rsquo;s lost 1.50% to $115,200, and Ethereum&rsquo;s down 3.80% to $3,600.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />UPDATE: U.S. Private Vaults&rsquo; Federal Raid
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> More than four years after federal agents raided <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2021/05/12/innocence-is-no-defense-against-federal-seizure/">U.S. Private Vaults</a> in Beverly Hills, civil asset forfeiture is again in the spotlight.
The controversial case saw more than 800 safe-deposit boxes seized &mdash; by a joint taskforce including the FBI, DEA and USPS &mdash; with the justification that U.S. Private Vaults catered to criminals, offering extreme customer anonymity and a &ldquo;don&rsquo;t ask, don&rsquo;t tell&rdquo; policy.
Yet the raid swept up not only those accused of criminal wrongdoing, but also hundreds of everyday people who used the boxes to store life savings, family heirlooms and important documents.
Among the innocent caught in the dragnet was Linda Martin, who lost $40,200 in the raid. Despite the warrant expressly forbidding agents from searching or seizing customers&rsquo; property, the FBI took her money and offered no explanation.
Later, the &ldquo;notice&rdquo; sent to Martin referenced a laundry list of potential federal crimes but didn&rsquo;t specify why she was targeted or which law(s) she allegedly violated.
Although the FBI eventually returned her cash, Martin fought back in court, hoping to defend her civil rights to due process, privacy and more. She argued, with the support of the Institute for Justice, that the government must provide specific, fact-based explanations when seizing someone&rsquo;s assets.
Unfortunately, Ms. Martin&rsquo;s case hit a dead end last week, as the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia dismissed her case for lack of jurisdiction. (Legal advocates observe that most forfeiture cases never even make it all the way through the court system due to procedural hurdles.)
For now, the case&rsquo;s dismissal means the FBI&rsquo;s current forfeiture practices remain largely unchecked. And federal agencies retain broad powers to seize property, while Americans &mdash; and their property rights &mdash; remain under siege.
Try to have a good weekend, reader&hellip; And don&rsquo;t forget to check out Saturday&rsquo;s 5 Bullets. Take care!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

The world’s largest lithium deposits are inviting worldwide attention — and inviting some unintended consequences.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Wall Street&rsquo;s AI Blind Spot
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />According to Paradigm&rsquo;s crypto-and-AI expert James Altucher: &ldquo;China is quietly creating an AI empire that could soon rival Big Tech&rsquo;s dominance. And almost nobody is talking about it.&rdquo;
Earlier this year, a small Chinese startup named DeepSeek stunned the tech world by unveiling an AI model matching OpenAI&rsquo;s capabilities &mdash; at a fraction of the cost.
For a brief moment, headlines buzzed with concern about China&rsquo;s AI progress. But then, &ldquo;everyone went back to ignoring it,&rdquo; says James. &ldquo;Big mistake.&rdquo;
Chinese AI development is advancing at an incredibly rapid pace, but one company stands out&hellip;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1ZLN6iszOew2nIDNYK65s7/a5bc9173ebb63984b947d435712fa5fb/AJ.png" width="540px" />
Over the past decade, the e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) has transformed into an AI powerhouse, developing some of the most advanced AI models in the world.
In April, Alibaba released its Qwen3 model family, which &ldquo;matched or beat offerings from OpenAI and Google on several key benchmarks,&rdquo; James says.
&ldquo;Last week, a new version of Qwen3 surpassed both OpenAI&rsquo;s o4-mini and Google&rsquo;s Gemini-2.5 Pro on major reasoning tests.&rdquo;
Plus, Alibaba plans to pour $53 billion into AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years. And the company is &ldquo;backing Moonshot AI, whose Kimi K2 model is beating ChatGPT and Claude in coding tasks.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> What distinguishes Alibaba as a leader at the forefront of AI innovation?
Unlike American tech giants struggling with high labor costs &mdash; including Nvidia, Google and Microsoft &mdash; Alibaba benefits from &ldquo;China&rsquo;s vast pool of AI talent at a fraction of Silicon Valley salaries,&rdquo; James notes.
The company is embedding AI throughout its massive e-commerce ecosystem, which serves millions of customers daily. Its cloud business is rapidly growing and becoming the &ldquo;Amazon Web Services of Asia&rdquo; with AI built into its core.
In February, Alibaba struck a deal with Apple to provide the AI brains for Siri in China. Recently, they announced that their AI assistant, Quark, will soon power smart glasses &mdash; potentially rivaling Meta&rsquo;s Ray-Ban offerings.
The company is making breakthroughs in healthcare too: its Damo Panda AI model received FDA breakthrough device designation for detecting pancreatic cancer with 34.1% greater accuracy than radiologists.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Despite this innovation, Alibaba is undervalued compared to its American peers.
Its market cap is about one-tenth of Amazon&rsquo;s, and it trades at just 13 times earnings &mdash; a fraction of what U.S. peers command. This valuation gap exists largely due to lingering investor wariness about Chinese stocks stemming from &ldquo;past accounting scandals and fears of government interference.&rdquo; But James argues this fear may be overblown regarding Alibaba.
He further highlights that Alibaba has a &ldquo;strong balance sheet with more cash than debt, operates in sectors the Chinese government wants to develop (AI, cloud computing, e-commerce, etc.) and is actively buying back shares, showing confidence in its own future.
&ldquo;The geopolitical risks are real,&rdquo; James concedes, &ldquo;but they're likely priced into the stock already. China knows that harming foreign investors would trigger retaliation, potentially threatening companies like TikTok in Western markets.
&ldquo;Meanwhile, US-China chip tensions are thawing, with Trump reversing Biden's ban on shipping Nvidia H20 chips to China. This opens the door for even faster AI development at Alibaba.
&ldquo;For investors, this creates a rare opportunity,&rdquo; he concludes. &ldquo;While everyone else chases the same handful of American AI stocks at premium prices, you could be positioning yourself in what might be the most overlooked AI opportunity on the market.
&ldquo;The AI revolution represents a once-in-a-generation wealth creation opportunity,&rdquo; James says. &ldquo;And Chinese AI &mdash; specifically Alibaba &mdash; might be the most overlooked part of that opportunity.&rdquo;
<a id="2"></a>

[Urgent: This afternoon, all eyes are trained on American tech giant Apple, awaiting a game-changing announcement from CEO Tim Cook. That&rsquo;s why it&rsquo;s absolutely crucial you act FAST &mdash; before Apple&rsquo;s big reveal 4 pm EST. Or you risk missing out on a prime opportunity.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2464611">Click here</a> to view James Altucher&rsquo;s down-to-the-wire briefing, including simple steps in order to take immediate action.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />A Fed Rate Cut Incoming?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The Fed did continue the pause in its Fed funds rate as we predicted. This kept the Fed&rsquo;s target rate unchanged at 4.50%,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macro expert Jim Rickards, kicking off his post-FOMC meeting roundup.
Notably, two FOMC members disagreed with the decision to pause rate cuts. These two &ldquo;no&rdquo; votes are important because they don't happen often; dissent suggests there is some disagreement and debate at the Fed about the best path forward.
Jim underscores the significance of this division: &ldquo;Counting board member votes only, the vote to pause on policy changes was 5-2, which is an uncomfortably small majority in a world where collegiality and consensus are everything.&rdquo;
Division at the Fed hints at potential shift in policy or leadership ahead &mdash; especially as Chair Jerome Powell&rsquo;s term nears its end in 2026.
The meeting&rsquo;s focus, meanwhile, Jim notes, centered on the Fed&rsquo;s &ldquo;dual mandate&rdquo;: controlling inflation and fostering employment.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;For now, the Fed&rsquo;s action on Wednesday clearly shows it is less concerned about unemployment and more interested in fighting inflation by keeping rates at a relatively high level,&rdquo; Jim says.
Recent inflation data show a troubling upward trend &mdash; we&rsquo;ll have more to say about inflation in a moment &mdash; while unemployment rates have remained stable.
Powell acknowledged the delicate balance in his post-meeting remarks: &ldquo;Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated... The moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending.&rdquo;
Jim interprets these comments as a possible signal: &ldquo;A rate cut is a near certainty,&rdquo; given that inflation data can be interpreted to justify easing. (Jim&rsquo;s forecast, by the way, bucks popular opinion.)
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/GEpmW8yvvmvEdKjcn5EqR/8db9f3b21589aacf56e357ce6cc10046/Jim-tweet2.png" alt="jim tweet" width="540px" />
Jim suggests that if consensus at the Fed erodes further, decisive policy moves &mdash; including a strong rate cut at the September meeting &mdash; could very well be on the horizon.
Ultimately, Jim warns the Fed appears to be &ldquo;following markets and not leading them. That&rsquo;s bad news for investors because, if the Fed were leading the economy, they would get ahead of the coming recession.
&ldquo;They&rsquo;re not,&rdquo; he concludes, &ldquo;doing either.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Market Miscellany
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) index, the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.3% in June 2025, matching economist expectations but surpassing May&rsquo;s revised 0.2% increase.
On a yearly basis, core PCE inflation &mdash; which strips out food and energy prices &mdash; rose 2.8%, slightly above forecasts but ruler-flat from May&rsquo;s revised reading.
Once again, June&rsquo;s number signals persistent inflation, firmly entrenched above the Fed&rsquo;s 2% inflation target.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) both reported strong earnings on Wednesday afternoon, exceeding analysts' expectations and boosting share prices. 
Meta posted Q2 revenue of $47.52 billion &mdash; a 22% increase year-over-year &mdash; with net income rising 36% to $18.34 billion, or $7.14 per share.
Its core advertising revenue grew 21%, and Meta expects third-quarter revenue between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, beating forecasts. The company also raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to between $66 billion and $72 billion, reflecting heavy investments in AI infrastructure.
Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $76.44 billion, up 18%, with net income increasing to $27.23 billion, or $3.65 per share. Like Meta, Microsoft plans substantial capital expenditures, with over $30 billion anticipated in the first fiscal quarter, driven by AI investments.
Plus, Microsoft surpassed the $4 trillion market cap milestone.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> At the time of writing, META shares are up 11.5% while MSFT is up 4.5%. 
As for the broader stock indexes, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s leading the way, up 0.60% to 21,260, and the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.25% to 6,380. The Big Board, however, is down about 0.30% to 44,335.
Commodities are hitting the skids today. The price of crude is down 1.85% to $68.75 for a barrel of WTI. Meanwhile, gold is down 0.10% to $3,349.20 per ounce, but silver&rsquo;s getting kicked in the teeth: down almost 3% to $36.65.
The crypto market? Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are up about 1% to $118K and $3,780 respectively.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Overbought Doesn&rsquo;t Mean OVER
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;While stocks are getting a little overbought here, it&rsquo;s not set in stone that we&rsquo;ll see a broad pullback soon or even at all!&rdquo; emphasizes Paradigm&rsquo;s retirement-and-income specialist Zach Scheidt.
Zach defines overbought as a scenario wherein stocks have &ldquo;moved up too far, too fast,&rdquo; often detected by technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, Zach says this condition can resolve in multiple ways, not just through sharp declines.
One common but overlooked resolution is consolidation, when prices &ldquo;trade sideways within a range for weeks or even months.&rdquo; This process &ldquo;resets valuations, cools off sentiment, and allows earnings or economic data to catch up to price levels,&rdquo; though it may frustrate momentum traders.
Another way is through a shift in leadership among sectors. Zach notes: &ldquo;If tech stocks led the rally and are now overbought, money may rotate into energy, industrials, or financials,&rdquo; easing pressure under the surface without dragging the whole market down.
&ldquo;Prices may fall 3&ndash;5% or more as investors lock in profits and wait for better entry points,&rdquo; he continues. &ldquo;This is the most obvious resolution and what many expect when they hear the term overbought.
&ldquo;The key point, though, is that not every dip signals the start of a deeper bear market. It's often just the market resetting expectations and absorbing gains.
&ldquo;Understanding these dynamics is crucial for both short-term traders and long-term investors,&rdquo; Zach concludes. &ldquo;Instead of exiting positions prematurely or without a plan, it may be more prudent to tighten stop-losses, reduce risk in extended names, or look for relative strength in under-owned sectors.
&ldquo;Overbought signals are just that: signals. They suggest caution, not panic.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Summer&rsquo;s Budget-Friendly Buzz
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This summer, if you&rsquo;re scanning bar menus and spot a cocktail &mdash; the &ldquo;Spaghett&rdquo; &mdash; you don&rsquo;t have heatstroke. 
This fizzy concoction &mdash; <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2023/04/27/powells-glitch-in-the-matrix/#440">Miller High Life</a> plus a splash of Italian aperitif Aperol and maybe a dash of lemon &mdash; has bubbled up from bartender secret to reigning champ of budget-friendly coolers.
The switch to Spaghetts isn&rsquo;t just about refreshment; it&rsquo;s a wallet-driven decision. Nicknamed the &ldquo;hobo Negroni&rdquo; and the &ldquo;trailer park spritz,&rdquo; it&rsquo;s the Aperol spritz&rsquo;s thrifty cousin.
The Spaghett first appeared on menus at Wet City Brewery in Baltimore, Maryland &mdash; shoutout to Paradigm&rsquo;s HQ! &mdash; where it was created by bartender Reed Cahill in 2016. It&rsquo;s been on their cocktail menu from the brewery's opening, and has gained a cult following since.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/36mLvdhl5py2zMMnQF29tP/19b2605d4329a005693b0c8d284f0a3b/WetCity.png" alt="wet city facebook page" width="540px" />

Source: Facebook
But is the Spaghett a recession omen? The numbers are telling: Spaghett orders soared 65% in the first half of 2025 &mdash; up 1,000% since 2022 &mdash; according to Square.
So while it may taste like summer, the Spaghett&rsquo;s explosive popularity says just as much about the economic weather; it&rsquo;s a bittersweet signal that even happy hour isn&rsquo;t immune to recession vibes.
Cheers?
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

According to James Altucher: “China is quietly creating an AI empire that could soon rival Big Tech’s dominance. And almost nobody is talking about it.”